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Forums - Sales - Thibje predicts the future of the Xbox 360.

Actually everything on that chart is possible and lots of it is plausible. So everybody gets you can't and won'ts aways and replace it with perhaps



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The thing that really caught my eye is that you had Halo 3 boosting Japanese numbers. In case you didn't know, Japanese don't like First Person Shooters. No matter how famous they are. 360 will never do well in Japan. They don't have a Japanese development company and they focus on the exact opposite side of the spectrum that the Japanese like. Namely RPGs.

As for your American section. Bioshock will be a system seller but certainly not gonna increase demand three fold. it might go from 200 000 to 250 or 300 but not much higher. Halo 3 will create that kind of demand. I guess the Holidays would account for those numbers though. Anyone have the numbers on when the holidays usually bump the sales up? Infact I think you mods should make a news post on that.



Andrew said:
Actually everything on that chart is possible and lots of it is plausible. So everybody gets you can't and won'ts aways and replace it with perhaps

 Halo 2 sold less then 6.5 Million units in North America after 3 years of being on the market and he expects it to sell that many units in 3 months ... Beyond that it would be likely that Halo 3 and Grand Theft Auto 4 may each double XBox 360 sales in the month of release but it is not plausable that they will tripple or quadruple system sales the month of release.

Seriously, 3 Million copies of Halo and 4 Million XBox 360s for the rest of the year is optimistic but reasonable; beyond that is poor analysis.



how optimistic! that'd be true if we didnt have wii and ps3 on sale like on nov05 ,seriously,those numbers are TOO DAMN arrogant and optimistic specially japan's,the 360 WILL NEVER sell over 30000 on a month in japan



Sullla said:

I appreciate the time and effort that went into these estimates, but they're far too optimistic (as others have said). In 19 months on the market, the 360 has sold 6.37 million consoles in America; you're predicting almost 5 million sales in the next 6 months? Appreciate the enthusiasm, but that's not going to happen. Somewhere in the 3-4 million range is much more likely, and will still make for a very good year for Microsoft.

Let me also state this: there's a zero percent chance that Halo 3 sells 7.8 million copies this year. 7.8 million! That's absolutely crazy; no game outside of Pokemon Diamond/Silver will do that well this year. There are only 10 million 360s in the entire world right now, and even Halo won't have an attach rate approaching 80%. Over the game's entire lifespan, maybe, but certainly not in a single holiday season.

The Japan predictions for the 360 are actually the craziest of all (150k sales in a single month?!), but with the numbers so low over there, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

You do realize that you are predicting no less than 14 different million sellers for the 360 this year, right? On a console with an installed base of only 10 million total.... umm, well, it's possible, I suppose.

* About Halo 3 you're right 7,8 million is to much so I changed the numbers to 5,790,000.
* About Japan I didn't changed the numbers because the 360 sold 100,000 consoles in december '06.
* About America I don't expect a price cut this year. There might be one in March '08. 
* But I appreciate your oppinion and we will see who's right. ;)


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Too optimistic I think, I have a feeling the 360 sales are either gonna stay where they are lately or go down further until Halo 3 then they will be up for the rest of the year but won't reach 1.7 mil in December.



Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

You think Mass Effect will sell 2,200,000 copies in America alone? Dear Lord, I think alot of those figures are still very high.



 

It will be very interesting to see how Xbox 360 sales develop this year. On one hand it has some extremely promising titles coming up, but on the other they're all the kinds of games people have been buying the console for all along. The boost in sales, that is definitely coming mind you, might be massive, or it might be that most people who want Halo 3/GTA 4 already have one.

I think there will definitely be at least a few months of crazy sales, although a price drop would probably boost sales more than any single game. My guess is that they'll see how many consoles they can still move at 400 with Halo 3 out, and then drop a hundred off the price before the holiday shopping madness if the boost to sales isn't truly insane.



Holy crap @ those predictions!!!!!!!!

Wow, I admire your optimism, however, prepare to be very very disappointed.



Dallinor said:
You think Mass Effect will sell 2,200,000 copies in America alone? Dear Lord, I think alot of those figures are still very high.
* I think you're right 1,400,000 might be better.
* But I think I am very right about Japan.

 



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