98.5%. 50% before H3, 48.5% after.

If MS doesn't decide to drop the price, say bye bye to MS ever having a chance to do decent (50m+ systems) this generation.

MS WILL not say they're dropping the price until they do. If you said "we are dropping the price by $100 in 3 months", then NO ONE will buy the system for the next 3 months - look at what the Elite did. Sales went to ~40k in the US, then jumped once the Elite came out. Everyone knew the elite was coming out, so they saved for it. Same thing for the price drop.

I think it really depends on how Halo 3 does and how the PS3 does.

1. If Halo 3 doesn't at least double weekly sale of the 360 for a few weeks then they will have a price cut befor the end of the year.

2. If the PS3 starts to outsell the 360 world wide by a wide margin this year we will see a price cut this year.

I give the chances of a price cut at 50/50 for this year. I think Microsoft would rather count profits (ie not drop the price) then try to compete with the Wii for market share. They are only worried about competeing for market share with Sony.

Word! And a price reduction would boost sales in conjunction with all the big titles that are being released this fall (Bioshock, Halo 3, GTA 4, Mass Effect, Assassins Creed and MOH: Airborne etc). I predict a price cut in august/september and of course it's going to be $100.

Well, considering that the PS3 is getting a price cut before Christmas, I'd like to change my probability to 95% too :P

And it seems that my first prediction may fail :( It seems that sony is willing to risk more than I anticipated.

 I like this scenario.  A $100 price drop in the next 6-weeks before the big games start dropping.  Announce it at the July E3 show - big celebration because the 10,000,000 console was sold the previous month.  And then just pour on the titles to be released starting right after the show:  Blue Dragon; Mass Effect; the Darkness;  Madden; Halo 3; Assassin's Creed; Half Life Orange; GTA IV; Eternal Sonata.  Advertise heavily the 10 million consoles, the huge library, the new titles, and the price drop.  The general public will eat it up.

High. Expecially if the PS3 has one. 360 is also due for a cut. It's been slowing down a bit.

90-97% that it'll probably get a price cut and a special H3 bundle...

95% that it'll get a price cut...

I'd say they wont until sony drops their price. And seeing how the head of sony just pretty much gave away they'll cut the price before christmas, ill say

85 % chance. I think once games start coming out for ps3 and the price cut they will have to drop price to sell at the same rate that ps3s will be.

Maybe both Sony and Microsoft will announce price cuts at E3.

Just before the holidays makes sense...a month or two after halo 3 comes out, they would want to cash in as much as possible on that...