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Forums - Sales - Can Nintendo catch Sony?

Kasz216 on 19 May 2008
Beja-Beja said:
wow this just reminded me of how much the ps1 and ps2 pwned hard! and how much of a diiapointment the ps3 is saleswise.

It's more a statment of how much the Market has grown.  I mean the NES was quite the dominant console itself. 

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SWA_JM_Obi-Wan on 19 May 2008

Growth would be expected eveny a very healthy growth, but doubling in a Single generation would be unheard of. espeacially in a day when the industry is icredibly large as it is.



Kasz216 on 19 May 2008
Final-Fan said:
jonager said:
u cant compare NES SNES n64 CG Wii vs PS1 PS2 PS3 that makes 5 vs 3 wich is not fair
u gotta compare n64 cg wii vs ps 1 2 3 and ull see how bad nintendo did in the last 10 yrs ec for wii of course
How about this: NES, SNES, and Wii versus PS1, PS2, PS3? This is a much more interesting fight; currently 137m vs. 233m. I predict that The total will end up close but with the PlayStations higher; specifically, that the Wii will end up 80-100m higher than the PS3 (including its current 13m lead). That is not enough for the selected Nintendo consoles to win, especially since the PS2 is still selling.

 That in itself isn't really fair since the PS1 and the PS2 reaped the rewards of what the NES and SNES laid the groundwork for.

5 vs 3 as it may be it's the more "fair" comparison. 

Otherwise it's like measuring time running through the snow... the NES and SNES went first, therefore there was less resistance for the playstation consoles. 



Final-Fan on 19 May 2008
Kasz216 said:
Final-Fan said:
jonager said:
u cant compare NES SNES n64 CG Wii vs PS1 PS2 PS3 that makes 5 vs 3 wich is not fair
u gotta compare n64 cg wii vs ps 1 2 3 and ull see how bad nintendo did in the last 10 yrs ec for wii of course
How about this:  NES, SNES, and Wii versus PS1, PS2, PS3?  This is a much more interesting fight; currently 137m vs. 233m.  I predict that The total will end up close but with the PlayStations higher; specifically, that the Wii will end up 80-100m higher than the PS3 (including its current 13m lead).  That is not enough for the selected Nintendo consoles to win, especially since the PS2 is still selling.
That in itself isn't really fair since the PS1 and the PS2 reaped the rewards of what the NES and SNES laid the groundwork for.

5 vs 3 as it may be it's the more "fair" comparison.

Otherwise it's like measuring time running through the snow... the NES and SNES went first, therefore there was less resistance for the playstation consoles.
Well, yeah, but that's no fun.  Nintendo EASILY wins the other comparison. This one is more exciting:  the Wii will help Nintendo close the gap, but by how much?  Will it be enough to make up for the lower starting point?

Here's an even crazier one:  Wii+DS vs. PS+PS2+PS3.

The PlayStations will probably get to a little under 300m; but the Nintendo consoles are wild cards.  Will the DS have a successor soon, or very far from now?  What is the true level of Wii demand in NA, and when will the system peak overall?  150m is not an outrageous Wii prediction at all for its complete lifetime (the PS2 has not yet reached its complete lifetime sales even 2 years after its gen "ended").  The DS will easily top 150m if it does not get replaced in the next few years (before 2012); or it could cap out at 120m or less if it is replaced soon.

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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

kenzomatic on 19 May 2008
Kasz216 said:
Final-Fan said:
jonager said:
u cant compare NES SNES n64 CG Wii vs PS1 PS2 PS3 that makes 5 vs 3 wich is not fair
u gotta compare n64 cg wii vs ps 1 2 3 and ull see how bad nintendo did in the last 10 yrs ec for wii of course
How about this: NES, SNES, and Wii versus PS1, PS2, PS3? This is a much more interesting fight; currently 137m vs. 233m. I predict that The total will end up close but with the PlayStations higher; specifically, that the Wii will end up 80-100m higher than the PS3 (including its current 13m lead). That is not enough for the selected Nintendo consoles to win, especially since the PS2 is still selling.

 That in itself isn't really fair since the PS1 and the PS2 reaped the rewards of what the NES and SNES laid the groundwork for.

5 vs 3 as it may be it's the more "fair" comparison. 

Otherwise it's like measuring time running through the snow... the NES and SNES went first, therefore there was less resistance for the playstation consoles. 


I have to agree with Kasz,

I mean I guess you could compare the average market percentages and that might be a little more fair.



"Back off, man. I'm a scientist."

Your theories are the worst kind of popular tripe, your methods are sloppy, and your conclusions are highly questionable! You are a poor scientist. Especially if you think the moon landing was faked.

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Sqrl on 19 May 2008

The market has been growing from generation to generation, its not really surprising that the winner of the last two generations adds up to large sales compared to the consoles that came before it. The simple fact of the matter is that there is no real way to fairly compare them as a group.
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Final-Fan on 19 May 2008
kenzomatic said:
Kasz216 said:
Final-Fan said:
jonager said:
u cant compare NES SNES n64 CG Wii vs PS1 PS2 PS3 that makes 5 vs 3 wich is not fair
u gotta compare n64 cg wii vs ps 1 2 3 and ull see how bad nintendo did in the last 10 yrs ec for wii of course
How about this: NES, SNES, and Wii versus PS1, PS2, PS3? This is a much more interesting fight; currently 137m vs. 233m. I predict that The total will end up close but with the PlayStations higher; specifically, that the Wii will end up 80-100m higher than the PS3 (including its current 13m lead). That is not enough for the selected Nintendo consoles to win, especially since the PS2 is still selling.
That in itself isn't really fair since the PS1 and the PS2 reaped the rewards of what the NES and SNES laid the groundwork for.

5 vs 3 as it may be it's the more "fair" comparison.

Otherwise it's like measuring time running through the snow... the NES and SNES went first, therefore there was less resistance for the playstation consoles.
I have to agree with Kasz,

I mean I guess you could compare the average market percentages and that might be a little more fair.
By request, but so "quick and dirty" it's probably worthless:

NES 62m
Others 13+7 (est. miscellany)
76% if 20m others

Note: This era is pretty fuzzy for counting generations; the 2600 was a highly successful zombie while the Genesis and TG16 both straddled the NES' and SNES' lifetimes. I put the TG16 and Genesis both into competition only with the SNES for this, and did not consider 2600 sales.

SNES 49m
Others 31+2+10+5 (est. miscellany)
51%

N64 33
PS 102
Others 9+5 (est. miscellany)
22%
68%

GC 22
PS2 135 (est.)
Others 25+9
12%
71%

GUESSES
Wii 150
PS3 50-70
360 40-50
63-56%
21-26%

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Linkzmax on 19 May 2008
SWA_JM_Obi-Wan said:
I do want to say this as i find this quite funny, yet interesting. when the PS3 and Wii launched. the PS2 had sold 120 million units, the GC about 25 mil and the XBOX 23 mil. That's roughly 170 million units ofr last gen. Yet I see people predicting 150 mil for the Wii, 80 Mil for the PS3 and 40-50 mil for the 360. thats like almost doubling last gen in growth. Folks if this gen sells 200-210 mil consoles, it would be considered an extremely healthy growth. I am just pointing this out to show where I think peoples thinking in regards to this ganeration in sales is a tad bit skewed.

 This generation is 129 weeks old from the launch of the 360 or 77 weeks old from the launch of the Wii and console sales total 57,370,574 units.

At 129 weeks from the launch of the PS2, console sales totaled 39,186,696.  This would mean a growth of 46%, but isn't quite a fair comparison due to PS2's staggered launch.
At 77 weeks from the launch of the XBOX, console sales totaled 64,380,925.  This would mean a decline of 11%, but isn't quite a fair comparison due to the long time between the launches of the PS2 and the XBOX comapred to the time between the launches of the 360 and the Wii.

Anyone can take those numbers and use them how they'd like to.  I myself wouldn't be all that suprised if we see total sales of 200+ mil consoles this generation.



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kenzomatic on 19 May 2008
Final-Fan said:
By request, but so "quick and dirty" it's probably worthless:

NES 62m
Others 13+7 (est. miscellany)
76% if 20m others

Note: This era is pretty fuzzy for counting generations; the 2600 was a highly successful zombie while the Genesis and TG16 both straddled the NES' and SNES' lifetimes. I put the TG16 and Genesis both into competition only with the SNES for this, and did not consider 2600 sales.

SNES 49m
Others 31+2+10+5 (est. miscellany)
51%

N64 33
PS 102
Others 9+5 (est. miscellany)
22%
68%

GC 22
PS2 135 (est.)
Others 25+9
12%
71%

GUESSES
Wii 150
PS3 50-70
360 40-50
63-56%
21-26%

Well with your numbers and averaging the selected generations market shares we get this:

NES(gen3) & SNES(gen4) = 63.5%

PS1(gen5) & PS2(gen6) = 69.5%

Average with PS3 (21-26%) and Wii (56-63%)

Nintendo = 61-63%
Sony = 53-55%



"Back off, man. I'm a scientist."

Your theories are the worst kind of popular tripe, your methods are sloppy, and your conclusions are highly questionable! You are a poor scientist. Especially if you think the moon landing was faked.

ioi + 1
MattAAron on 19 May 2008

Nintendo will catch them of course...

but man, go PS3 :)