So. GTA IV. This fall. 360 and PS3. Anyone want to guess who "wins" this? So far, I can say: "Not the Wii."

My first responses were these: "Well, the PS3 is the successor to the PS2, so many GTA fans are familiar with the game on that platform." However, this thought was immediately followed by: "But really, these two games are (nearly?) identical, and since the 360 is 200 dollars cheaper, anyone buying a system for this game would probably buy a 360, Sony loyalties be damned."

Anyone want to argue with or add to those statements?  

I would have to agree, look at sega and sonic fans....if Nintendo made games only, I am sure if we wanted mario or zelda, and there were 2 systems, we would buy the cheaper of the 2.

With the recent drop in price for one of Sony's Blu-ray players to $499, I think it is almost safe to say there will be a price-cut for the PS3 this year (I look forward to Gballzack eating crow ).

But, even so, a PS3 price-cut would pretty much guarantee a 360 price-cut, no less than 50 bucks. If it's 100, a core 360 could be had for 200 bucks. Either way, I think the 360 will be the bigger benefactor of the GTA effect.

everyone already knows about gta4.  it is huge and everyone knows it.  that is why people are already deciding which console to get.  i think if the ps3 can pull off a price drop to 500 by then it could work out for ps3, because of mgs4, ff13, and other sequels.  if prices stay the same it could go anywhere.

MS launching Halo one month before GTA is a brilliant move. Combined with being $200 cheaper, this should help convince many prospective 360/PS3 buyers to go to the 360 camp.

GTA will definitely help Sony move PS3s but I think that when combined with H3, GTA will help MS move many more 360s.

It will probably sell best on the XBox 360 because it already has a larger userbase in North America and it is $200 cheaper (meaning that it will be the obvious choice for someone who is picking up the system to play the game); on top of that Halo 3 will be one of the biggest games this year and there are a lot of people who will be interested in both games.

At the same time, I fully expect GTA 4 to be one of the lowest selling GTA games because the combined userbase of the PS3 and XBox 360 is smaller than the userbase for the PS2 when GTA 3 was released; and even with a price reduction these systems are still too expensive to buy for one game.

most former Ps2 owners looking for a next gen console don't give a rats ass about halo.

They will go where FF GTA MGS is why because they grew up on those games, and GTA4 will be a good reason to buy the console early at full price.

oh one thing on the blu ray price drop. they do that because they can still make a bunch of money off of the player. for something like this it means costs are significantly down. good for a ps3 price drop.

It's interesting, though. I mean, of course we all know it exists, but I would say we talk about GTA IV profoundly less than would seem warranted. For example, we talk at great length about Eternal Sonata, BioShock, Heavenly Sword, Mario Galaxy... but I have yet to see any threads really delve into GTA IV. Very few people here list the game on their most wanted list. And yet, GTA is the single most popular franchise in the last 6 years. It's bigger than the last iterations of God of War, Tekken, Final Fantasy, and Metal Gear Solid combined. It absolutely dwarfs them.

ahh the gta effect..
is a phrase that encapsulates the more technical notion of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory. Small variations of the initial condition of a nonlinear dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. So this is sometimes presented as esoteric behavior, but can be exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill might roll into any of several valleys depending on slight differences in initial position.


oh wait...that was the butterfly effect...my bad!