He has forgot about a group. The group of people that buy only one game for their console, and that will go for the cheapest option, because graphics really don´t matter to them. Those gamers are everywhere in South America, and I think in Europe too. The biggest example of this will probably be Winning Eleven. Millions of ps2 sold in Latin America thanks to that game.

I think that falls in the casual gamer, though he said they buy 3 games; 2 of them being GTA.

Onee problem with these editorials, is if they don't some how coienside with current sales treands, they're wrong. The gaming industry moves SLOWLY. A console's life is determined in the first 6months of it's life. Because of that, it's unlikely the Wii will just drop off of sales charts. The industry always fallows the highest sellers.

I just don't see where people get the idea that the Wii bubble will burst, the system has been out seven months, you can't expect that the library will be AAA in seven months.

The reason this opinion on the Wii bubble bursting keep coming up is because the small minorities on ALL sides of an issue yell the loudest. The Wii fans are screaming that the wiivolution is here, get on board or be first against the firing range wall. The HD fans are yelling that anything less than 1080p is like watching paint dry and the Wiiwii is for kids.

The fact is, the other 95% of the population doesn't give a rats ass one way or the other. Those 95% are the people who buy stuff because it looks fun, or maybe buy it because it has killer graphics, but after they've made their purchase they don't care who else shares their likes and dislikes, because they have what they want.

Currently, in my opinion, that 95% is talking with their money and the Wii is currently in the spotlight. That same 95% won't ever read that guys editorial so don't realise that the bubble is going to burst because they didn't realise there was a bubble in the first place. That is why momentum builds until you have one market leader that tends to dominate the others each generation, because that 95% doesn't know anything about the state of the industry, all they know is that when they go to walmart there are 10 times as many games for this system, so it must be good.

Too true, we wouldn't like to admit it but we are the sad arses who like to chat about our chosen console being the best because of the graphics or controller or online play but the other 99% of the world don't actually read any of this they just go with what's fun and affordable.

From what I am hearing from my children the DS, Wii and Xbox 360 are all selling well because of what they hear from other children and it is surprsing the number of girls that own a Wii when thier last console was a PS2.

Almost every child I know has DS, a few have a PSP and quite a lot at my childrens' schools seem to have a Wii and Xbox360 but all the children that own a PS3 that I know of only have that console and no others.

 We are group number one in this person's editorial, the group so into games that we spend as much time discussing it on boards as we do playing

I couldnt have said it better myself...

Well, I probably could have, but I didnt. So, good job. 

Great article. One can quibble about the groups - I think group 2 (Traditional Casual Gamers) probably has a few subgroups in it- but the anlysis is essentially correct.

Remember people criticized the GCN for lack of online support. By the "end" of the last gen, the majority of gamers were still not gaming online (about 25% of XBox users, the console most dedicated to the idea). I don't know anyone who really credits the GCN's lack of online support as a reason for it doing so poorly.

The same thing seems to be happening with HD-TV/DVD. People are reluctant to get it, and confused by the formats. Many just want the big, flat screen, and can't tell the difference in the picture. I expect that to change over time, but I don't see it as a huge factor in the Wii's lifetime (which, if it keeps to form, will be about 3 more years, then one last "life support" year leading up the Wii2 launch).

And really, other than making games prettier or putting more enemies on the screen, the vast majority of games will not have their gameplay substantially altered by graphical horsepower.

Why I don't think the bubble will burst.

1. 8 million installed users in less than 8 months.

2. Cheap to develop for.

3. Continued domination of Japan, PS3 is too expensive, too big to sell like the ps2 did and 360 won't sell unless something majorly unexpected happens (i.e. 200 yen for premium model,  final fantasy, DQ, etc.)

4. DS connection, not just connectivity but the psychological connection.  Synergy is key.  Products complement each other, so do the games and vibe.  And we all know, the DS prints money.  PS3 associates itself with PSP well, and 360 with Windows but both face a negative stigma with those products.

5.If 360 drops in price and starts to threaten Wii dominance, Nintendo is in a better position (because they actually profit) to drop the price or include a different game to increase sales.

6. $20 and $50 games.  I know that they are planning on charging $49.99 for touch generations style games (Big Brain already is).  But in their "Worst case scenario" they could quickly and easily expand the library with $20 t.g. games if needed.  They can also repackage GCN games at $20, they might even quick port them for wii, and toss em in with a classic controller like Wii Play was included with the Wiimote. Suddenly at Christmas, Mom can buy a 360 with 30 games available for $29.99 or a Wii with 100+ games available for $19.99.  Don't under estimate budget titles, these are what killed the N64 and brought dominance for PS1 and 2.

7.Impulse purchase for families is not $249, it's $199.  This snowball at $199 also goes hand in hand with budget titles and cheaper used peripherals.  (GC was $199 but nintendo was very slow to lower games to $19.99, Mario Kart Double Dash was $49 for two years.)

8.  Harcore gamers are trend setters, this is how we got into this quirky/non-game thing in the first place.  Hardcore dropped Street Fighter 2 and went to Golden Eye then Parappa the Rappa, while the Casual went from Mortal Kombat to Halo to Guitar Hero.  The true hardcore are always itching for some new way to play.