Wii is a phenomenon.

Well, I for one am sick and tired of... people saying they are sick and tired of these kind of thread

I don't think that it will get to 50% this year and Rubang, you seem to be forgetting that each increase is harder than the last one (if you sell 50% while your marketshare is 10% the jump will be bigger than if you sell 50% with a 48% marketshare).

Plus, I wonder how a $200 360 (and other 360 price cuts) would affect Wii's weekly marketshare. If it only sells more by mostly cannibalising PS3 sales then not much but if it sells more while not affecting PS3 sales too much it could make it a bit longer to get to 50%.

Sorry, Rubang, but you're committing a mathematical fallacy ;) The more market share the Wii gains, the slower it will gain market share if it sells at the same rates.

In order for it to happen by the end of November, the Wii would have to outsell PS3+360 combined by about 250k a week every week... That's not going to happen outside the holiday period.

My prediction is still February 2009.

Sri Lumpa said: Well, I for one am sick and tired of... people saying they are sick and tired of these kind of thread I don't think that it will get to 50% this year and Rubang, you seem to be forgetting that each increase is harder than the last one (if you sell 50% while your marketshare is 10% the jump will be bigger than if you sell 50% with a 48% marketshare). Plus, I wonder how a $200 360 (and other 360 price cuts) would affect Wii's weekly marketshare. If it only sells more by mostly cannibalising PS3 sales then not much but if it sells more while not affecting PS3 sales too much it could make it a bit longer to get to 50%.

Statistically you are right, but notice these threads have been recurring even faster while skipping numbers.

The 360 already costs less than the Wii in Others, and that's where the Wii's slaughtering is accelerating the fastest right now.

People are actually willing to pay more for the Wii, especially on Amazon or eBay or any forced bundles. For a huge portion of the population, the Wii is the only console they consider and it's just a matter of when they can afford it, when they can find it, and when more good games come out.

360 price cuts are like GTA4; they just make the Wii stronger.

While each increase does get harder, I think Wii's got enough leeway to overcome that since it's not selling 50-51% marketshare per week, but is consistently selling 55-65% marketshare per week.



I might be optimistic and maybe even a little naked and crazy, but I follow in the footsteps of the great Oracle JohnLucas and I stand by my prediction!

@Rubang: That still doesn't explain how the Wii could have enough supply to outsell PS3+360 by 250k a week.

I commend you for sticking to your prediction though ;)

Oops.

I forgot to look at the regular numbers instead of the percentages.

But the percentages HAVE been increasing faster than they were before.  It used to be a 0.1% increase every other week, and then it was every week, and now it's 0.1% or 0.2% every week, and it can hit 0.2% a couple weeks in a row.

And.... while it gets harder the closer it gets, that's when Black Friday and Christmas kick in and destroy the universe.

I still think it'll happen this year.  You just gotta believe in it hard enough!

go wii,i think 50% will happen in christmas week

Yeah, it can still happen this year, if Nintendo has stockpiled even more units than they're making it seem like (or if PS3/360 have a weaker holiday than expected).

Wii Fans make a thread about every percent gained!