Soul Calibur IV announced on 360 and PS3 not on Wii in 2008

[Bodhesatva]

windbane said:

Bodhesatva said:

Legend11 said:
I think it's just people jumping on the bandwagon when it comes to putting down the PS3, for all we know sales could pick up dramatically for it sometime in the future. There were 120 million PS2s bought as well as ~48 million of the competition and even with overlap that's still a lot of people who haven't picked a new console and that's not even counting the unknown number of casual users that have picked up the Wii to go along with gamers from the previous generation, etc, so it's all still up for grabs.

Legend -- I first want to say that I've very much agreed with (Almost?) everything you've said thus far in this thread. 360/PS3 software development will not dry up.

With that said, this particular post seems a bit off. Not hugely off, but worth commenting on. The suggestion that "for all we know" the PS3 sales could "pick up dramatically sometime in the future," is a little unfair. Yes, that's technically possible, just as it was technically possible that the Gamecube would have sold 100 million consoles int he last year of it's lifespan, thus leading it to ultimate victory in the generation. That was possible -- just hilariously and extremely unlikely.

As others have noted, no console being outsold 2:1 (let alone 3:1, 4:1 or 5:1, as is the case for the PS3) for months at a time right out of the launch gate has ever suddenly come back and made that ground up. Not once, ever. Not even close, in fact. Does this mean it's technically impossible for the PS3 to come back? No. But your wording suggests it's very possible, if not likely; that's unrealistic. What I would say is this: it's not impossible that the PS3 will end up leading this generational cycle, but it's extremely unlikely. Again, not a case where I think you're totally wrong, but I thought it deserved revision all the same.

Your last parahraph is true, but it is also true that no console maker has sucked for 2 generations and then come back to dominate a generation. Heck, GC finished 3rd! Also, no hardware company had ever dominated 2 generations like Sony did.

Just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't. I think every generation has been unique and there have not been that many. I think that's why the strategies differ so much. I think this generation is the most up for grabs ever. I think we've all been stuck on only 1 or 2 consoles succeeding. We'll see, though. I think unlike all the doomsayers over the last few months have predicted, it's not decided yet. Or maybe it is, but I'm not sure it's easy to predict. This fall/winter is going to be the most interesting in a long time.

I agree with this, there are definitely mitigating factors. I'd add a few more that you didn't mention:

1) Consoles have never been graphically identical, but usually are fairly close in any given generation. It's rare, or even unprecedented, for any front running console to be so significantly below the graphical power of its competitors, as the Wii is.

2) The Wii has a very specific control system that diverges from tradition. It's unclear how this will change historical trends. It could very well lead to profound levels of dominance on Nintendo's part, reaching 60-70 percent market saturation as the PS2 had -- and we should note that this is in line with its current sales trends. But it's also possible it could go the other way. We don't know, no one's rocked the boat this much in a while.

3) No "winning" console has ever come in to the generation with lackluster third party support. The last time there was a passing of the baton, the PS1, Sony had third party support from the get go.

So I agree, there are definitely factors that make this generation a bit different from previous iterations. Still, this doesn't change the fact that no console has ever come back from the defecit that the PS3 has, or even made it close. They all get blown away by the end of the generational cycle. Those mitigating factors are worth noting, but they are just that -- mitigating factors -- when compared to 35 years of precedent and historical data.