Your last parahraph is true, but it is also true that no console maker has sucked for 2 generations and then come back to dominate a generation. Heck, GC finished 3rd! Also, no hardware company had ever dominated 2 generations like Sony did.

Just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't. I think every generation has been unique and there have not been that many. I think that's why the strategies differ so much. I think this generation is the most up for grabs ever. I think we've all been stuck on only 1 or 2 consoles succeeding. We'll see, though. I think unlike all the doomsayers over the last few months have predicted, it's not decided yet. Or maybe it is, but I'm not sure it's easy to predict. This fall/winter is going to be the most interesting in a long time.

umm...hate to break this to you, old guy, but the SNES did not dominate like the PS1 and PS2 did. Like I said, no hardware has dominated like Sony's 2 consoles in back to back generations. 5 to 3 is not near 3 to 1.

I never said that having success for 2 generations proves anything. I was showing that no generation is the same and things happen all the time that haven't before.

Case in point: no third-place console has ever had the third party support that the PS3 currently has.

Dude what are you smoking, give me some of it. The SNES sold 49 million units and the Genesis sold 13 million. Doing the math the SNES held 80% marketshare, better than EITHER the PSone of the PS2. Where is all this 3rd party support on the PS3? Flip through their anounced game libraries and there are more Wii games than PS3 games. Go to an EBgames and look at the Wii wall and the PS3 wall. It doesn't take a genius to count more on the Wii one. The PS3 isn't a bad game system, but people are going to need to accept it's success will be limited to around that of the Gamecube and N64 (except that the Gamecube and N64 were both profitable and the PS3 will be a big dip in the red).

Dude what are you smoking, give me some of it.  The SNES sold 49 million units and the Genesis sold 13 million.  Doing the math the SNES held 80% marketshare, better than EITHER the PSone of the PS2.  Where is all this 3rd party support on the PS3?  Flip through their anounced game libraries and there are more Wii games than PS3 games.  Go to an EBgames and look at the Wii wall and the PS3 wall.  It doesn't take a genius to count more on the Wii one.  The PS3 isn't a bad game system, but people are going to need to accept it's success will be limited to around that of the Gamecube and N64 (except that the Gamecube and N64 were both profitable and the PS3 will be a big dip in the red).

I agree with this, there are definitely mitigating factors. I'd add a few more that you didn't mention:

1) Consoles have never been graphically identical, but usually are fairly close in any given generation. It's rare, or even unprecedented, for any front running console to be so significantly below the graphical power of its competitors, as the Wii is.

2) The Wii has a very specific control system that diverges from tradition. It's unclear how this will change historical trends. It could very well lead to profound levels of dominance on Nintendo's part, reaching 60-70 percent market saturation as the PS2 had -- and we should note that this is in line with its current sales trends. But it's also possible it could go the other way. We don't know, no one's rocked the boat this much in a while.

3) No "winning" console has ever come in to the generation with lackluster third party support. The last time there was a passing of the baton, the PS1, Sony had third party support from the get go.

So I agree, there are definitely factors that make this generation a bit different from previous iterations. Still, this doesn't change the fact that no console has ever come back from the defecit that the PS3 has, or even made it close. They all get blown away by the end of the generational cycle. Those mitigating factors are worth noting, but they are just that -- mitigating factors -- when compared to 35 years of precedent and historical data.

I agree with this, there are definitely mitigating factors. I'd add a few more that you didn't mention:

1) Consoles have never been graphically identical, but usually are fairly close in any given generation. It's rare, or even unprecedented, for any front running console to be so significantly below the graphical power of its competitors, as the Wii is.

2) The Wii has a very specific control system that diverges from tradition. It's unclear how this will change historical trends. It could very well lead to profound levels of dominance on Nintendo's part, reaching 60-70 percent market saturation as the PS2 had -- and we should note that this is in line with its current sales trends. But it's also possible it could go the other way. We don't know, no one's rocked the boat this much in a while.

3) No "winning" console has ever come in to the generation with lackluster third party support. The last time there was a passing of the baton, the PS1, Sony had third party support from the get go.

So I agree, there are definitely factors that make this generation a bit different from previous iterations. Still, this doesn't change the fact that no console has ever come back from the defecit that the PS3 has, or even made it close. They all get blown away by the end of the generational cycle. Those mitigating factors are worth noting, but they are just that -- mitigating factors -- when compared to 35 years of precedent and historical data.

The Genesis sold 29 million units.

*Edit: Oops 30 million.

umm...hate to break this to you, old guy, but the SNES did not dominate like the PS1 and PS2 did. Like I said, no hardware has dominated like Sony's 2 consoles in back to back generations. 5 to 3 is not near 3 to 1.

I never said that having success for 2 generations proves anything. I was showing that no generation is the same and things happen all the time that haven't before.

Case in point: no third-place console has ever had the third party support that the PS3 currently has.

I think those factors are very important. Graphics aren't going to change for the Wii console, the control system limits the types of games that work well, and the third parties are launching their main games on 360 and PS3 still. It's still very early.