There are a large number of posts here, like HappySqurriel's post, which seem to address the topic as if I were stating "ZOMG PS3 sales will increase tenfold!" and then I apparently go on to say "Your Wii sUkZ0rz! , throw it away, and get a real console!!"  I said nothing of the sort.  I am posing questions for discussion.  I have a Wii, you know -- and I like it too.  Go figure.

I am merely postulating that the 17% of american households which will be affected by this relatively drastic change may not choose to partake in waiting for $40 off coupons -- they may merely go out and buy themselves a new TV.  Walmart, etc. are certainly posing this option as a solution they would like the consumer to partake in (of course they are) -- I would wager that a significant portion, perhaps even a majority of the 17% households affected will not partake in the coupon offer (its not exactly common street knowledge -- heck, come 2/17/09 a lot of these people will probably be surprised by the event... and upset, despite the long-standing warnings), and a decent % of those households may very well be interested in purchasing a new HDTV, rather than merely replacing their old set with a new non-HD set.  These people are apparently thrifty (or just plain poor), and aren't going to throw money away on an intermediate item which they may wish to replace in a short period of time (although some will, of course).

I'm stating that not all these households are poor, and frankly, HDTVs aren't nearly as expensive as many seem to believe.  You can pickup a 19" LCD 720p television for around $350 (or less), unless you're a brand-name snob.  The 480p TVs just aren't that much cheaper, and in 6 months time, the disparity will be even less.  19 million American households is a lot to send shopping for a replacement television -- and while not all will take this option, you have to consider that a reasonable number may very well jump on this as an opportunity to update their living room.  The sheer scale of the transition may be enough to move many many HD consoles... or maybe not.  I would, personally, call a few hundred thousand units a pretty hefty number in the console market -- and I cannot discount that as a remote possibility (although I think 100K units, to borderline buyers who bought in due to this change, may be a reasonable guess... and that's a tiny percentage of those 19 million).

Assuming all analog TV owners, who do not have cable/satellite (17% of all US households, as stated previously) all must be "poor" or "uninterested in video games" is a pretty monumental assumption (especially since low-income families have never been shown to play fewer videogames, according to a pretty large number of studies by many groups, including NPD).  I agree that there may be some measure of reasoning behind that broad generalization, but its hardly enough to discount the colossal number of households that may very well be looking to upgrade, rather than mailing in for a couple coupons that they may, or may not, even know are available.

It really is fascinating to see all the posts willing to jump to that conclusion, however, as well as attempt to paint this thread as some sort of pro-PS3, anti-Wii thing.

(edit: sorry to pick on you specifically, HappySqurriel... no offense intended)

There are a large number of posts here, like HappySqurriel's post, which seem to address the topic as if I were stating "ZOMG PS3 sales will increase tenfold!" and then I apparently go on to say "Your Wii sUkZ0rz! , throw it away, and get a real console!!" I said nothing of the sort. I am posing questions for discussion. I have a Wii, you know -- and I like it too. Go figure.

I am merely postulating that the 17% of american households which will be affected by this relatively drastic change may not choose to partake in waiting for $40 off coupons -- they may merely go out and buy themselves a new TV. Walmart, etc. are certainly posing this option as a solution they would like the consumer to partake in (of course they are) -- I would wager that a significant portion, perhaps even a majority of the 17% households affected will not partake in the coupon offer (its not exactly common street knowledge -- heck, come 2/17/09 a lot of these people will probably be surprised by the event... and upset, despite the long-standing warnings), and a decent % of those households may very well be interested in purchasing a new HDTV, rather than merely replacing their old set with a new non-HD set. These people are apparently thrifty (or just plain poor), and aren't going to throw money away on an intermediate item which they may wish to replace in a short period of time (although some will, of course).

I'm stating that not all these households are poor, and frankly, HDTVs aren't nearly as expensive as many seem to believe. You can pickup a 19" LCD 720p television for around $350 (or less), unless you're a brand-name snob. The 480p TVs just aren't that much cheaper, and in 6 months time, the disparity will be even less. 19 million American households is a lot to send shopping for a replacement television -- and while not all will take this option, you have to consider that a reasonable number may very well jump on this as an opportunity to update their living room. The sheer scale of the transition may be enough to move many many HD consoles... or maybe not. I would, personally, call a few hundred thousand units a pretty hefty number in the console market -- and I cannot discount that as a remote possibility (although I think 100K units, to borderline buyers who bought in due to this change, may be a reasonable guess... and that's a tiny percentage of those 19 million).

Assuming all analog TV owners, who do not have cable/satellite (17% of all US households, as stated previously) all must be "poor" or "uninterested in video games" is a pretty monumental assumption (especially since low-income families have never been shown to play fewer videogames, according to a pretty large number of studies by many groups, including NPD). I agree that there may be some measure of reasoning behind that broad generalization, but its hardly enough to discount the colossal number of households that may very well be looking to upgrade, rather than mailing in for a couple coupons that they may, or may not, even know are available.

It really is fascinating to see all the posts willing to jump to that conclusion, however, as well as attempt to paint this thread as some sort of pro-PS3, anti-Wii thing.

(edit: sorry to pick on you specifically, HappySqurriel... no offense intended)