All righty guys, back in April I made this post: Using Context Clues to Predict . Bear with me now, there’re gonna be a lotta numbers followed by analysis. 

Back in Mid April, before the major revisions, here were the numbers:
 

Wii - 6.58 Million
PS3 - 3.15 million.
XB360 - 9.68 million. 

Here are the current numbers:

Wii – 8.61
PS3 – 3.57
XB 360 – 10.07 

And here were my predictions
 

“Wii (June) - 9.2 million units sold
PS3 (June) - 4.3 million units sold
XB360 (June) - 10.6 million units”

Factor in a downward adjustment of about 6% on my predictions for all consoles sold because of the inaccuracies, and we sit at Wii – 8.65 million, PS3 – 4.04 million, and XB360 – 9.96 million. Next weeks numbers will show I was pretty accurate on the Wii numbers, high on the PS3, and low on the 360. 

Now, here’s what some people said about my very first post on here, when I made it; 

Kwaad: “I think the PS3 and 360 numbers are waaay low. The Wii numbers seem about right tho.”
 

Mrstickball: “Good post, but I think it misses the mark. The advantage the PS3 and 360 can and DO have is the advantage that if a blockbuster comes out, it has the ability to sell better than the Wii in terms of boosted units.” 

I respect both of these people for their insight, but I think people overestimated the power of single games to move consoles. Forza came and went, FEAR, VF5, blah, blah, and still no mad boost. 

Here’s the counter; “But Cdude! Games like Lair, and Halo, and X, Y, Z haven’t come out yet! There’s still some boost to be had!” 

Here’s the answer on your speculation; Name recognition will move consoles, and a whole bunch more people know the Halo name than the Lair name. Final Fantasy has name recognition, but I think we’re still almost a year out from that aren’t we? 

A $600 system will not sell like hotcakes if it’s competition includes a $250 bargain innovation, and a $400 clone. Don’t get me wrong, I love the PS3, the graphics are fantastic, but there’s simply no blockbuster support out there for it save for blu-ray movies, which is probably the main reason people are buying them anyway. 

The main upside for Sony? Blockbuster now supports Blu-Ray rentals. Huge. PS3 avg sales = .51 mil/mo. 

Enough about Sony, time for XB360 analysis. Honestly, I’m disappointed by the sales of this console. It’s been out for 19 months, and it’s sold a little more than 10 mil, for an average of .53 mil/mo. Even though this is more than the PS3, with solid games like Gears, I have a hard time seeing this being successful for too much longer after Halo. 

Microsoft’s pay-for-online-play is about to be challenged heavily by the free services like PS3’s Home and the Wii online play. Maybe prices will drop? We’ll see. 

The Wii. With a solid average of 1.23 mil/mo. Is in strong command of the console wars. It’s not how much you’ve sold so far, but how much you’re averaging, because those are the telling numbers when making predictions. Super Smash bros and Mario both have strong name recognition (Mario more so than the former). New games cost $10 less, VC library grows weekly…hard to see this have any kind of significant drop off any time in the near future. 

Online play is just starting…if Nintendo takes off with it and expands it to the point that MS and Sony have, then look out, Nintendo has an even brighter future than previously predicted. 

Now, here were my previous year end predictions; 

Wii (End '07) - 16.4 million units sold
PS3 ( End '07) - 6.9 million units sold
XB360 (End '07) - 13.9 million units sold 

And here are my new ones 

Wii – 14.6 million
PS3 – 5.3 million
XB360 – 13 million 

Now for the conclusion. 

The bottom line is people tend to overestimate the power of a single game to move a system as soon as it comes out. This is a mistake that’s happened time and time again, and these context clues should tell any reasonable person that an immediate jump in console sales outside of Christmas/Golden Week is unreasonable.

I'll write another check-up thread in about 3 months or so. 

Interesting. I agree with most part, especially overestimation of single games.

What I disagree on is the performance of the Xbox360. Considering that support is almost non-existant in Japan, and Europe is Sony Land, I would say Xbox360 is off to a fine start.

I'm not saying XB is doing poorly, I just think it should be doing better

I think it is doing very well, considering the circumstances. AND, the Red Ring of Death / Hardware Failure Rates.

Well then you're wrong

No.... People love the box.

You're right, 10 million people do love the box, but it has the potential to be loved by so many more.

 What? Did I say that? If I did I didn't mean too. I wrote this in word and revised it so many times I barely know what's in it any more

 To answer your question, no, I don't think Wii sales per month will decline much over this year.

 True, sir, true. We'll see where we're at in Sept. Though :) That's when I'll post the next version of this thread.

For the 360 - Should it really be doing well for a system that's 19 months old and still $400? Not really. Thats why sales have dipped.

Nice way to quote me, I said blockbusters. Only Forza 2 is anywhere close to that sort of assumption, and it did end up increasing sales in Europe for a week or two. Outside of FM2, there have not been any true blockbusters that would indeed entice new buyers to the system(s).

And when I made my statement, I was looking far in to the future to the August and September release schedules of the PS3/360, not just 3 months.

Your numbers, yet again, are way too low for the 360, and most likely for the PS3, if it does get a price drop + MGS4. But who knows, maybe this could indeed be the worst-selling year in history for video games as of late, as your predicting. If your numbers were the case, we'd have just under 20 million consoles sold this year. During the PS2 generation, sale averages were around 25m.

According to NPD, hardware has indeed been up YOY vs. 2006, and is mirrored in Japan as well. Wii has brought new life to the console market there, and will continue to do such.

But again, everything is just a prediction, not fact. And everything is subject to change, even my and your numbers.