Prediction Wii 40 million end of 2008

[NJ5]

Sqrl said:

 

Well by most calculations they either are already at 2.3m or will be there by the end of August. Now, the last 3 months of Wii sales have averaged 1.57m units, which is less than even the previously assumed production rate of 1.8M, and the estimated current production rate of 2.1M. Since I'm not willing to buy that they are lying about the production rates I can only assume they are stockpiling.

With that said, my year end sales estimate from earlier was for "sold to consumer" and it did include a gradual build-up as I do expect sales to increase as they complete their production rate increases. The thing is I don't think all of the increase is going towards shipments, but stockpiling as well. As my estimate points out I think they are going to sell over 10 million units during this holiday, so in a period that they would normally only have 4.6M units produced they are going to need a LOT of stockpiling help if they have any hope to keep up with it.

If they aren't stockpiling units right now then I don't know wth is going on, but it certainly makes plenty of sense to stockpile imo.

 

They are stockpiling for sure, after last year's patterns and 2008 sales so far there's no question in my mind about that...

Like you, I think the new production increase to 2.4 million/month will result in both things - faster stockpiling for the holidays and more sales outside the holidays.

I think a gradual increase in sales will be seen in September at the latest, end of July at the earliest.