I think everyone is probably right ...
When it comes to genres which have been highly successful on the PS3 and XBox 360 (like First Person Shooters, Sports Games, Racing Games, and Sandbox games) it is highly likely that developers will continue to focus their efforts towards the PS3 and XBox 360; this doesn't mean that the Wii won't get a version of these games, but it is more likely to be handled as its own game where they focus on the strengths of the Wii.
At the same time the Wii will see a lot of exclusive games (including games in the genres the XBox 360 and PS3 are strong in) because its large and rapidly growing userbase will be able to support these games without the need to port these games; some of these games will be made by smaller publishers who can't afford HD development, while others will continue to be made by the largest publishers.
Where the Wii will likely become the standard platform (and the PS3 and XBox 360 will see ports) is from licenced games. Within 12 to 18 months the PS2 is not going to be seen as the dominant console on the market anymore, and developers will need to ensure that their game that needs to release at the same time as a movie is made for the new dominant platform (the Wii); they could produce a seperate PS3 and XBox 360 version but those additional costs would never be recovered in the sale of the game so it probably won't happen.