We are at an interesting point, the Xbox360 has reached the 20,000,000 mark so now we can talk about the next 10 million and the likely sales towards the end of the year.

Data points for sales:

MrStickball:

"The X360 sold 5.3m units from July 28th to Dec. 29th according to VGC.

For reference, the Xbox 360 sold 2.6m in the same time period of Jan- Jul 21th, 2007. The X360 has sold 4.2m in the same timeframe - an increase of 1.6m units.

So it's certainly possible. If the X360 sold at the same rate, we'd get 25.3m units (give or take a few thousand). If it sold at the same YOY increase, the X360 would sell roughly 28m units by the end of the year.

So it should be in between 25.3m and 28m"

Required sales rate to reach different milestones.

• 10,000,000/22 weeks = 454,000 average per week required.
• 9,000,000/22 weeks = 410,000 average per week required.
• 8,000,000/22 weeks = 363,000 average per week required.
• 7,000.000/22 weeks = 318,000 average per week required.
• 6,000,000/22 weeks = 272,000 average per week required.
• 5,000,000/22 weeks = 227,000 average per week required.
• 4,000,000/22 weeks = 181,000 average per week required.

• 3,000,000/22 weeks  =136,000 average per week required.

Average sales rate last year from this point.

• 240,000 Per week at current rate.

• 363,000 if the YOY increase is steady throughout the year.

Important games/events to indicate or influence future sales trends:

• Netflix/Gamefly deal - question of how much it will affect the U.S sales rate. The importantce is unknown at this point. Add this together with Lips, You're in the Movies, 100-1 and Rares games and you have what looks like an attempt to broaden the userbase of the console.
• MTV and Rockband - Its a huge event to launch Rock Band 2 and its a hell of a lot of free or cheap advertising from MTV towards one of the Xbox360's key demographics.
• Tales of Vesperia sales, this game should serve as a beacon to highlight Microsofts success/failure in winning over the JRPG fans and their market segment.
• Fable 2: Microsoft has been doing a heavy push in the RPG genre this year, this game is a keystone to whether or not they will succeed. Both sales and any console sales increases should be quite indicitive of any future success in this genre.
• Price cut: Obviously, the question is if and when?
• Japan is a key region, not because of its importance in terms of sales for the Xbox360, but in its indication of Microsofts ability to win over new market segments.

very interesting, ill throw in at 27.5 million this year, with 4 million coming in the holidays. i do expect a normal price drop once the invintory is clear of 20gb units

Hmmm very nicely done... I feel it will end the year around 26 Million..

it took the 360 3 years just to get to 20 million!! i highly doubt its going to get to 27.5 million in just 5 months!! lets be realistic here! by the end of the year, 360 should be around 23-24 million.

It November already?

no, but you catch my drift! to be more precise, 2 years and 9 months!

I would my expectations are somewhere between 26-28 million myself, from today onwards towards the end of the year.

@solidsnake08, it has to due with % of sale increasing year to year. sales would have to go down heading into the fall for there to be less than 25 million

madden wil be the first test this year always a hardware boost then.

so from what your saying, the ps3 is going to double the sales it did last year? thats impossible!

the 360 will end around 24 million and the ps3 20 million! thats what i think.

i just have to comment on your sig on the 360 outselling ps3! sorry but it aint gonna happen! during the holidays the sales from europe alone would be enough for ps3 to outsell 360.