MikeB said: BengaBenga said: MikeB said: NJ5 said: @MikeB: Don't pretend the headstart in the launch is the whole issue, we all know how important Microsoft's moneyhats are.   Yes, Microsoft has and will invest into trying to keep an edge over the PS3 through exclusive deals and 3rd party projects. But as the PS3 install base increases they will need to lay down exceedingly larger summs for multi-platform developers to be interested in exclusive deals. It will become harder and harder for Microsoft to pull off.   The mere fact that franchises like GTA, DMC and RE are also on 360 is already a major benefit for Microsoft, since it prevents the PS3 from being the new PS2. And seeing the sales of multimplatform games on 360 it's very unlikely that these games will ever be PlayStation exclusive anymore.  The PS3 is the PS2 sucessor, however it's not designed to do PS2 or Wii-like sales right out of the gate. That would be far too expensive for Sony. we discussed thi earlier, it's not true. Sony wouldn't spend over 3 billion if they didn't think it would be a massive success. I didn't notice huge bumps in 360 hardware when GTA4 and DMC4 were released and I don't expect this from the new Resident Evil neither if released simultaneously with the PS3 version. I think the situation will become much clearer when a slimline PS3 is launched (which will be designed to do PS2 like sales) and a few months after all major XBox games have received 360 sequels (Fable and Star Wars). I think 2009 will be an even more crucial year with regard to the "console wars". The PS3 outsold the 360 in 2007, for 2008 the gap will likely be much bigger, for 2009 I expect the gap to be enormous.

No, but there wasn't a big bump for PS3 either. With GTA as PS3 exclusive that bump would have been pretty significant for PS3, plus would have prevented a lot of 360 sales, therefore increasing the differences from two sides. It was never Microsofts main plan to win the console war, actually one of their most important ideas behind Xbox was to keep Sony from domination. Even if PS3 will beat 360 (what will probably happen) Microsoft is at this moment more successful than Sony in the console business. MS has a profitable entertainment division, Sony has lots of problems with SCE.

Most importantly for Microsoft: it's next console can benefit a lot from the gains it has made with 360 in regard to 3rd party games. Most publishers are very happy to heve their game on Microsofts platform, which will be important in their next generation console.

 

@ BengaBenga

That's your conclusion. I think there's a fine balance between how much they are willing to invest, how much they want to outsell the 360 and how much they expect from returns such as from software sales and other gaming division projects.

From a design and financial perspective (very high spec) and pricing (relative low consumer pricing) IMO it was obvious Sony could not afford to have PS2 like sales early on.

However the hardware will be cost reduced and the current install base can be expected to buy on average about 4.5-5 full price games a year per user (next to extras including Blu-Ray movies, controllers, Bravias, etc) . So it will become more and more interesting for Sony to sell at PS2 like levels.



A lot can happen during this generation of consoles. Multi-platform games developers will of course stay multi-platform unless there's clear market dominance from one console they can expect to make the bulk of their profits on.

If 360 sales stall like I expect them to next year (like already the case for Europe and Japan), piracy becomes a bigger factor on the 360 and multi-platform console owners prefer a PS3 version due to trophies, Home, 360 RRoD / disc scratch issues, better graphics/audio, additional content on Blu-Ray disc, etc, etc. This all could well effect the long term outlook for both platforms.

@MikeB: The PS3 didn't outsell the 360 in 2007, you're right that the PS3 will most likely win 2008 though.

Regarding your last post, it's quite misleading to say that the 360 is stalled in Europe. Last I checked, the price cut did give it a sustained boost, it is selling well although not at PS3's level.

@ NJ5

Despite a few months less sales in Europe or more for some parts of the world it did so globally.

- Microsoft sold 4.3 million 360s worldwide in the last quarter of 2007, making it 7.3 million in total for the year.
- Sony sold 4.9 million PS3 worldwide in the last quarter of 2007, totalling 8.83 million for the year.

This is the most objective measure, the PS3 outsold the 360 to retail. Of course there would be PS3 units on the shelf compared to nothing before for Europe and other countries (minus the countries where the platform launched in 2006). But more than 1.5 million units difference is enough to come to conclusions.

You can't use the claim that the only reason this would be the case because the PS3 was much more in stock at the end of 2007, as for the first quarter of 2008 the PS3 also sold 1 million more units to retail than the 360 did during this usually slow period. If the 360 was low in stock and the PS3 was high in stock at retailers, more 360s would have been sold in Q1 2008 than PS3s.



269 Euro for a 20 GB 360 Premium (199 Euro for an Arcade model) vs 399 Euro for a 40 GB PS3, still the PS3 outsells the 360 in Europe. The recent price cut had a very minor effect on European sales. Of course without it, the 360 would have sold even worse.

IMO, so much spin and intellectual dishonesty should be a bannable offense.

I'm not even going to touch your last post, it's the kind of PR-like speech which makes want to throw up. I'll remind myself never to argue with you again.

I think it's quite possible.

@ NJ5

Fine with me. The supplied data above regarding sales and pricing is accurate and indisputable.

3 million PS3's to be sold in Others alone in December 2008 is impossible. 2 million would be more than likely a maximum in Others in December 2008. Last December 2007 1.2 million PS3's sold in Others region. Year on year sales of PS3's will be around 50% on top of last years sales.

For 3 million PS3's in December to be reached the sales will have to be 150% on top of last year's sales. Additional 1.8 million PS3's sold on last year's sales in Others for December.

PS3 will outsell the X360 by the end of the generation by over a 20 million consoles when the numbers are in. But this generation is a lot closer between MS and Sony in comparison to last generation. PS2 had a market share of 75%. PS3 market share would be around 30%. So a fall in market share of 45%. Competition in the market is good with Nintendo leading and MS being a lot competitive than last generation.

BengaBenga said: BB? As in BengaBenga? Watch out there buddy, lol And I don't see a need to involve starcraft in this. I see your 7 million and raise it to 9 million.

 

In December alone? OK sure.

In the 9 weeks across November and December 9 million is possible if Nintendo retrofits supply to do so (I'm saying 8-9 million) but in December alone it's a no.

omgwtfbbq said:

oh he has many more predictions. I've lost count of the number of times leo's "Wii sales will drop" predictions failed to come through. not to mention my personal favourite "Crisis Core will sell 10 million copies"

I meant he only has one prediction to his name that will probably come true.

Obie - smoking crack confirmed. :D