I think I saw that thread, but I don't remember what the assumptions were there. If you're right, the error in my method would not amount to more than 0.6 million units, as that's the non-cancelled-out difference that I mention in the second paragraph of the post you just quoted (i.e. the monthly production boost).

Regarding your alternative method of working backwards from Nintendo's estimate for the fiscal year, it wouldn't surprise me if that has the same or bigger error, as they are usually conservative in their shipment forecasts.

In any case, this debate we're having is almost academic. We've had atleast three different calculation methods presented in this thread which result in the same ~45m figure; mine, yours and Sqrl's. It seems that that's the benchmark for Wii's sales at the end of 2008 (whether shipped or sold probably doesn't make a big difference so let's ignore that here).

Nintendo could still surprise us with an extra boost in production for the holiday season, but other than that 45 million seems like a good estimate.

I'll probably piss some folks off by saying this but I think the Wii is the most likely to see an increase in sales over the next few months. I'm pretty confident production is still on the rise even if they aren't being vocal about it (but when are they vocal about anything?).

Even so an extra 300k units per month would only be another ~2 million units by year end so we aren't going to see any major shifts.

Let me just say this, I'll be very surprised if the final number isn't between 43M and 46M. Because for it to be outside that range something major will have to happen.

An increase in sales over the next few months is almost certain, since a production increase was already announced (unless we assume that increase will only go towards holidays supply, which I don't think is the case). Did you mean "even a bigger increase than the production increase would lead us to expect"?

Well by most calculations they either are already at 2.3m or will be there by the end of August. Now, the last 3 months of Wii sales have averaged 1.57m units, which is less than even the previously assumed production rate of 1.8M, and the estimated current production rate of 2.1M. Since I'm not willing to buy that they are lying about the production rates I can only assume they are stockpiling.

With that said, my year end sales estimate from earlier was for "sold to consumer" and it did include a gradual build-up as I do expect sales to increase as they complete their production rate increases. The thing is I don't think all of the increase is going towards shipments, but stockpiling as well. As my estimate points out I think they are going to sell over 10 million units during this holiday, so in a period that they would normally only have 4.6M units produced they are going to need a LOT of stockpiling help if they have any hope to keep up with it.

If they aren't stockpiling units right now then I don't know wth is going on, but it certainly makes plenty of sense to stockpile imo.

I think I saw that thread, but I don't remember what the assumptions were there. If you're right, the error in my method would not amount to more than 0.6 million units, as that's the non-cancelled-out difference that I mention in the second paragraph of the post you just quoted (i.e. the monthly production boost).

Regarding your alternative method of working backwards from Nintendo's estimate for the fiscal year, it wouldn't surprise me if that has the same or bigger error, as they are usually conservative in their shipment forecasts.

In any case, this debate we're having is almost academic. We've had atleast three different calculation methods presented in this thread which result in the same ~45m figure; mine, yours and Sqrl's. It seems that that's the benchmark for Wii's sales at the end of 2008 (whether shipped or sold probably doesn't make a big difference so let's ignore that here).

Nintendo could still surprise us with an extra boost in production for the holiday season, but other than that 45 million seems like a good estimate.

I don't think the wii will beat the 40 million by end of 2008, but I think it will be a close race. With very high christmas sales it is maybe possible...! What do you think?

Sorry for my bad English...