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Forums - Sales - Thibje predicts the future of the Xbox 360.

ckmlb on 25 June 2007

I think Mass Effect will be the biggest hit on 360 outside of Halo, GTA and Gears.



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ckmlb on 25 June 2007
Parokki said:
It will be very interesting to see how Xbox 360 sales develop this year. On one hand it has some extremely promising titles coming up, but on the other they're all the kinds of games people have been buying the console for all along. The boost in sales, that is definitely coming mind you, might be massive, or it might be that most people who want Halo 3/GTA 4 already have one.

I think there will definitely be at least a few months of crazy sales, although a price drop would probably boost sales more than any single game. My guess is that they'll see how many consoles they can still move at 400 with Halo 3 out, and then drop a hundred off the price before the holiday shopping madness if the boost to sales isn't truly insane.
I think there might be an argument for a lot of Halo fans already having 360s but not the GTA people, most of them probably don't even know the new GTA is coming yet. Once we get close to GTA and people start seeing commercials of the mayhem on tv they will flock to the gamestores and ask: 'What do I need to play GTA?'

 



Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

thibje on 25 June 2007

Yes , I think the same but we still don't know the official release date.



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mrstickball on 25 June 2007

I disagree with everyone. Your numbers for the US and Japan for h/w are very good, and just about where I'd view them out. Europe seems low, as it should get around 6m, as the major software (GTAIV and H3) should do quite a bit better than you have.

Outside of that, I'd put H3 and GTAIV a bit higher - expecially GTAIV. Outside of that, good job. Everyone will give you flak, but thats because they don't think price drops are relevant.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

ArtofAngels on 25 June 2007
HappySqurriel said:
The Xbox 360 has sold 6,400,000 units after 18 months on the market so I think that it is highly unlikely that it will sell another 4,885,000 in 6 months; essentially you're suggesting that it will sell 75% as many units as it has to date in 33% of the time (or that it will sell at approximately 2.3 times its average rate over the next 6 months).

Game, set and match.

(I just looked @ you mrstickballs yearly prediction and it was 2 mill above this dudes o.O)

I hope your rank doesn't slide.

However I agree his Europe numbers could be higher though.

Guess we'll all just have to play the waiting game.

I don't think Japan will sell 150k 360's in December, and I definitly don't think 360 will sell 3 Million untis in 2 months is the US.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but it just seems so unlikely to me.



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mrstickball on 25 June 2007

In Japan, the 360 sold 100k units in December 2006, and week over week, the 360 is tracking 100% above last years, and for all purposes, Lost Odyssey will be a bit bigger than Blue Dragon was last year. LO might (or should) launch a week earlier, therefore affecting sales in Dec. longer.

My rank on the prediction league wouldn't slide on 1 prediction. The past 4 weeks, I've been in the top 5, 3 out of 4 times.

Again, my prediction numbers (17.5m for 360 and 17.0m for Wii) are based on the X360 getting a September price drop, and selling briskly for the rest of the year, driven by massive (4m in NA for Sept-Dec) and 2.5m in Europe + another 250k in Japan in the same timeframe. Impossible given current numbers, but I believe a price drop + GTAIV/H3 will be the biggest boost to a single console in history (next to FFVII on PS1).

My Wii prediction is based on Nintendo basically selling near 100% of their systems up until that time. I put 17m down far before Nintendo announced their goal of 20m systems shipped by March, which would put 17m pretty much at 100% accuracy by December 31st.

So overall, I'm not afraid one bit about my X360 and Wii predictions. The only one I know I'm off is the DS. I put it @ either 54.5 or 52.5m. It'll proably track closer to 57.5~60m by the EOY if Nintendo can send enough systems to Japan.

We'll see how accurate I am in a week, as June will be over, and we can tally scores from the Apr to June prediction league. And I'm the only one that had Brain Training for the Wii pegged at 50k for 2 weeks :)



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.