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Bodhesatva said:
 

I agree with this, there are definitely mitigating factors. I'd add a few more that you didn't mention:

1) Consoles have never been graphically identical, but usually are fairly close in any given generation. It's rare, or even unprecedented, for any front running console to be so significantly below the graphical power of its competitors, as the Wii is.

2) The Wii has a very specific control system that diverges from tradition. It's unclear how this will change historical trends. It could very well lead to profound levels of dominance on Nintendo's part, reaching 60-70 percent market saturation as the PS2 had -- and we should note that this is in line with its current sales trends. But it's also possible it could go the other way. We don't know, no one's rocked the boat this much in a while.

3) No "winning" console has ever come in to the generation with lackluster third party support. The last time there was a passing of the baton, the PS1, Sony had third party support from the get go.

So I agree, there are definitely factors that make this generation a bit different from previous iterations. Still, this doesn't change the fact that no console has ever come back from the defecit that the PS3 has, or even made it close. They all get blown away by the end of the generational cycle. Those mitigating factors are worth noting, but they are just that -- mitigating factors -- when compared to 35 years of precedent and historical data.

 

  That's not true either.  The difference in graphical strength between the N64 and PSone was gigantic.  It obviously had no effect on sales whatsoever.  Granted, it wasn't quite as large as the current difference between the Wii and it's competitors (at least in raw power), but there is certainly a very glaring precedent for a significantly weaker console to win the generation in a big way.  The Wii certainly doesn't have horrible 3rd party support either.  Granted, 99% of those 3rd party games are currently crap, but that was the case with the PS2 as well.  That didn't stop it from being an awesome system though.