Sorry dib8rman:

To clarify:

What if, from end of FY Jun 08, begin July 08 (12 months) - MSFT - just the XBox Platform - sells 25 million consoles - which is the same projected number that Nintendo have frome end of FY mar 08 begin Apr 08 (12 months)

All other PAST DATA being the same, without changes.

Sorry, I should have made that more clear.

So I am using past MSFT numbers, along with actual Nintendo projections (from Nintendo) to compare.

XBox platform = does not include PC games.

XBox platform = console + accessories + games + Live

What would you have to do to entice 25 million people to buy the console? To me this is too huge a factor to ignore. I get it's a hypothetical, but you can't just ignore the single biggest issue.

It would be like saying what if the 360 didn't have Halo, Gears of War and GTA? That's a hypothetical too, but just because I can say it doesn't mean it's worthy of discussion.

Oh, I'm not in disagreement at all.  That is basically impossible for the X360.

But not impossible for a console in general - see Wii and/or PS2.

I wanted to show what it would look like if the 360 sells as well as the Wii going forward, what it would look like financially.

One idea but farfetched due to many issues:

They can make the 360 like a cell phone:

Buy with a plan - unlimited games for $19.99 or $29.99 or whatever, partner with a cable company(ies) and get a free 360- everything included - free games, free online play.

extra revenue - download weapons, pics, themes, and other microcontent.

maybe some PAY PER PLAY SPECIAL GAMES or a combo of games.  It's easy to be creative. Just like the numerous cel phone plans out there.

Just like a cel phone - you can buy an phone for $300 or $500 bucks, but free if you sign a 3 or 5 year contract.  Same model with a cel phone manufacturer.    YOu don't see many cel phone manufacturers selling their phones at a loss.

If MSFT decides they want to make gaming a "utility", this is where the big money lies.  Not in selling individual consoles.

It can be implemented, just have to find the will and willing partners to do it.  The future is the "network", just like the slogan.

Once you have that, games will explode as their will always be funds (kind of) to fund new games, while taking away some risk for the developers.

All games will be automatically new - eg. Madden 2008 - auto upgrade to 2009 - because of the guaranteed revenues and everybody can play with everybody, without worrying about "newer" versions - for those types of games.

My 2 cents.

The subscription model has been tried in the music industry multiple times and failed for the most part.

But it has never been tried with games, I don't think.
It works with cel phones.
Also, now that online is becoming a bigger part of games, maybe there is a chance for it to work.

Look at WoW.

What if?

I don't even think it works with cell phones. Look at the iPhone, the applications are sold individually. Same goes with ring tones and other copyrighted content.

Yes, I understand.

This is my reasoning:
What are cel phones for? Content. What content? Personal communication - that is "multiplayer" interaction.

Of course, day to day communication is different.
But there is enough similarities that it MAY work - if done right.

I think some websites already offer unlimited gaming for a fee.
but they also have pay per play - at very reasonable rates.

its not that simple, but can be doable.
will it work? will never know until someone actually tries it.

IF and only IF Microsoft drops price completely to $299, people will purchase multiples more than they did. The mass purchasers are waiting for their chance to get their hands on these next gen consoles. Microsoft would sell hand over fist if they dropped price, increasing installed base and luring more 3rd party developers over to them.

maybe. the original point of the thread though is not to figure out how to sell 25 million x360 consoles.

the point is to see WHAT happens IF msft sells 25 million consoles.

basically, it will be just a bit more profitable than nintendo.

which is why for both xbox and ps3 to sell tons of consoles.

You've just created a paradox though. It cannot sell 25 million without significant changes in their business model. However those changes would render any fiscal calculations based on current sales useless.