The PS3 is performing ok in Japan. It sells about 15,000 units on average every week in Japan.

However if the below were to all happen how much do you think it would sell??

1) Slim Redesign

2) A wide range of colours

3) A price cut

4)Final Fantasy 13

Note*: If you wish you can also predict other areas such as Europe and America.

Final fantasy XIII would have the biggest impact on japan, obviously. As soon as it's released, the average should rise to 20k.

Two comments before I give my opinion about your questions:

1- 15k is the current level, which might still be affected by MGS4. We need to wait a few more weeks to see if it stabilizes there, or down to ~10k as before.

2- I don't think 15k a week qualifies as OK. It means less than a million a year, the PS3 is tracking along with the Gamecube (but above the Dreamcast).

Having said that, here are my comments on your items:

1- A slim redesign would provide a temporary boost for sure, since changes in hardware always make some people rebuy their consoles and sell/give away their used ones. A permanent boost is uncertain, but possible. I have no idea how big it could be though. It depends on when it happens and whether the PS3 is selling better by then or not.

2- See 1.

3- There were plenty of price cuts already, which didn't improve PS3 sales in the long run. Price doesn't seem to be the issue.

4- This is the wild card, and IMO the only thing which could save the PS3 in Japan and make it an accepted console there. If it boosts hardware to 50k for a while, it will be a fantastic result, although by that point the Wii will already be entrenched as the de facto Japanese console. In this case, it will be a somewhat similar situation to DS/PSP, in which the PSP is winning in hardware weekly sales now, but software support is much stronger for the DS.

I don't think any of those will have any lasting effect. All of those (except maybe colors) can give a increase sales pretty good for a few weeks but they will come back down. The only thing that will permanently increase sales is a sustainable stream of japanese oriented games. That is far more important than any price drop, final fantasy or slim design that the ps3 could ever get.

Look at PSP in Japan, its took a while to get really started. @NJ5 PS3 price cut Will have a permanent effect if price is right just like PS2. Alot of Japanese gamers who got PS2 will want PS3 because their favorite franchises on the PS2 will now be on PS3. Give it Time in Japan and we will see it take off. Maybe when PS3 Reaches PS2 Launch price ;)

With the falling economy in Japan (or rather the fear of, Japanese analysts expect much worse than it goes all the time), the price is the most important.

So what I think they need, is a very long lasting game (ala MKWii, SSBB or Wii Fit), that's Japan centered. Final Fantasy fills this up fairly well, and if Versus turns out well, they have what they want.

The market in Japan is all about momentum. At the current moment, Ps3 hasn't been able to catch the momentum for 2 weeks in a row. What they need is to keep the momentum going for at least a month. That would improve them a lot for the long run. The problem - Nintendo won't let them.

30 000 weekly consoles per week sold in Japan.
Providing all those factors are met.

PSP proves that if SONY does the following 2 things PS3 can sell well in Japan.

1) Re-design the console ASAP - make it lighter, thinner, consume less power.
2) GAMES - SONY needs a games for PS3 -- look at what FFVII:CC and Monster hunter did to PSP sales. (and what MGS4 temporarily did to PS3 sales)

If SONY gets this done I'm guessing it would sell 30k-40k per week in Japan which would give it a good boost. Lets also hope the PS3 sales sit at around 15k+ for a while due to MGS4

I'd say that each is enough to keep PS3 in the 15k range, FF13 may push few weeks into 30k. Pricecut and new color earlier was enough to get us into the current situation (with new games, naturally).

@Blazinghead: Could you name these franchises, you're talking about? Since if we are to believe the laws of economics, sales tell the opposite. If you are talking about 1st party franchises, history tells that they don't really mean a shit in the big picture, if it's 1st party vs. 3rd party support.