Hus said: scorptile said: as for the OP if the ps3 does make it to that then the wii will be roughly around 300 million easy cause if you havnt noticed the wii is outselling the ps3 2 to 1. also the wii is tracking way ahead of what the ps2 did last gen which the wii will become the best seller this gen. microsoft already conceeded that to nintendo by just taking aim at the ps3 and not the wii. in fact there are rumors now microsoft is talkin with nintendo about something which could very well could mean the end days of the playstation. Before PS3 is done, wii 3 will be coming out think wii waggle and graphics maybe close to the current PS3 games No way in hell is NIN even remotly dumb enough to ever get into a deal with MS.

Serious HA! at your first sentence. If I knew you to be a reliable person I would make some form of bet with you that AT EARLIEST the next Nintendo console comes out only 1 year before the next Sony console.... and in all probability will be a year later.

I don't kno what to say about the MS thing because I haven't heard of any deal.

naraku2099 said: BengaBenga said: lol, this is posted several times now and there's no way PS3 will ever reach that or even PS1 level sales ever. The competition for the core gamer is stronger, the massive amount of casuals that were on PS2 are buying Wii's and there are only a handfull of important exclusives left. Don't be dissing PS3 yet buddy. We're not far into the console's life cycle yet so you can't say that.

 

How am I dissing the PS3?

I'm saying it won't ever sell close to 100 million consoles, that's not dissing, that's called reality.

Dissing would be saying something like "PS3 sucks", but that's noty what I'm saying. It's a great machine and certainly has fantastic games, but it will be around 20 million after 3 holiday periods. There is nothing that will cause a dramatic increase.

Let's do some number crunching:

End 2008: 20 million (I think we can all agree it will be somewhere around that)
End 2009: 35 million (with a 50% increase, which is a lot because the big games GT5 and FF13 will probably still not be therere)
End 2010: 55 million (Here I've gone completely PS3-positive and gave it Wii/PS2 sales numbers in its 4th year, while usually 2+3 are peak years)
End 2011: 70 million (15 million in its 5th year is a very positive prediction, but who knows)

See what I did? Even when I'm very positive it won't come close to PS2 numbers, cause that's what the discussion is about. At 60 million PS3 has a fine userbase, so I don't see what the problem is. Just accept that PS3 isn't the PS2. It's totally different. PS2 was the people's machine, PS3 is more of an elite device. Of course it will sell less.

 

 

@BengaBenga,
1) did PS3 already reached mass market price (199-299$)?
2) did PS3 already get all it`s main AAA games?
3) http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=Japan&cons3=PS3&reg3=Japan&weeks=400 are FFXIII, GT5 already released in Japan? =)

I agree with Benga.

By the way, Benga, the PS3 is no PS2, but for a system that was so trashed by everyone since its release, compared to the 3DO, etc...to finish the gen at around 60 million is not bad at all....a far cry from the PS2, but in its own right, considering everything against it, it´s a fine number, agree?

JGarret said: I agree with Benga. By the way, Benga, the PS3 is no PS2, but for a system that was so trashed by everyone since its release, compared to the 3DO, etc...to finish the gen at around 60 million is not bad at all....a far cry from the PS2, but in its own right, considering everything against it, it´s a fine number, agree?

 

Yeah, absolutely. 60 million would be great. I'm sure with such numbers the PS3 can be profitable and will be a good place for game development, so in no way I'm saying the PS3 is doing bad, just don't overestimate the potential.


Crazzy: No, it's not at mass market price. But the selling potential at a higher price says something about its potential to sell at lower price. PS2 was $300 at launch and sold like crazy.

And most AAA titles are released. I don't see how you always take that route, because the best selling PS2 game is there: GTA, MGS is there. FF is not exclusive anymore and we've seen from GTA what that means for hardware sales. The only big exclusive left is Gran Turismo 5, but I hope you agree that a game that will launch in 2010 won't impact the sales very much. That's too late. Besides that game has stiff competition from Forza now. All the important games are multiplat now, it will have some impact, but very little.

You just don't see or don't accept that Wii is taken up an huge part of the PS2 audience. Most of those will only buy one console. Cause it's the crowd that buys Lego games and Guitar Hero. They don't care a lot about graphics or AI.

The problem PS3 has compared to the PS2 is the less popular genres are not there or will be even more on the Wii and X360. The sims, puzzle and strategy games that pulled in the fringe gaming population to the PS2 because if you wanted any choice in those games, PS2 was the only place to get them at.

Now, it's the reverse. X360 and even moreso the Wii have and will continue to have at least and usually more types of those games than the PS3.

Blu-Ray will help, of course. But with BR players already cheaper than PS3, should I wait until the price drops on a PS3 and I can afford to buy it for BR and games? Or should I go ahead and buy a cheaper BR player now. Each cheaper BR player bought now is potentially a lost sale for PS3.

1) ps3 is only on a way to get 299$/euro price. What makes you think, that at this price ps3 won`t sell like crazy?

2) FFXIII is still EXCLUSIVE in Japan. Forza 2 DOES NOT exist in Japan. Europe will chose GT5 over Forza 3 any day. So will and Japan.
http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Others&game1=Forza+Motorsport+2+-+X360&reg2=Others&game2=Gran+Turismo+5+Prologue+-+PS3&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=62 and THIS is without ONLINE sales.

3) MGS4 already give a boost in ps3 sales and will continue with 80GB bundles.

4) Since Wii launch ~18 mln. PS2 and ~15 mln. PS3 were sold. While only ~30 mln. Wii.
Wii is getting it`s userbase FROM GC owners and casual NON-gamers most. Very FEW ps2 owners moved to Wii.

CrazzyMan said: 1) ps3 is only on a way to get 299$/euro price. What makes you think, that at this price ps3 won`t sell like crazy? 2) FFXIII is still EXCLUSIVE in Japan. Forza 2 DOES NOT exist in Japan. Europe will chose GT5 over Forza 3 any day. So will and Japan. http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Others&game1=Forza+Motorsport+2+-+X360&reg2=Others&game2=Gran+Turismo+5+Prologue+-+PS3&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=62 and THIS is without ONLINE sales. 3) MGS4 already give a boost in ps3 sales and will continue with 80GB bundles. 4) Since Wii launch ~18 mln. PS2 and ~15 mln. PS3 were sold. While only ~30 mln. Wii. Wii is getting it`s userbase FROM GC owners and casual NON-gamers most. Very FEW ps2 owners moved to Wii.

 

1) Cause it has COMPETITION. PS2 didn't have competition when it launched and the GC and Xbox had far less exclusives than PS2, because PS1 was so successful most games went directly to PS2. Wii is the fastest selling console ever and 360 has gained almost all the important games.

2) Japan is dead for HD gaming. Face it. The PS3 tracks slightly above gamecube and at the current pace will need 100 weeks to sell another million. FF13 will do something, but nothing that changes the dynamics.
Sure Europe will choose GT5, I'm not saying PS3 will lose from 360, we're talking about PS2 level sales for PS3. Unless you believe GT5 will sell 20 million consoles your point is moot.

3) MGS4 boost is over. It boosted around 500.000 consoles. Impressive. Yet doesn't change much.

4) Sure, keep living in dreamworld. This December Wii will be at 45 million. If you really believe that can be achieved without massive movement from PS2 owners to Wii your name serves you well. There are 50 million PS2's in the US alone. The non-gamer is a myth. Families buy Wii's now, where they used to buy PS2's. The only thing that changed is the usage of the console in the household. It's not only the device of the kids anymore, everyone uses it.
But please keep believing that the Wii is not competing. Just don't be surprised in a few years that the world changed before your eyes without you noticing it.

1) Wii doesn`t compete with PS3, only with PS2. PS3 is HD.
Last gen: PS2 - GC - xbox - all 3 consoles were in SAME category, while this gen: PS3/x360 - HD, Wii - SD+non-gamers.
SO, why not get Wii+PS3, since they are DIFFERENT?

IF you say, that GRAPHICS doesn`t matter to Casual gamer, THEN why people moved from PSone to PS2?

x360 is losing to PS3 every week.

2)

Yet, MGS4 sell first week as good as previous iterations. Japan just need more PS3 games. Most new PS3 games already pass 100k on first week sales, this is a good sign.

3) Many other 3 mln. seller are coming later this year.

4) Massive movement to Wii? LoL. WHY would (85 mln. PS2 owners) buy Wii????? WHAT are reasons???
Wii get sales from casual NON-gamers + Nintendo fans.

PS3 can`t be used as Blu-ray player in a Family??? Anyway, time will show, who was right. And i think, by the end of 2008 fiscal year, you gonna change your mind about ps3.)

CrazzyMan said: 1) Wii doesn`t compete with PS3, only with PS2. PS3 is HD. Last gen: PS2 - GC - xbox - all 3 consoles were in SAME category, while this gen: PS3/x360 - HD, Wii - SD+non-gamers. SO, why not get Wii+PS3, since they are DIFFERENT? IF you say, that GRAPHICS doesn`t matter to Casual gamer, THEN why people moved from PSone to PS2? x360 is losing to PS3 every week. 2) Japan is dead for HD gaming. Yet, MGS4 sell first week as good as previous iterations. Japan just need more PS3 games. Most new PS3 games already pass 100k on first week sales, this is a good sign. 3) Many other 3 mln. seller are coming later this year. 4) Massive movement to Wii? LoL. WHY would (85 mln. PS2 owners) buy Wii????? WHAT are reasons??? Wii get sales from casual NON-gamers + Nintendo fans. PS3 can`t be used as Blu-ray player in a Family??? Anyway, time will show, who was right. And i think, by the end of 2008 fiscal year, you gonna change your mind about ps3.)

1.  Just to humor you the only difference between PS and PS2 games was graphics since the controller stayed the same.  Now graphics have been slightly increased from the GC and there's a brand new input method which many people seem to prefer to play games.  Like it or not Wii games wouldn't be the same on the PS2 using a dualshock. Also people pretty much had to move from PS to PS2 since Sony started putting the major games on PS2.  Gamers follow the games.  This generation a lot of the PS2 franchises are multiplat so many PS2 core gamers have bought a 360 and may not buy a PS3.  The casual gamers are flocking to the Wii and they are unlikely to be multiple console owners.

And if you honestly think PS2 owners haven't bought Wiis then gaming may be collapsing as the PS3/360 userbase should be much much higher.

2.  The most loyal of the core gamer obviously bought PS3s already.  That's why software sales for major AAA titles are still good.  But HW sales fell back down from MGS4's boost pretty quickly.  They're already back around 10,000 weekly.  Every week the Wii sells in Japan close to what the PS3 does in a month.

3.  And other consoles won't get more million sellers?  The problem with you Crazzy is you focus only on the PS3's promising future while ignoring anything from the competitors.  Just like the Wii/360 titles don't interest you, the PS3 titles you love to talk about don't interest everybody else.

4.  WHAT are reasons???  People like the Wii!  That's all the reason they need to buy it.  Obviously you don't.  That's fine.  But just accept the fact that for many people the Wii is a solid console and they like to have fun with the new controls.  Just like you can shrug off the Wii's motion controls and library as irrelevant any list you make of reasons to get a PS3 can also be shrugged off by somebody else.

Also you say by the end of FY 08 Benga will realize he was mistaken.  Right now, what are your predictions for end of FY '08?