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Forums - Sony - Is Blue ray the future or digiatal distribution?

Alright, well first of all if you are going to claim that Itunes ALONE is outselling CD's, at least cite some data. All estimates I have seen put digital distribution for music at 30% of the market and CD's at the rest.

And comparing downloading a song to downloading an entire movie is an inherently flawed thing to do.



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*sigh*

3 threads in two days is a bit much for me; all I will add to this thread, is to encourage people to look at On Demand and Roku, if you think that people don't want to use computers; neither of them require computers.

You can check any of the other threads about this recently if you want my reasoning behind why digital distribution has already won the war for the future, and why DVD will last the mainstream till then.



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DD is a the future of rentals. No big HDD is needed. Stream and delete after 24 hours.
BD is the future of purchases. Although this market will eventually be smaller than DD.



Kasz216 said:
FilaBrasileiro said:
Kasz216 said:

Too soon to tell.

Blu-ray is trailing heavily behind DVD during it's first few years. Still it's doing a little better the Laserdisc in the physical media market.

It's probably doing worse then Laserdisc when you take into account expanded audience of the buisness with more DVDS sold and VOD and other services... but the Industries are really behind blu-ray and putting up a lot of propoganda because they'd like to sell their movies one more time before the switch to VOD. So it's still got a fighting chance.

You don't need broadband for VOD content... just cable.

 

If I had to guess... i'd expect DVD to stay ahead for a few more years... eventually with Blu-ray and VOD splitting the market for a while.

People who really care about HD and having hard copies will go with Blu-ray while most other people will go VOD. Once downloads get fast enough everywhere and they have a storage solution...

Digital Distribution will win in the end. At some places you might have to still go to a store and download what you want onto a Zipdrive type thing though.

 

Do you have a link? I would like to read on that and I take it that's for America and not WW?

Worldwide.

As of June.... Blu-ray has sold 11 Million Disks

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=1355


Comparativly DVD had sold 16.3 Million disks around the same time Blu-ray and HDVD had sold a combined 8.3 million.

http://www.movieweb.com/dvd/news/20/26720.php

So... Blu-ray is at least 5.3 million discs behind.

When you realize that more discs are sold now then VHS and DVDs were when DVD was new... you see the gap is even worse.

Basically. It would be as if you had less money then someone from 1970 without even adjusting for inflation. You actually have even less money then he does. Hence why adjusting for "inflation" in the video market Blu-ray may actually be behind laserdisc.

Thanks for the link, but Home Media Magazine (your first link) is America only, it was also expected for DVD to outpace Blu Ray (and HD DVD) while there was a format war going on.


According to these articles, Blu Ray is outpacing DVD:

 

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6572676.html

 

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/30809/Blu-Ray-sales-outpacing-DVD

 



Doktor85 said:
DD is a the future of rentals. No big HDD is needed. Stream and delete after 24 hours.
BD is the future of purchases. Although this market will eventually be smaller than DD.

I believe so too...this would be my ideal scenario.

 



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FilaBrasileiro said:
Kasz216 said:
FilaBrasileiro said:
Kasz216 said:

Too soon to tell.

Blu-ray is trailing heavily behind DVD during it's first few years. Still it's doing a little better the Laserdisc in the physical media market.

It's probably doing worse then Laserdisc when you take into account expanded audience of the buisness with more DVDS sold and VOD and other services... but the Industries are really behind blu-ray and putting up a lot of propoganda because they'd like to sell their movies one more time before the switch to VOD. So it's still got a fighting chance.

You don't need broadband for VOD content... just cable.

 

If I had to guess... i'd expect DVD to stay ahead for a few more years... eventually with Blu-ray and VOD splitting the market for a while.

People who really care about HD and having hard copies will go with Blu-ray while most other people will go VOD. Once downloads get fast enough everywhere and they have a storage solution...

Digital Distribution will win in the end. At some places you might have to still go to a store and download what you want onto a Zipdrive type thing though.

 

Do you have a link? I would like to read on that and I take it that's for America and not WW?

Worldwide.

As of June.... Blu-ray has sold 11 Million Disks

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=1355


Comparativly DVD had sold 16.3 Million disks around the same time Blu-ray and HDVD had sold a combined 8.3 million.

http://www.movieweb.com/dvd/news/20/26720.php

So... Blu-ray is at least 5.3 million discs behind.

When you realize that more discs are sold now then VHS and DVDs were when DVD was new... you see the gap is even worse.

Basically. It would be as if you had less money then someone from 1970 without even adjusting for inflation. You actually have even less money then he does. Hence why adjusting for "inflation" in the video market Blu-ray may actually be behind laserdisc.

Thanks for the link, but Home Media Magazine (your first link) is America only, it was also expected for DVD to outpace Blu Ray (and HD DVD) while there was a format war going on.


According to these articles, Blu Ray is outpacing DVD:

 

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6572676.html

 

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/30809/Blu-Ray-sales-outpacing-DVD

 

I've already debunked those two articles in a previous thread. Drive adoption stats are useless when all PS3s are counted as movie players. If you do count it as suck, Blu-ray players have a worse attach rate then the PSP.

Also show me where it says it's America only? Every site i see says it's worldwide.

http://www.techpowerup.com/61987/Blu-ray_Disc_Sales_Hit_11_Million_Mark.html

Even if it were so you would have to deal with the fact that Blu-ray has been on the market for an extra year then the 16.5 figure for DVD. 1997-1998 vs 2006-2008. Up to a year advantage depending on when the first DVD player released.

The second article is just silly. 17 vs 21? What other then home movies is blu-ray used for that DVD wasn't it's first few years?   Let alone dual layer machines... which means... like nothing.   I mean what does dual layer have to do with total sales?  If anything that has to do with nothing but PS3 games... because what else even uses dual layered discs?

That answers that article.



Kasz216 said:

I've already debunked those two articles in a previous thread. Drive adoption stats are useless when all PS3s are counted as movie players. If you do count it as suck, Blu-ray players have a worse attach rate then the PSP.

Also show me where it says it's America only? Every site i see says it's worldwide.

http://www.techpowerup.com/61987/Blu-ray_Disc_Sales_Hit_11_Million_Mark.html

Even if it were so you would have to deal with the fact that Blu-ray has been on the market for an extra year then the 16.5 figure for DVD. 1997-1998 vs 2006-2008. Up to a year advantage depending on when the first DVD player released.

The second article is just silly. 17 vs 21? What other then home movies is blu-ray used for that DVD wasn't it's first few years? Let alone dual layer machines... which means... like nothing. I mean what does dual layer have to do with total sales? If anything that has to do with nothing but PS3 games... because what else even uses dual layered discs?

That answers that article.

 

Honestly I don't think you've debunked anything, but I'm too tired to counterargue so I'll let you walk way victoriously. And your link is the same as the other one, home media magazine only tracks America/US AFAIK.



FilaBrasileiro said:
Kasz216 said:

I've already debunked those two articles in a previous thread. Drive adoption stats are useless when all PS3s are counted as movie players. If you do count it as suck, Blu-ray players have a worse attach rate then the PSP.

Also show me where it says it's America only? Every site i see says it's worldwide.

http://www.techpowerup.com/61987/Blu-ray_Disc_Sales_Hit_11_Million_Mark.html

Even if it were so you would have to deal with the fact that Blu-ray has been on the market for an extra year then the 16.5 figure for DVD. 1997-1998 vs 2006-2008. Up to a year advantage depending on when the first DVD player released.

The second article is just silly. 17 vs 21? What other then home movies is blu-ray used for that DVD wasn't it's first few years? Let alone dual layer machines... which means... like nothing. I mean what does dual layer have to do with total sales? If anything that has to do with nothing but PS3 games... because what else even uses dual layered discs?

That answers that article.

 

Honestly I don't think you've debunked anything, but I'm too tired to counterargue so I'll let you walk way victoriously. And your link is the same as the other one, home media magazine only tracks America/US AFAIK.

That's the point. Not one website has reported it as US only.

All the talk of Blu-ray adoption being ahead of DVD is blu-ray player adoption... and all because of the PS3. Disc adoption is FAR behind.

DVD in it's 2nd quarter of 1999 Shipped 13.9 Million DVDs... in the US alone.

98 Million on the year. I don't see Blu-ray shipping 98 million discs unless you use some funny math including PS3 games... and even then that seems pretty impossible.

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/CES010807.htm

Even if it was just the US that would be 11 Million discs VS DVDs 50.1 Million. Which granted would be shipped... but I don't see over 39 million blu-ray movies sitting on store shelves.

Considering that the US has bought more HD discs then Europe combined... Blu-ray worldwide hasn't even come close to DVD even if it was US only.



Blu-ray and VOD will both be the future format. Most people don not have the internet speeds to do VOD, so they have no option but Blu-ray for HD movies. Personally I will only rent VOD from now on, but I will still buy Blu-ray if I want to own somthing.



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KBG29 said:
Blu-ray and VOD will both be the future format. Most people don not have the internet speeds to do VOD, so they have no option but Blu-ray for HD movies. Personally I will only rent VOD from now on, but I will still buy Blu-ray if I want to own somthing.

If you have acess to cable you have enough speed for VOD.

It works basically like a paperview... and can be set up to put a key on your HD or top box. (not the whole movie) so that whenever you click on it it will stream.