Next gen, all 3 consoles will be more similar than they are this generation.

All 3 will likely incorporate Wii-like controls, albiet in their own way (some may try to take it a step further, whatever that may be) and all 3 will attempt to keep costs down rather than make another generational leap forwards in technology.

Consider just how good todays games look. So far as gamers are concerned, there's not much that can't be done except true photorealism, but that will never be accompished in the next 10 years.

In the end, the more spectacular the graphics are, the more the game costs. I think next generation, an attempt to make another tenfold leap will cost more than itwill gain. Better to focus that effort on game design, AI, user interface, etc, then on adding a few billion more pixels.

And all 3 companies will surely be chasing the casual dollar. Nintendo has shown that is too biga well to leave it untapped.

Finally, you can expect to see third party exclusives go the way of the ABA. It is too risky for a publisher to back a console that may end up with a PS3 type launch. By spreading out on all consoles the publishers will dramatically minimize their risks, and, surprise, end up pleasing more customer.

I love ambition. The N64 and PS3 are my two favorite consoles ever. 

And this gen is far, far from over.

No...Sony had a more well defined library from the PSX even though alot of games looked better on the 64. Both systems had memorable games, but Sony took the 3D JRPG to the next level, including sports titles, racing and more. They were more defined with Gran turismo, Warhawk was actually cool back then. Sonys 1st party made sense during the PSX. Those were also the final days of the beat em ups. When the PS2 came the 3rd party was it..they overran the PS2 1st party games in popularity. Give them an affordable console that shows promise and you'll gather the mass and all of the developers.

some chance.

In the next generation I expect that either Nintendo will increase its dominance, or the market will shift towards a more balanced position. Without any "Fanboy Goggles" on, consider what the market will look like in a couple of years ...

By the end of 2010 a mid-line graphics card will (probably) be able to render images that have twice the polygonal and texture detail (and twice as complicated of shaders) as Crysis on ultra high detail while outputting at a high resolution with a high framerate; this hardware will be very affordable when put into a console in 2011/2012 and, although you will be able to produce hardware with much higher performance, it will be rendering images at a quality that few people will notice an inprovement from more powerful hardware.

Game development costs will remain sky high, and few publishers are going to take the risk of banking on one platform; in particular, after this generation most publishers are going to be fully aware that they can choose the wrong horse. There will be developers who focus on "Lower Budget" games, but it is likely that those will be games with (much) polygonal and texture detail than any Wii game;which will result in very high development costs.

When you factor this in the market will (more or less) be made up of interchangeable products, and in most markets where that is the case you either have the market shift heavily towards one product or be fairly evenly spread.

Of course. The Wii is a casual fad just like you said. At least we've moved on to is the PS4 going to dominate. We have officially reached the acceptance stage.

They will continue to utilize the Cell so I guess Sony would be better off having the PS3 out for 15+ year lifetime. The separate Cell PPE and SPE architecture is hard to master for the average programmer and they will leave it on the market for a long time. That or they could pull a Sega...

Price was a bit of it but you can't argue that the lack of games has hurt the PS3 more than the price of it.

Yes...and what gathers the interest of people? Price. The more installed base your console has, the more developers become interested in your platform. FACT.

I think the more pertinent question would be whether there will in fact be a PS4 given what has already happened with the PS3. Sony may decide against being a console manufacturer at the end of this generation. Faced with the prospect of trying to defeat both Nintendo and Microsoft. Sony should have learned one thing from the console wars, and that is exactly how dangerous they can be to your bottom line.

What I am saying is this if Sony ends this generation billions in the hole, and with a hundred fences to mend. The management at Sony would be hard pressed to float the suggestion of a PS4 to investors. Who would see it as high risk no reward. Remember most console manufacturers are no longer console manufacturers. Gaming consoles are a risky venture. Sony may very well end up being another software developer like Sega and Atari. Hell given the competition it might be a smart move. Both Microsoft and Nintendo have the money to make the console generation even more brutal on Sony then this generation.

I think we need to see some real prolonged financial success out of Sony's game division before we should even speculate that they will remain in the console market.