DMeisterJ said: NJ5 said: DMeisterJ said: NJ5 said: DMeisterJ said: Right right, I understand saturation. But it looks like Wii Owners don't since they're buying these crap games. |
The PS2 went just fine ;) |
That PS2 argument is so old. PS2 wasn't marketed as a casual gaming system. The Wii is. |
Nice change of subject. |
No subject change here, just that, because the Wii is marketed casually, and the PS2 wasn't, that argument is irrelevant. I was simply debunking your myth of the Wii = PS2 in terms of casual games. |
First off, I don't really think the Wii is marketed casually. The games might be (since there aren't a lot of commercials for most Wii games) but Nintendo has pushed Wii commercials. Thus is it marketed "casually." That, and if you watch one of the first videos of the Wii, it has a guy (in a dark room no less) playing Metroid Prime 3.
Second, until a casual Wii game can sell 17 million like GTA:SA did (and WiiSport doesn't count because it's bundled, and WiiPlay doesn't count because it has a controller bundled), the Wii won't be as casual as the PS2 was. Also, there was another thread that was looking at some of the top selling Wii games, and putting them into categories, casual, both, or hardcore. It wasn't all doom and gloom either if you ask me.
Also, I think saturation is already starting to take effect. For every "horribly bad, but high selling casual game" such as Carnival Games, you have a decent number of "horribly bad, and low selling casual games" such as EA Playground. Course, I wouldn't know if either game is really "horribly bad" but since it's a casual game, everyone just assumes they are. EA Playground was also marketed a bit, both on TV and in the Wal-Stores on those TV things they have. But it didn't sell well at all. So either Carnival Games is actually better than EA Playground, or casual owners don't need to buy as many games as traditional gamers do. I think the second one is the correct one, because most casual users don't buy a lot of games, so saturation is going to happen faster.
And that's why Nintendo is going to move upstream. Try and get some of these casual users to become more like traditional gamers, because they'll buy more games this way. They did it with the DS, and they're doing it again with the Wii. It's already started (Mario Kart). But since Nintendo is the only one that understands what they are doing, they'll be the ones that make the games that are going to sell like crazy as the userbase moves up tier levels. The casual crazy is over! Time to move up, to bridge games!
Unfortunately, 3rd parties are probably going to be behind Nintendo by a tier this entire generation, simply because they don't understand what Nintendo is doing (note: read Malstrom's articles, it'll start making sense). That's why Nintendo will probably always have the best selling games, until they finally reach the top tier, and then the 3rd parties will catch up and be able to sell.
It's sort of like the DS. The DS top selling games are mostly casual games (the training games and Nintendo's for example), but since casual games appeal to many, many people, it's no doubt that they do so well. Then, Nintendo moved upstream (while 3rd parties finally started getting on board the "casual craze" that was already over). Mario Kart DS is a bridge game. I would say it sold decently. It still appears in the top 50, even after 2 years on the market! Then 3rd parties saw, and were amazed, so they moved upstream (Imagine: Babyz I would actually consider a bridge game). But again, Nintendo had already claimed much of the market, thus the sales difference for Mario Kart DS (10.77 million) and Imagine: Babyz(1.72 million) or even MySims(2.29 million). Pokemon probably represents a mid-tier between the bridge games and the top tier, and it's at 14.82 million. Sorry 3rd parties, you're late to the party. Then finally the top tier, with games like Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass. And finally 3rd parties are catching up, with games like DQIX, The World Ends With You, and the many other DS games coming out this year. Unfortunately, the top tier games don't sell as well as the lower tiers (since they appeal to fewer people), so the top selling games on the DS will probably always be Nintendo games (since nothing will pass the likes of Nintendogs and Pokemon), so people will always bitch that they can't compete. Course, without the DS, Japanese developers wouldn't have anywhere to go (espiecally small ones).
So basically, saturation at the bottom happens faster, because even though the games appeal to more users, the users buy few games. Saturation probably never happens (gamers always are thirsty for the next thing) at the top, because even though the games might appeal to fewer users, those users buy more games.
So Ubisoft, just like many (if not most) 3rd parties, believe the Wii to be a casual fanfest, but will be to late the create many casual games (though RRR sold well). And once other, more traditional games start selling, they'll be too late to that party as well.