Its funny how nintendo fans don't play that many games but are always happy for sales. What d'you do with wii speak? Pick up girl gamers that have joined the wii club?

Thank you, I made it myself (alternative candidates: snobbore, snobchore). As to whether not wanting to associate with snobs makes me a de facto snob myself, I'll have to admit that I never had much patience for philosophy, and leave the matter without further comment.

I do believe that the snobcore (permit me this one favor) base is getting smaller with time. Japan provides the logical case sample. There, "hardcore" games aren't generally doing as well as they used to, which is why Nintendo changed its business strategy, and why it's seeing record-breaking success in doing so while the HD consoles remain in a quagmire. Had it been holding steady, we would be seeing higher sales of the "hardcore" consoles (which usually excludes the Wii), much higher sales of their software (which for most titles is anemic at best), and Nintendo being less relevant. None of that is the case.

Now, you may argue that Japan is its own unique case, and that the same thing isn't happening out here in the West. To which I have two responses. First, demographics argue that the same decline is inevitable here: "hardcore" gamers are almost exclusively young males, and thanks to a low birthrate the West is seeing fewer and fewer of those as times go on. Unless you magically expect females and older men to suddenly become "hardcore" gamers (something which the traditional cycle has not led to despite having thirty years to do so) then it becomes obvious that that base will simply not be as large as it currently is.

Second (and this I feel is more important and immediate), even if the base was to remain stable, their contributions are not enough to keep the industry afloat at its current pace. Even as we see record revenues, we see an increase in the number of studios either being forced to merge, or which are going under. The reason for this is simple: revenue may be up, but it's outsripped by the skyrocketing costs of catering to the "hardcore" demographic. When even a titan like EA is hurting (it posted a loss last year, despite achieving almost 25% higher revenue than it forecasted) you know that something is seriously wrong with the picture. Even the few companies that are both profitable and (somewhat) focused on the "hardcore" don't seem to be reaping their money from that source: a third of Ubisoft's revenue comes from the DS, far more than from the PS3 and roughly equal to that of the 360, and we know that Ubisoft's DS games cost as little as 1/30th of an HD game (not counting the cost of porting). Activision posted a profit, but much of it also came from the DS and Wii, and even more came from Guitar Hero (is that now "hardcore"? It's an honest question, since that club seems to expand whenever it's convenient for the snobcore to have it do so. GTA, anyone?).

So it seems to me that that group is increasingly shrinking, and that the process will only accelerate with time.

I am pretty sure the core market can be profitable,it has always been.
No need for Wii and its ultra-casual approach to save the market.

ok, noname, so where does this situation lead us?...That inevitably the "hardcore" gamers will have to find something else?

Over half of the Wii's million sellers are hardcore games, this on a supposedly casual system.

Did all the people whining about Nintendo's press conference learn nothing after last year's E3? Remember all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over Wii Fit?

Yup, exactly. It seems like a crazy concept, but maybe Ninty are just trying to destroy "hardcore" gamers/games in general? Be in interesting war (casuals + Ninty vrs Sony/MS + hardcore) - MS defect to casual at the last moment, and stab Sony in the back?

As Kenology said - its not like the hardcore games don't exist - they do. But Nintendo INTENTIONALLY decided to not show ANY of them. It was a very calculated and intended statement - I'm just trying to work out the real reason behind this.

(i.e. if they would have finished the conference with a 10-30sec montage of footage from MadWorld, Fatal Frame, .. (etc).. it would have changed everything, cost nothing - and appeased the hardcore to some degree - but they DIDN'T on PURPOSE).

...

Maybe its a deprevation strategy? Deprive the hardcore of their games enough, and when they DO get shown - they go even more insane/rabid than normal?

Or maybe the strategy is all about keeping hardcore *very* quiet, and putting out a "casual only" impression to enforce to the market that it is "casual or broke"?

No, not in my opinion. I think I should take this chance to clarify something: I have many of the same tastes in games as the snobcore (with some notable differences); I simply despise them because they despise people who don't share their tastes (we've seen some examples in this very thread). Why do you think the word "casual" has become an insult to someone's intelligence? I mention this to warn you that what follows may be partly influenced by wishful thinking, as I don't want to see "hardcore" gaming completely disappear.

It seems to me that the solution is to accept that the "more more more" philosophy that's driving that type of gaming has to end. Now. I like my eye candy as much as the next guy, but it's driving companies either out of business or into completely cautious game development, and neither of those things benefits me or any other gamer in the long run. Instead, we'll simply have to accept that games are not going to be as gorgeous as they currently are on the HD front, not for a long while anyhow. This may well drive away some people, of course, but it's inevitable anyway.

Instead, I'm guessing that some few companies will try to ride out the current generation with HD games, hoping to develop the game that wins the lottery (a few, like Call of Duty 4, do. They're just the exception rather than the rule). More and more developers will start shifting to the Wii, or to handhelds, and those who don't will almost always have to publish their game on both the 360 and the PS3.  That's not much of a guess, I'll admit, since it's precisely what's been happening the past few months (have you noticed the death of third-party exclusives on the HD systems, or the uptick in support for the Wii?).

More importantly, I believe that the graphical output in the next generation will have only a comparatively miniscule increase, and I'm praying that efficiency will have increased enough that such development becomes viable. Alternatively, middle-ware companies will become increasingly important (even Squeenix, the last big company that insisted on making individual engines for each of its games, has relented because of development costs), while we'll see more mergers and acquisitions. For the sake of our hobby, I hope it's option one rather than option two.

This debate is ridiculous. Isn't one of the reasons Nintendo is so different because of japanese developers, japanese gamers and the need to appeal to greater audiences. Hardcore audiences vary just as much as Casual audiences do so to box people in is just stupid. Hasn't Nintendo proved this, didn't the PS2 do the same? Full time gamers will turn part timers and part time gamers will turn fulltime, thats what will happen and thats it. I think this debate is one of fandom, addiction and social significane of gaming to people.