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Forums - Sales - Which console will have the most million sellers?

Final-Fan on 22 December 2008
Ail said:
Erik Aston said:
People may be surprised with how fast Wii can catch up, especially since the perception is right now that 360 is stretching its lead.

Folks who have watched the database carefully may have noticed 2 things recently. First of all, a big database update for DS put a whole slew of games across critical marks, just a few months ago... And second, in last week's data, Wii added 11 500K sellers. So there are ways for a gap of 24 titles to disappear very quickly.

For that first point... If you doubt that there could potentially be a backlog of undertracked/no "others" data Wii million-sellers, remember that Nintendo announced there was 36 Wii million-shippers at the end of September. With most of the holiday season gone, VGC still is only to 34. (You can blame "shipments, not sales" too, of course.)

I think of it like this. Wii is ahead at one end of the spectrum with 10m sellers. These massive mega-sellers are made possible by the huge install base. It is ahead at the other end of the spectrum with 10K sellers. The massive amount of games with at least a tiny amount of sales is due to the higher total amount of games. 360 is ahead for most of the points in the middle. This represents a balance between the install base and the amount of titles; third parties as a whole release a safe amount of games so each game can sell a safe amount given the known, and linearly growing install base.

Wii will take a long time to find that balance. The huge sales of the system will result in a flood of too many titles. Misunderstanding of Wii's strategy will keep games from competing with Nintendo's 10m sellers so that more games total reach a mid-level sales threshold. But eventually, the two forces of install base and amount of games will be too overwhelming, and Wii will pull ahead of 360 at virtually every sales level.

The long and short of it is, nothing I have seen in the last few months has altered my perception of how this race is shaping up. Principles are not subject to circumstances, and the principles are still in Wii's favor.
These 10 million sellers are the reason the Wii isn't closing the gap.

Months over months the same title top the Wii charts, whereas new title keep topping the 360 charts ensuring the 360 has a steady supply of new million sellers.

As long as Wii owners keep purchasing the same 3 titles ( Mario Kart, Wii Fit, Wii Play), the Wii will not close the gap...

So if a Wii game sells the same as a 360 Top 10 game, but gets pushed lower on (or pushed off) the Wii Top 10 chart because of Wii Play, Wii Fit, MKW, etc., then ... ?

Then nothing.  It doesn't matter for sales. 

And if you're suggesting that those Nintendo games will sell SO massively that Wii owners won't even BUY anything else ... well, I guess you have more faith in Nintendo than we thought.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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Swoosh2000 on 22 December 2008
zleep said:
Of course Red Steel 2 will be a million seller. As for the Nintendo games, I rather be more cautious about confirming as official. Nintendo may have a few surprises, but until they are announced, you can't be sure of anything. And third parties will have tons of million sellers mainly because of the userbase. Even crappy games are selling good, so it doesnt matter if they are quality or not, most will sell decent. If they are quality, then better, but that's not the problem, the problem is that 3rd party devs need to advertise and hype their games if they want stellar sales, just look at what Nintendo managed. Even Crapnival Games sold almost 3 million with a decent ad campaign!

 

The only internal game Nintendo has on schedule for next year is Wii Sports Resort. I think it's safe to say they'll have more than that next year. 

I wonder what happened to that Kirby Wii title as well. That could be next year too. 



Pete_Beast on 22 December 2008

I think 360 will remain king until around 2010. Wii will beat it then.



Ail on 22 December 2008
Final-Fan said:
Ail said:
Erik Aston said:
People may be surprised with how fast Wii can catch up, especially since the perception is right now that 360 is stretching its lead.

Folks who have watched the database carefully may have noticed 2 things recently. First of all, a big database update for DS put a whole slew of games across critical marks, just a few months ago... And second, in last week's data, Wii added 11 500K sellers. So there are ways for a gap of 24 titles to disappear very quickly.

For that first point... If you doubt that there could potentially be a backlog of undertracked/no "others" data Wii million-sellers, remember that Nintendo announced there was 36 Wii million-shippers at the end of September. With most of the holiday season gone, VGC still is only to 34. (You can blame "shipments, not sales" too, of course.)

I think of it like this. Wii is ahead at one end of the spectrum with 10m sellers. These massive mega-sellers are made possible by the huge install base. It is ahead at the other end of the spectrum with 10K sellers. The massive amount of games with at least a tiny amount of sales is due to the higher total amount of games. 360 is ahead for most of the points in the middle. This represents a balance between the install base and the amount of titles; third parties as a whole release a safe amount of games so each game can sell a safe amount given the known, and linearly growing install base.

Wii will take a long time to find that balance. The huge sales of the system will result in a flood of too many titles. Misunderstanding of Wii's strategy will keep games from competing with Nintendo's 10m sellers so that more games total reach a mid-level sales threshold. But eventually, the two forces of install base and amount of games will be too overwhelming, and Wii will pull ahead of 360 at virtually every sales level.

The long and short of it is, nothing I have seen in the last few months has altered my perception of how this race is shaping up. Principles are not subject to circumstances, and the principles are still in Wii's favor.
These 10 million sellers are the reason the Wii isn't closing the gap.

Months over months the same title top the Wii charts, whereas new title keep topping the 360 charts ensuring the 360 has a steady supply of new million sellers.

As long as Wii owners keep purchasing the same 3 titles ( Mario Kart, Wii Fit, Wii Play), the Wii will not close the gap...

So if a Wii game sells the same as a 360 Top 10 game, but gets pushed lower on (or pushed off) the Wii Top 10 chart because of Wii Play, Wii Fit, MKW, etc., then ... ?

Then nothing.  It doesn't matter for sales. 

And if you're suggesting that those Nintendo games will sell SO massively that Wii owners won't even BUY anything else ... well, I guess you have more faith in Nintendo than we thought.

 

Well did you look at the sales charts these last months ?

The 3 Wii titles I mentionned seem to be the de facto purchase for new Wii owners and are eating the sales of others titles...

There isn't really a de facto purchase for 360 owners though so which ever AA title was recently released gets their pick...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Final-Fan on 22 December 2008

AKA the "massive launch, no legs" phenomenon. Wii titles tend to have legs, which don't show up as easily on sales charts.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

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Ail on 29 December 2008

Update :
360 : 61 (+3)
Wii : 37 (+3)
PS3 : 22 ( +1)



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Erik Aston on 29 December 2008

The lists for 360 and Wii will keep growing quickly in the next few weeks...

360
62 Far Cry 2 0.95m (136K last week)
76 Need for Speed: Undercover 0.78m (161K last week)
109 Prince of Persia 0.55m (187K last week)

Wii
38 Ben 10: Protector of Earth 0.99m (51K last week)
39 Naruto: Clash of Ninja Revolution 0.98m (51K last week)
40 Star Wars: The Force Unleashed 0.96m (72K last week)
41 Big Beach Sports 0.93m (61K last week)
54 Rayman Raving Rabbids: TV Party 0.75m (200K last week)



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

freakgamer on 29 December 2008



freakgamer on 29 December 2008



Viper1 on 29 December 2008

Wii will eventually pass X360 but it may take a few years.

The PS3 will likely always lag behind due to the lower install base.



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