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Forums - Sales - Blu-Ray Growth Vs. VOD Growth

libellule on 20 July 2008
Kasz216 said:
libellule said:
Kasz216 said:

Your two articles are counting all PS3 players as used blu-ray drives. Don't you see the spin with that?


Also they are using revenue. Is it any surprise Blu-ray revenue has like quadrupled when PS3 sales have rapidly gone up?

You are spreading misinformation... not clearing it up.

The point Alpha was making too was that when you take into account the revenue differences that DVD sales were actually outpacing Blu-ray sales.

Unlike DVD vs VHS. Where VHS sales were declining.

So, plz, explain it to me again because I failed to see where it was shown that DVD sales where
rising as opposed to VHS sales (if I follow you)

I didn't get the point indeed and I just want to understand.

 

DVD vs VHS or DVD vs Blu-ray?  Cause the later is easier to show, while the former involves digging up like 10 year old news articles.

 

 

 Let's assume we are guessing that when DVD was released, VHS sales have collapsed (slowly or not).

But, NOW, in the battle DVD vs BR

I want to understand where it was shown DVD sales have risen (or were kept constant) and that BR sales have risen less than DVD sales (or decreased).

Alpha showed an overall 1.1% increase for both format COMBINED which do not help us to answer the question.



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akuma587 on 20 July 2008
FishyJoe said:

In that last article, I think they are only accounting for Lionsgate VOD and DVD numbers. I seriously doubt that the total VOD market only increased $1.3 billion in five years. I think they only mean the internet VOD market, which is still fairly small.

 

They are definitely talking about the entire DVD market and the entire VOD market (well at least as the analysts define it):

http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/53457

DVD Market Still Trouncing Game Software Sales

by Aaron Linde Jul 03, 2008 3:00pm CST tags: Hollywood, Software Sales
Contrary to previous reports that US game sales had surpassed those of DVD movies in 2007, the Entertainment Merchants Association revealed that DVDs still hold a substantial lead over game software.

According to Kotaku, the EMA said that the data from sales tracking firm NPD showing $18.85 billion in game sales includes software, hardware, and game accessories, while DVD sales—raking in $16 billion in 2007—accounts only for DVDs.

The software portion of the $18.85 billion in total game sales amounts to roughly $8.64 billion, marking a still significant lead for DVD sales over video games.

The data does not account for game rentals, used game sales or the revenue generated by online gaming subscriptions. The NPD recently announced its intentions to track online subscription sales, discovering some $1 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2008 alone.

Video-on-demand Market Poised for Explosive Growth, Says iSuppli

iSuppli projects the cable market will represent the strongest distribution channel for VoD on a revenue basis through 2010. However, Broadband VoD will emerge as a serious competitor, trailing cable in revenue, but featuring much higher growth rates. IPTV VoD will round out the mix, while Direct-to-Home Satellite leverages alternative ‘near-VoD’ strategies to remain competitive. The overall global VoD market will grow from below $2 billion in 2006, to approach $13 Billion in 2010. By 2010, there will be nearly 150 million active VoD users/subscribers worldwide.

 



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

Kasz216 on 20 July 2008

Here is the thing. Blu-ray has sold about 11 million discs since it's release
http://www.techradar.com/news/home-cinema/11-million-blu-ray-discs-sold-so-far-379469

In it's first two years DVD had sold 16.3 million discs
http://www.movieweb.com/dvd/news/20/26720.php

So right there you can see Blu-ray is quite behind DVD.

Considering that's just hard numbers, and not adjusted for the fact that the movie industry has rapidly grown since then...

When you compare actual disc sales Blu-ray is FAR behind DVD.  When you adjust for the growth in the number of movies sold per year.... Blu-ray is well... unbelivably behind where DVD was.



dib8rman on 20 July 2008

Question since they incorperate the PS3 disc sales with movie blu-ray disc sales, do they do the same for DvD on the PC,Mac,Wii,Xbox360 and PS2 as well as movies and black disks bought (which probably attribute to boot-legs)?

The easiest way would be to find the total movies sold and total Blu-Ray movies sold, and do the same with video games.

Revenue is revenue and profit is not: if someone want's to find this then I'll be more than content to read it.



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Kasz216 on 20 July 2008
libellule said:
Kasz216 said:
libellule said:
Kasz216 said:

Your two articles are counting all PS3 players as used blu-ray drives. Don't you see the spin with that?


Also they are using revenue. Is it any surprise Blu-ray revenue has like quadrupled when PS3 sales have rapidly gone up?

You are spreading misinformation... not clearing it up.

The point Alpha was making too was that when you take into account the revenue differences that DVD sales were actually outpacing Blu-ray sales.

Unlike DVD vs VHS. Where VHS sales were declining.

So, plz, explain it to me again because I failed to see where it was shown that DVD sales where
rising as opposed to VHS sales (if I follow you)

I didn't get the point indeed and I just want to understand.

 

DVD vs VHS or DVD vs Blu-ray? Cause the later is easier to show, while the former involves digging up like 10 year old news articles.

 

 

Let's assume we are guessing that when DVD was released, VHS sales have collapsed (slowly or not).

But, NOW, in the battle DVD vs BR

I want to understand where it was shown DVD sales have risen (or were kept constant) and that BR sales have risen less than DVD sales (or decreased).

Alpha showed an overall 1.1% increase for both format COMBINED which do not help us to answer the question.

DVDs are cheaper... MUCH cheaper then blu-ray.   Let me find that thread again and i'll break it down.

 



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akuma587 on 20 July 2008
alpha_dk said:


2) VOD is growing FASTER than either, and more people ACTUALLY use VoD services than use BR. Lillebule was saying that BR was more mainstream; I was simply correcting that (false) assumption. I never said BR would die; I said it was less mainstream, and would likely end up like UMD; still supported, but NOT the driving force behind the industry.

Your first article talks about declines in the DVD industry WHICH ARE NOT HAPPENING.

Your second article talks about BR adoption compared to DVD adoption, which I never brought up. I just said VoD adoption was higher than either (which is true)

Your third article doesn't account for any ad-supported or subscription-based VoD services, completely eliminating the most popular services.

Edit: I guess i should rephrase: I used the entire industry for the one I was calling 'smaller', and a subset for the one I was calling 'larger'. It helps their argument, and hurts mine, but still mine comes out on top, so...

You are right that ad-supported VOD is a relevant (and large) part of the market, but pretty much every major analyst does not calculate those figures.  I assume you are talking about mostly web-based distribution on those.  It is also only a factor for television shows, and almost never for movies.  Does the article say it isn't accounting for subscription based services?

DVD sales are not exactly dropping, I think most everyone who has looked at the figures would agree they are plateauing. They may drop in the near future and will definitely drop within the next ten years as new competitors gain foothold (i.e. VOD or Blu-Ray). And that really isn't a relevant issue anyways to this debate.

 

 



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

libellule on 20 July 2008
Kasz216 said:

Here is the thing. Blu-ray has sold about 11 million discs since it's release
http://www.techradar.com/news/home-cinema/11-million-blu-ray-discs-sold-so-far-379469

In it's first two years DVD had sold 16.3 million discs
http://www.movieweb.com/dvd/news/20/26720.php

So right there you can see Blu-ray is quite behind DVD.

Considering that's just hard numbers, and not adjusted for the fact that the movie industry has rapidly grown since then...

When you compare actual disc sales Blu-ray is FAR behind DVD.  When you adjust for the growth in the number of movies sold per year.... Blu-ray is well... unbelivably behind where DVD was.

 

 ==> BR was poised by HD DVD, period.

also, u are comparing early DVD adoption with early BR adoption, and I never stated BR adoption was higher than DVD adoption.

What I want to know is : WHAT allow people to say DVD is still growing more than BR is.



Time to Work !

akuma587 on 20 July 2008
dib8rman said:
Question since they incorperate the PS3 disc sales with movie blu-ray disc sales, do they do the same for DvD on the PC,Mac,Wii,Xbox360 and PS2 as well as movies and black disks bought (which probably attribute to boot-legs)?

The easiest way would be to find the total movies sold and total Blu-Ray movies sold, and do the same with video games.

Revenue is revenue and profit is not: if someone want's to find this then I'll be more than content to read it.

 

On the part that is discussing movie sales in terms of market size (the third article) they are not counting Blu-Ray games and they are not counting any other DVD based formats (PS2, Wii, PC, etc.).  They are related, but seperate markets.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

alpha_dk on 20 July 2008
libellule said:
Kasz216 said:
libellule said:
Kasz216 said:

Your two articles are counting all PS3 players as used blu-ray drives. Don't you see the spin with that?


Also they are using revenue. Is it any surprise Blu-ray revenue has like quadrupled when PS3 sales have rapidly gone up?

You are spreading misinformation... not clearing it up.

The point Alpha was making too was that when you take into account the revenue differences that DVD sales were actually outpacing Blu-ray sales.

Unlike DVD vs VHS. Where VHS sales were declining.

So, plz, explain it to me again because I failed to see where it was shown that DVD sales where
rising as opposed to VHS sales (if I follow you)

I didn't get the point indeed and I just want to understand.

 

DVD vs VHS or DVD vs Blu-ray?  Cause the later is easier to show, while the former involves digging up like 10 year old news articles.

 

 

 Let's assume we are guessing that when DVD was released, VHS sales have collapsed (slowly or not).

But, NOW, in the battle DVD vs BR

I want to understand where it was shown DVD sales have risen (or were kept constant) and that BR sales have risen less than DVD sales (or decreased).

Alpha showed an overall 1.1% increase for both format COMBINED which do not help us to answer the question.

Ok, the math (link for data is in other thread):

1.1% UNIT SALES growth (DVD + BR).

1.1% REVENUE growth

UNIT SALES growth = REVENUE growth.

DVD = less revenue/sale than BR.  You can see this by looking at prices of the disks

This means, that since the overall market is almost all DVD, IF BR sales accounted for most of the growth, then 1.1% unit sales growth would equal >1.1% revenue growth.  HOWEVER, any BR growth is surpassed by DVD sales growth; hence, the revenue is not growing faster than the unit sales.

When you are looking at 1.5-3x the revenue from a BR sale than a DVD sale, if it were driving the growth in unit sales then 1.1% unit sale growth would equal a 1.6-3.3% growth in revenue.  THIS IS NOT HAPPENING.  It gets even worse if you assume that DVD sales are declining and BR is picking up the slack.

If we assume DVD sales fell 1% and BR accounted for the entire 1.1% growth in addition to making up that 1% drop, you have a 2.1% of unit sales.  This *should* equal a 3-6% revenue growth, WHICH DID NOT HAPPEN.

The ONLY way this could happen is if DVD sales are outpacing BR sales significantly, even in growth.



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Kasz216 on 20 July 2008
akuma587 said:
alpha_dk said:


2) VOD is growing FASTER than either, and more people ACTUALLY use VoD services than use BR. Lillebule was saying that BR was more mainstream; I was simply correcting that (false) assumption. I never said BR would die; I said it was less mainstream, and would likely end up like UMD; still supported, but NOT the driving force behind the industry.

Your first article talks about declines in the DVD industry WHICH ARE NOT HAPPENING.

Your second article talks about BR adoption compared to DVD adoption, which I never brought up. I just said VoD adoption was higher than either (which is true)

Your third article doesn't account for any ad-supported or subscription-based VoD services, completely eliminating the most popular services.

Edit: I guess i should rephrase: I used the entire industry for the one I was calling 'smaller', and a subset for the one I was calling 'larger'. It helps their argument, and hurts mine, but still mine comes out on top, so...

You are right that ad-supported VOD is a relevant (and large) part of the market, but pretty much every major analyst does not calculate those figures. I assume you are talking about mostly web-based distribution on those. It is also only a factor for television shows, and almost never for movies. Does the article say it isn't accounting for subscription based services?

DVD sales are not exactly dropping, I think most everyone who has looked at the figures would agree they are plateauing. They may drop in the near future and will definitely drop within the next ten years as new competitors gain foothold (i.e. VOD or Blu-Ray). And that really isn't a relevant issue anyways to this debate.

 

 

 

Articles do not say they exclude stuff. They just don't because they don't have to say that... cause they can spin it.

Looking at the above hard numbers I posted do you finally agree that Bluray is actually way behind DVD in terms of market growth?

Even when not counting VOD services.  When you do count them...