Grammar, syntax, spelling, etc....    The lack of these compositional elements in your post does not help the Sony side of the debate very well.

I'm thinking that there will be another Playstation before 2017 so the sales would definitely dip below 10 million a year before that. Selling 100 million consoles is not easy. It's amazing that it happened for both PS and PS2. The Wii will struggle tosell 100 million consoles. It will probably do it but I wouldn't be shocked if it didn't. Sorry, but no 100 million this time for Sony.

Axumblade, MS and Nintendo didn't ignore their previous consoles when the next generation came out, retail and consumer base did. MS and Nintendo cannot sell product if the Xbox and GC are no longer bought buy retailers.

This is why Sony cannot just say they'll have a 10 year console because that is 100% OUR decision, not theirs.

i think ps3 will rocket past the 20 million mark by xmas, it could even rocket past 23 million mark.

and from then on ps3 will sell bucket loads weekly, once a further price cut is in effect in mid 2009 im sure it could achieve those levels

It can't.  Sony has only allocated resources to produce 10 million during the FY which ends March 31st, 2009.

That means a maximum sold of 21 million by the end of March, 2009.  It's likely that given production and shipment rates for that 10 million, the PS3 will still be under 20 million by the end of the year.

This doesn't take into account hardware production increases but they have not announced any yet and I doubt they do because this FY their strategy is wholly focused on profit margin increase, not market penetration increase.

No one is saying anything about MS and Nintendo here.  We all know the Sony hype, and we've all seen them lie about the PS3 lots of times before.

The whole point of this exercise is to say, "we know exactly what Sony says, but is that feasible?"  The answer is probably, "no, it's not likely feasible."

The PS2 looks like it *may* reach a 10 year life cycle, but it has been able to do that for a few reasons that won't be true for the PS3.  Here is the big, #1 reason.

It's significantly cheaper than Sony's next gen tech and costs much less for Sony to produce.  Sony can sell it for $130 and make a big profit.  Sales are good, the PS3's price is high.  This helps the PS2.  Here are a few other key differences.

The PS2 never cost nearly as much as the PS3.  The PS2 seems to have price-reduced much faster and more effectively.  The PS2 got Sony to profitability right away.  The PS2 ran away with the market.  The PS2 had a way overpriced and unpopular successor and the PS3 will likely not have the same.  The PS2 had many more huge exclusives than the PS3 as the PS3 keeps losing high profile franchises.  Competition was far weaker in the PS2's generation.

If there is a console from this gen selling in 8 years, it will most likely be the Wii and not the PS3.

PS3 lasting for 10 years is nothing but wishful thinking by fans and outright lie by Sony.
Exhibit A:
Historically only leading consoles managed to sell even after the new generation consoles were released. PS3 is not a leading console and odds of it becoming the leader are extremely small. Even the most hardcore PS3 fans are predicting that PS3 will not catch up to 360 until next year and Wii is already 10 million consoles ahead of 360.

Exhibit B:
Modern technology changes very quickly, custom build PCs that cost 500-600$ are already more powerful gaming machines than PS3, and in 10 years these same PCs will be a very small fraction of that. So please dont buy into the whole "PS3 is future-proof" argument, nothing in the technology world is future proof.

Exhibit C:
Losses. So far Sony has lost 3 billion dollars in their gaming after PS3 came out. The actual losses on the PS3 are even bigger considering that this includes profits from PS2 and PSP. What is the point of keeping a console on the market that makes little profit? Original Xbox showed that unprofitable merchandise gets axed quickly.

Exhibit D:
Not even PS2 can accomplish this feat.
Ps2 sales:

2001: 16.5M

2002: 21.6M

2003: 19.2M

2004: 16M

2005: 17.8M

2006: 12.4M

2007: 9.7M

At this rate it is very unlike that the PS2 will last until 2011 and it is the best selling console in history.

Exhibit E:
Last but not least, PS2 has the most optimal conditions for selling longer than other consoles. Its successor was significantly more expensive, was unpopular in its first year and lost its backwards compatibility so if one wants to play PS2 games they MUST have a PS2. Considering the success of Wii I doubt that next generation we will see expensive consoles so PS3 will have to compete with a lower priced competitor.

The "10 Year Plan" is a utter bullshit.

There is no such thing as the 10 year plan!!!

Do you think sony "planned" for the PS1 to last 10 years? Do you think they planned for the PS2 to last 10 years?

If you believe their outright lies then you need to think for a moment about this "10 Year Plan" thing...

Basically, they got lucky, the consoles were popular for 10 years (nearly 10 years for the PS2)...So they've just said...

"Oh look, aren't we marvelous. We support our consoles for 10 years"...

Yeah, I'd bloody support my golden goose for XX years if it kept laying golden eggs...!

The sad thing is people actually believe it!

I think that whatever it is you are smoking I would be really grateful if you could share some with me.

Also, who wants a 10 year plan anyway?

Do you want to hold onto your mobile phone for 10 years!!!

This plan of sony's simply allows them to make more profit on the hardware, exploit more consumers...

10 year plan indeed! Just the name has sony all over it...cliche "elite-ist" marketing waffle with zero substance.