"

Ah, I see now. This is an "if you exclude X and exclude Y" thread. Let's start working out the kinks, I guess.

First and foremost, I think it's highly likely that the 2% of respondants who own all 3 consoles is inclusive of those who also own 2 of the 3 consoles (that is, if you own all 3, then of course you also own 2). Therefore, the total isn't 5 percent (3+2), it's simply 3 percent, which immediately knocks the total down to ~13%.

Milfey said:

"Read the article. It says 2% own 3, and 3% own 2 of the next-gen (Wii/X360/PS3) consoles."

The article does not say that. Read more carefully, please."

That's conjecture. In my experience, these studies usually are more precise. I would wager that 3% own exactly 2, and 2% own exactly 3. But again, that's conjecture just the same. ANd the article DOES say what I stated, and not what you're assuming. Why are you asking me to read it once again? I assume your browser works, but I can post the quote here if you need. What the heck...

"Finally, NPD says only three percent of respondents said they owned two of the three next-gen consoles, and only 2 percent said they owned all three."

Pretty sure that's what I said previously. You're supposing that the 3% includes the 2%, and I'm not, because it would say so if it did. The headline of the article is meaningless as well. That's a news report, not the study.

Its a shame no one has the entire study and can post the real info, not just the culled crap from Gamasutra.

No, it does not say what you're stating. It.does.not. Let me quote the relevant portion, for your ease or reading:

Finally, NPD says only three percent of respondents said they owned two of the three next-gen consoles, and only 2 percent said they owned all three.

Does it say anywhere that 3 precent own only two of the three consoles? No, it does not. Therefore, it does not say what you're stating. Given that most statistics are inclusive (both in my experience, and by reason: it's extra work and math to make such statistics exclusive), it is much more likely this is an inclusive statistic.

Another error: as you had considered, the figures on our front page include all of North America, so the actual current-gen adoption would be lower in just the US. This would actually increase the multi-console ownership amongst the current-gen owners.  

It doesn't specify that either conjecture is true... but the headline does imply that you are correct, and not I. Let's take that into consideration, and get to the meat of this discussion, rather than arguing about english, and the brilliance of the media. Math is what's relevant here.

3% of 95 mil households in the US ==

2.85 mil

2/3rds own 3, 1/3 owns 2, according to the new conjecture.

5.7 million consoles owned by "triple owners"... 1.9 million owned by "double owners" == 7.6 million

28.67 - 5.7 - 1.9 =21.07

+ 2.85 == 23.92 million next-gen console households

2.85 / 23.92 == 11.91%

Still a lot higher than "5%" or "3%", but perhaps not as significant?

I found articles about the study on Gamasutra.com and GamersReports.com. However, I can't even find the actual press release on NPD's own website. There's no way that we will get actual data from the study from them. The most I found out about the study is this:

Methodology
Data was collected via an online survey of 20,240 NPD Consumer Panel members ages 2 and older. Respondents age 2-12 were captured via surrogate reporting whereby the female parent (age 21-55) brings her child to computer to answer questions, either with or without parent’s assistance. In order to qualify as an online gamer, respondents had to use one or more of the following systems to play games online: Nintendo DS/DS Lite handheld system, Nintendo Wii, PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, Sony PSP handheld system, Xbox, Xbox 360 or PC. Gamers overall (whether online or offline) were included in the study as well. Fieldwork was conducted from January 11 – February 5, 2008.

I'm always a little wary of studies that rely on these voluntary surveys of consumer panel members.

 It's still relevant, I don't mean to discredit your work here, Mife. I would conjecture the following:

1) This percentage will decrease over time. Hardcore players are early adopters, and early adopters are more likely to own multiple consoles.

2) This percentage will be higher this generation, due to the distinctions between the Wii and PS3/360. Particularly, I expect dual-console ownership to increase.  

This is based on an voluntary, online study then? That's very discouraging -- it makes the survey disproportionately heavy towards online savvy consumers. 

It's hard to quantify that effect. 

Okay, I think our ability to quantify this thread has run its course (unless someone can prove otherwise).

Mife, as critical as I have been in this thread, great work. Even if we didn't reach robust conclusions, I'm very glad to see someone else trying to work the math out on these things, and I think, at the very least, you've shown that multi-console ownership is likely higher than most think. 

^^

I agree. I would have assumed that multi-console ownership would have been much lower.

Ok. Well after some googling (which takes awhile on my slow dial up internet ), I found this study. States that there are roughly 111 million US households in 2006, which doesn't include college campuses, institutions, and other "group quaters" it seems. I feel that the number of these types of households is small, and most likely wouldn't increase the number of consoles per household, simply because I bet many college kids (the ones most likely to own a console) would use the console at school and at home).

I also found this study, which states that about 41.1% of US households own a console that connects to a TV (so the DS and PSP are not included). Assuming that the number of households own one of those "mini-consoles" from Froggy that usually only have 1 or 2 games, and are mostly learning games anyway, is negligible (.1%), then we can assume 41% of US households actually own a video game console. The study runs from Q4 of 2004 to Q4 of 2006.

So by combining the studies, we can estimate there are roughly 45.5 million households with consoles in them.

Finally, using this study, we can break down the percentages of ownership a bit. It says 40% (44.4 million) of US households own a gaming device, but that includes PC, console, or handheld device. It then goes on to say 89% (39.5 million) of those gamers game on a video game console, and 23% (10.2 million) own all three. It then goes on to state that 57% of gamers own a PS2, 39% own an Xbox, and 27% own a GameCube, with 8% owning all three. Now it depends on what these percentages are of.

I'm assuming the percents are of the percent of gamers/households with a console (the 89%, or 39.5 million), then the number of households with a PS2, Xbox, and GC, and all three, are as follows: 22.5 million, 15.4 million, 10.6 million, and 3.16 million, respectively. If you add PS2, Xbox, and GC together, then subtract the number with all three, you get 45.3 million users with a console, but only 39.5 million households. So that means 5.8 million, or 14.6%, of households also own 2 consoles. That would mean about 9 million, or 22.8%, of households in the USA own more than one console, which seems to agree with your findings.

*Extended Thought Edit*

If one uses the first two studies to determine the # of households that own a console (45.5 million), then the numbers are a bit different. PS2, Xbox, GC, and all three numbers: 25.9 million, 17.7 million, 12.3 million, and 3.64 million. Since the Xbox only sold 15 million in the America's total, this doesn't work very well (though neither does the first one). Adding the three together and subtracting the all three ownership, you get 52.3 million, so there are 6.8 million (14.9%) households with 2 consoles in them, for a total of 22.9% (the percents would be the same) or households in the USA own more than 1 console.

The problem may be that the # of households that I am using is too large. Perhaps they were using 2004 data, which states there were only 109 million households, or even older data (as both numbers are greater than your 95 million household number). 

If anyone finds a problem with my logic, let me know. It's late, so my reasoning skills aren't 100%.

Here are some other interesting things I found:

Google answers with a lot of good info (and sources to back it up!).

Of course, those studies don't answer the question of how many owners have more than one of the current gen console, it only shows how many owners of the 6th gen consoles might have owned more than one. But that gives a good idea of what multiplat ownership is like.