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Forums - Sales Discussion - Now Do You Think Nintendo Will Reach 50% Market?

reverie on 27 May 2008

Oyvoyvoyv said:
Okay, time to put some facts.

[...]

For Wii to outsell Ps360 by 178K/week, it would have to break even in Others (sell as much as ps360) (it is currently selling 35K less/week.)

In Japan it would have to increase to 80K/week (it is selling 45K/week more currently, but here holiday should give a major boost, as Ps360 doesn't sell a lot)

In America it would have to sell 90K more /week, compared to 10K/week so far this year. During the last 2 months, it has sold about 60K/week more, and with holiday it could make 80K/week.

This means, that for Wii to outsell Ps360, it would need to average:

Japan: 110K

Others: 200K

America: 250K

WW: 560K/week. Or 2426K/month.

The above estimation includes holiday seasons, but has perhaps not taken it into big enough account. Real number might be closer to 2600K/month.


Well obviously Nintendo has the production increases in place to make it happen. Europe and Japan probably won't improve much, but the US will. Last month we saw 700k Wii vs. 400k HD consoles. I could imagine this ratio going up to 1000k vs. 300k for the summer months which would be the 100k/week increase you asked for.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

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DMeisterJ on 27 May 2008

Hrm...

it may or may not...

Depends on supply of Wii, and how big games on PS360 affect console sales (MGS4, LBP, Gears 2, Fable 2, etc.)



reverie on 27 May 2008

Actually the NPD report said "3 % of the respondents" to the study. 97 % may own either one or zero current gen consoles or no console at all.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

Renar on 27 May 2008
Mifely said:

Just for fun, I decided to use World numbers in the same calculations I did above.

Total software units sold last week, worldwide, top 20 titles only:

Wii: 1.732M

X360: 1.084M

PS3: 0.783M

 

As a market share, big assumption that each unit averages out about the same for profit across consoles:

Wii: 48.12%

X360: 30.12%

PS3: 21.76%

 

As a % software units (week) market share over number of HW units (total) market share:

Wii: 48.12/45.36 = 1.0608

X360: 30.12/32.76 = 0.9194

PS3: 21.76/21.88 = 0.9945

 

...so indeed, worldwide, even by my wacky calculations, the Wii looks to be the champ in every dept. I stand humbled. Thanks for all the personal attacks. I love an intelligent discussion.

I've noticed that the data seems biased more heavily for the 360/PS3 toward new releases (current example: GTA4), whereas the Wii appears to have more consistent numbers through its top 20. This, to me, seems to suggest that HD console owners are more likely to be interested in jumping the gun and purchasing software at full price (perhaps this goes hand-in-hand with their willingness to buy a more expensive console), which might imply that my "big assumption" about per-unit profits averaging out for large numbers may be a bigger assumption than I originally thought.

Sorry to bring ideas to the table, as always. Good luck with your flame wars.


 Mifely,

You pointed out (or nearly so) what everyone else missed on your original suggestion.  And that is, Wii games tend to have lower sales in its new releases than 360/PS3.  But, are more consistant *and* have better legs, that is, sales do not fall off as fast.  Which is why using newly released software numbers only would be biased against Nintendo.

As pointed out in another thread, for the US software sales, Wii in its first 18 months has sold more software than PS3, X360 and even PS2.  This excludes Wii Sports and any VC games.

 



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.

Wonktonodi on 27 May 2008

so it's 5% that own more than one console since 3% own two and 2% own three
something else to notice the wii market share has gone down



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cattmanndann on 27 May 2008

no as long as xbox and ps3 sell more than wii the wont be able to get to 50 percent the wii % will likley go back down to 40



SaviorX on 27 May 2008
LongLiveTheBeatles said:
Grampy said:
LongLiveTheBeatles said:

A more likely event is that the wii will continue selling at the current rate but losing a tiny bit of market share whenever a huge AAA game comes out for the PS3 or 360. I think it will level out at 48% and stay there will the PS3 at 27% and the 360 at 25%.


Oh, you mean like the Wii lost market share when GTA IV came out?

Dream on!


And when did it miraculously sell 600,000 consoles. So you're saying that the wii sell 600,000 consoles everytime a AAA game is released.

Give me a break.


 Actually Grampy didn't say that.........at all. He never even posted a number. He just said that the Wii actually gained marketshare during the week where the biggest multiplatform game of this generation thus far was released.



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

TaterTurds on 27 May 2008

of course it will, and for the next few years it will keep growing larger, that's just the way it is, you know ive often wondered how the console sales would have gone if all 3 came out at the same time, hmmmmm



trestres on 27 May 2008
cattmanndann said:
no as long as xbox and ps3 sell more than wii the wont be able to get to 50 percent the wii % will likley go back down to 40

Hmm, and when did PS3 + 360 sell more than the Wii WW? Not this month, for the last weeks Wii > PS3 + 360

 A good advice, check facts before making a ridiculous statement.



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cattmanndann on 28 May 2008

hey buddy im stating for the future not the past tense im saying as long AS they sell more ...not that they have in the past .... and i do check my data thanks