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Forums - Sales - The Official June NPD Thread (for the 5 weeks ending 7/5, data in ~6 hours)

shanbcn on 18 July 2008

Where is top 20 software list from NPD?



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gebx on 18 July 2008

Ah.. MS better rethink their price cut strategy... $349 60gig is not going to help MS double their sales.



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Kenology on 18 July 2008

Any numbers from outside the software top 10 yet? Usually a few pop up by now.



Kenology on 18 July 2008

And where's the Microsoft spin already!?



WiiStation360 on 18 July 2008
Kenology said:
And where's the Microsoft spin already!?

 

MS is normally quick with the spin.   I would not be suprised if they skip the NPD reaction PR this month.



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Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008
CrazzyMan said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Griffin said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Griffin said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Griffin said:
superchunk said:
Griffin said:
FishyJoe said:

According to Bloomberg, over 10.9 million Wiis LTD in US. If you add in Canada and the rest of the Americas, VGC almost sounds like it's tracking on the low side comparatively. I've underlined comparatively because I'm not saying VGC is under tracking, only that it may be tracking differently on the low side when you compare.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aK64sYWSB1Rw&refer=asia

 

How do you get that, according to this site we have the wii at 12.55mil for the last week in june, with the US at 10.9 that puts 1.6 for Canada, and thats well above 10%.  If anything it appears we are over tracking.

ummm, your forgeting about all those little countries below the US.

10.9 + 1.1 = 12m

Then about 500k for the rest of NA. Sure, that's reasonable.

 

You are out of your mind if you think there are 500k sales of the wii for central and south America, and does Nintendo even ship wii's to South America, i think the suppliers buy them from the US and ship them down south.

 

You are aware that south America isn't a part of North America, right?

As for the numbers, look at this.

NA population: 523M

US population: 304M

Canada population: 33M

Rest population: 186M

Are you telling me that the rest 186M people, couldn't have bought 500.000 Wiis, when a less than 1/5 population bought more than twice as much?

 

You do know how little people make on average in South America, Brazil, 2006 average is $4600, the US is $42,000+.  Mexico is about $7500, the rest of SA is even lower.

 
I think you're joking, but I'm not sure. North America is what VGC has America as. I used North America. Brasil alone has a population of 188M (I think), so how the heck could I have included SA? If I'm wrong, and VGC tracks all of America, what I wrote is still valid, as I used NA only. Once again, South America is a continent, and not a part of North America.

 

South America(SA)/Central Amerca is poor, they have not bought 500k wii's.  The numbers i provided are correct for the average income.  I know what VGC tracks.  I'm saying we have over tracked if we go by NPD numbers.

 

And I'm saying it's not. I also believe you do not know what VGC tracks. I myself don't really know, but everyone says NA, and I assume the majority is correct here.

The numbers you provided for average income mean next to nothing. Mexico is 7500 dollars. But there is a huge class difference there. The top 15% stand for 60% of the total income. This means that those 16.5M in Mexico (not including the 70M not in Canada, USA and Mexico) have an average income of 30.000 USD a year. Considering the far lower prices there, this equals to about the same as a US citizen. I believe this is higher than Canada, but I'm not certain. The Brazil average means nothing, as it is in Others, not NA.

So solely by population, those 15% should equal out more than half of Canada, making 500K a safe bet. And this isn't even including the 70M out of the big 3 in NA.

 EDIT: Sorry, that's supposed to be 30-40M out of the big 3. Sorry!

 

I just really don`t know, so i just want some ANSWERS. =)

LTD NPD Canada through Jan/08:
360 - 736,400
WII - 689,500
PS3 - 342,400

LTD NPD Canada through Mar/08:
WII - 813,000

Usa NPD Feb:
Xbox 360 255K
PLAYSTATION 3 281K
Wii 432K units

Usa NPD March:
Xbox 360 262K
PLAYSTATION 3 257K
Wii 721K

The Wii in Canada is at 813,000 LTD as of March or +124,000 in Feb+March = 10,5%(of USA Feb+March sales).

Then in 2 month(Feb+March) in Canada by the end of March:
x360 = +54k = 790k
ps3 = +58k = 400k
wii = 813k

Usa NPD March LTD:

360: 9.868
Wii: 8.797
PS3: 4.054

Total NA by March 30.
x360 - NPD 10,660 - VG 11,110 - 450k
Wii - NPD 9,610 - VG 10,195 - 600k
ps3 - NPD 4,453 - VG 4,448 - -5k

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=America&cons2=PS3®2=America&cons3=X360®3=America&start=39453&end=39537&weekly=1

REASON:

1) why ps3 is below NPD numbers? With having in mind, that VG NA numbers get adjusted, after NPD numbers come.

2) why Wii and x360 so much above NPD numbers. PS3 is NOT selling there, where x360 and Wii sells?

I don't get your way of setting it up, but a nice job anyway. Still, I believe you're wrong.

Lifetime to date NPD (USA only) sales.

Wii: 10.9M

X360: 10.5M

Ps3: 4.9M

Lifetime to date NPD (USA only) sales. 10% seems really fair here, looking at the last LTD numbers I found, which are for January. Then it is fairly precisely 10% for each. Not totally, so these numbers slightly favour the Ps3, and dis-favour the Wii. I use 10%

Wii: 1.1M

X360: 1.1M

Ps3: 0.5M

So the total numbers go up to

Wii: 12M

X360: 11.6M

Ps3: 5.4M

 

Then there is a fairly giant base in Mexico. In a previous post, I wrote what I think is the possible base of buying in Mexico. That is a 16.5M base, that earns roughly the same as in USA, because of lower prices, etc. Read it in one of the quotes if you have questions.

This means that I expect an addition of roughly 5% here. But as we have no numbers, adding numbers is meaningless. Still, I believe the cheapest console, which also demands the cheapest TV, would sell more. a 700-900K prediction for Wii makes sense. I believe the HD consoles will lag VERY far behind here. I think Mexico has a > 2% of HD TVs, so buying them makes less sense.

Thus a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be

12.7-13M for Wii

11.9 - 12.2M for X360

5.5M - 5.7M Ps3

 

Now, the actual VGC numbers, excluding the 2 last weeks of hardware, as those are not included in NPD:

Wii: 12.5M

X360: 11.8M

Ps3: 5.3M

 

Looking at this, everything looks fairly fair.

 

Of course, my numbers are far, far from certain, but I believe they are much better than yours. You exclude 150M + of North America's population.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

CrazzyMan on 18 July 2008

Thus a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be

12.7-13M for Wii

11.9 - 12.2M for X360

5.5M - 5.7M Ps3


Now, the actual VGC numbers, excluding the last week of hardware, as it is not included in NPD:

Wii: 12.7M

X360: 11.9M

Ps3: 5.3M
THAT`s the POINT, PS3 behind by 200k, while x360 and Wii match the lowest "a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be".

And i ask, WHY?



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

shanbcn on 18 July 2008
CrazzyMan said:
Thus a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be

12.7-13M for Wii

11.9 - 12.2M for X360

5.5M - 5.7M Ps3


Now, the actual VGC numbers, excluding the last week of hardware, as it is not included in NPD:

Wii: 12.7M

X360: 11.9M

Ps3: 5.3M
THAT`s the POINT, PS3 behind by 200k, while x360 and Wii match the lowest "a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be".

And i ask, WHY?

 

CrazzyMAn,

Wait for Sony LTD numbers which will come soon, after looking at Xbox LTD 20.3 million figure i think VG overtracked 360 sales by 500k WW at least. Its not like 360 is selling like Wii to have shipped and sold figures close. Even Wii have bigger diffrence so why not for least selling console?



Oyvoyvoyv on 18 July 2008
CrazzyMan said:
Thus a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be

12.7-13M for Wii

11.9 - 12.2M for X360

5.5M - 5.7M Ps3


Now, the actual VGC numbers, excluding the last week of hardware, as it is not included in NPD:

Wii: 12.7M

X360: 11.9M

Ps3: 5.3M
THAT`s the POINT, PS3 behind by 200k, while x360 and Wii match the lowest "a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be".

And i ask, WHY?

 

 OK That does it.

I thought you tried to be serious, but had a different view than me, but obviously, you're far different.

You EDITED the numbers I put up for VGC totals, without putting a reason for editing them. Go back to my post, and see that they're different.

I put 12.5M Wii, he changed it in the quote to 12.7M

I put 11.6M X360, he changed it to 11.9M

I put 5.4M Ps3, he changed it to 5.3M

 

I just lost the last bit of respect I had for you.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Nutboy on 18 July 2008
CrazzyMan said:
Thus a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be

12.7-13M for Wii

11.9 - 12.2M for X360

5.5M - 5.7M Ps3


Now, the actual VGC numbers, excluding the last week of hardware, as it is not included in NPD:

Wii: 12.7M

X360: 11.9M

Ps3: 5.3M
THAT`s the POINT, PS3 behind by 200k, while x360 and Wii match the lowest "a totally fair prediction for NA totals would be".

And i ask, WHY?

 

 Double post