I only saw 1 prediction with the Wii in the lead. It seems not all analysts are stupid enough to think that more than 10% of PS2 userbase was a die hard sony fan.

Total Through 2010 (Japan)
PS3 - 65%
Wii - 25%
360 - 10%

Patchers Predictions XD. A good laugh.

Anyone knows where to find DS vs PSP prediction numbers ?

I'll put up another w/w prediction league soon, so everyone can re-try em.

My predictions (atleast IMO) seem to be probably the closest minus the DS, but we'll just have to see.

I can think of atleast 3-5 forum people that have better % accuracies than Patcher does.

It's interesting to see how low the Wii was predicted.

Also, diego, if 10% of Sony's fans were completely die hard and would instantly snatch things up, about 7 million ps3's would be sold by now, with them flying off the shelves instantly.. Most accurate number in that case is about 3% are slaves to Sony.

That or they'll pull what Mariah Carey fans tried to and each buy Multiple PS3's (Or "Glitter" albums) in an attempt to make it look more popular.

Or became DethKlok fans and commit suicide when they couldn't afford or find a ps3 at the beginning.

Huh. Both ideas are completely seperate. Ahh well. Analysts, back to work! George Carlin will die soon and people need laughter.

I would say it is more like 1-1.5%% are Sony slave and 1.5-2% got a cheap BR player.

Everyone has to remember that the same analysts made very similar predictions about the PSP and Nintendo DS.

The reason why so many of these anaysts are so often wrong is that they base their estimates on factors which really don't matter but they can justify in their report (brand value.. Many people on this site are far more accurate because (I expect) they focus more on the "product" ant the people they know who would be interested in the product and willing to buy it; when you look at it from that perspective the expensive HD consoles seem to have much lower potential sales.

Nah, the rest of them are waiting for MGS4, FFXII and GT5. But thats it.

How are you all so sure that this generation will continue going in this same direction for the next 5 years?

How are you sure it wont?

That's definitely a fair point. I think the reasonable peopel are saying that it's likely these trends will continue, not that they are certain. I'd say the chances of the 1/2/3rd positions going Wii/360/PS3 are somewhere around 75 percent at this point: meaning I believe that there is a 25 percent chance that those systems will end up in some other position.

Still, a lot of these analysts are already wrong. 19.5 million PS3s this year? They'd need to sell 17.5 million consoles in the second half of the year. Some predicted less than 5 million Wiis sold worldwide, and we're already past that.