Am i living in 2505? Is this "Idiocracy" already?

If the HD total userbase is 40 millions by the end of the year, then Wii has to sell 14 millions more by the end of the year to reach 40 millions and the famous 50% market share...

Right now, the gap is: 31.54 millions for PS3+360 minus 26.18 for Wii, so Wii needs 5.36 millions more...

I think it will happen, but not in 2008, rather in the first half of 2009...

Eventually Wii ends up having around 70% of the market. It reaches 50% market share before the end of Nintendos current FY.

wii will eventually reach 50% market share but it won't be able to maintain that share for too long.

 You are so right. :p 

 I don't think it's even a question any more whether Wii will pass 50% marketshare or not. Just when. :p

And like Pete stated above, Nintendo haven't done ANYTHING like MS and Sony have done to increase their sales. They can still introduce new colors, bundles, price cuts, anything.

Can you imagine what would happen if Nintendo were to release a choice of white, black, pink, blue, red and silver Wiis, priced at $199, bundled with Wii Sports and Wii Play (+ Wiimote)? Or any other games for that matter? Brawl and Mario Galaxy? Zelda and Metroid? Mario Kart and Wii Fit? Or just Wii Fit by itself with a Wii for $199? 

 It would be the end of the world as we know it. :p 

Ok... a simple mistake, I was in a hurry.

Woot!

It's not a matter of "will it happen", it's "when will it happen".

Also, depending on when in the year it happens, it could go below 50% again before rising back up. Compared to PS360, the Wii is stronger outside the holiday period due to supply constraints.

I think it will reach 50% by the end of the year, but I also think it's sales will slow down in 2009 as 360 and PS3 sales increase with more and more people getting HDTVs.

It's symply a matter of maths, it depends on which value the AVERAGE ratio of Wii's weekly sales to the others' combined ones will stabilize on.

Wii's market share (%) = 100*Wii avg wkly sales /(PS3 avg wkly sales + XBox 360 avg wkly sales)

Obviously, as the functions of weekly sales are neither continuous nor known thus far, we won't know the exact result until the end of all three consoles' lifecycle (*), but knowing the averages over a time span long enough we can draw some approximations and if we can determine bounds to minimum and maximum values we can also do some predictions, but only over a short period.

But what we can say now is that if actual market share is less than 50%, Wii's weekly sales must be greater than the sum of the others over a time long enough to make it possible to reach 50%.

(*) but by then the result will be more easily and trivially calculated as 100* Wii total sales / Others total sales

No, never!!!

On a bad week, it does that, at this point. On a good month, it outsells the 360 and PS3 combined and then doubled, despite being severly supply constrained, in America. In Japan, it continuiously outsells the PS3 by at least 4 to 1.

If the Wii is gonna get kept from its 50 percent, two things need to happen:

1. Microsoft needs to step up its game, worldwide.

2. Nintendo sales need to drop off, worldwide.

Otherwise, we're very likely to see a 50+ percent market share sometime next fiscal year or possibly earlier. 

The Wii certainly has come a long way from the time when virtually every Nintendo foeboy on this forum said that 50 percent market share was impossible. On that day, old posts will be dug up, oh yes.