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I think it really depends on how Halo 3 does and how the PS3 does.

1. If Halo 3 doesn't at least double weekly sale of the 360 for a few weeks then they will have a price cut befor the end of the year.

2. If the PS3 starts to outsell the 360 world wide by a wide margin this year we will see a price cut this year.

I give the chances of a price cut at 50/50 for this year. I think Microsoft would rather count profits (ie not drop the price) then try to compete with the Wii for market share. They are only worried about competeing for market share with Sony.