1- Wii Fit
2- SSBB
3- MK

Since everyone and their mother is picking Wii Fit here, could someone possibly give a response to this question: Why is it that you expect Wii Fit to sell in the 10m range in just over 6 months, when Wii Play has taken 19 months to reach 12m, and at half the price?

I'm not trying to hate on the Wii Fit bandwagon (I'm planning on buying a copy myself soon), I just think it will take considerably longer to reach the same lifetime totals many are predicting by the end of 2008.

For some more numbers: to sell another 7.5m (for a total of 10m with to-date sales already) in the remaining 33 weeks this year, Wii Fit would have to average about 225k weekly sales, every week, for the rest of the year. (If you think it will do 12m this year, that rises to 288k per week. If you think 15m, it's 388k per week.) That's not impossible but... it's a very tall order indeed. I guess we'll see.

2007's top seller, Pokemon Diamond/Pearl, sold 8.73m units, for an average of 168k per week. Should be a good reference point.

@ Sulla

Yes, but it isn't any fun comming with predictions that you know will come true. Always take predictions with a grain of salt, as the predicter almost always mean a little less than what he says.

Okay, but to answer. Why is it that you expect Wii Fit to sell in the 10m range in just over 6 months, when Wii Play has taken 19 months to reach 12m, and at half the price?

Okay. I'll sum it up by region.

Japan: Wii Fit has sold 2000K over 24 weeks. That's an average of 83K/week. It has only dipped below 30K once. Let's say it maintains 25K/week for the next 25 weeks. That means 625K. Then, for the christmas weeks, it will sell 600K in total. A bit on the high side maybe, but I think 1M more is a safe bet. Total for Japan: 3M

Europe/Others: According to reports, sold out, and has sold 1.25M already. It is likely to remain around 100K for the next 5 weeks at least, making 500K more, and for the next 20 weeks, it should manage 50K/week. That makes 1.5M before chrismas. Christmas could sell 1M in Europe, but 600K is a safe bet. Total: 4M

America: Preorders already at 500K +. Sales for the first 5 weeks should be 1M (excluding pre-orders) and it should easily stable at 50K/week for the rest of the year. Totalling 2.5M before chrismas. Now, chrismas times should be 1M, but 600K is again a safe bet, totalling 3M.

Notes: "Christmas times" is about 5 weeks of time, so not just the direct christmas weeks.


Total: 10M. I might have been a bit optimistic when I said 12M, sorry.

Wii Fit is on a major rollercoaster ride here. Christmas time sales is probably is expected to be 2x-2.5x higher than regular sales. Great family game.

1. Wii Fit






2. Mario Kart
3. Brawl

1-SSBB
2-Wii Fit
3-MKWii

Since SSBB is the best game of this generation, I hope it wins in sales for Wii game this year but I think Wii Fit will beat it and Mario Kart Wii will pass it next year :( Of course, I'm getting all three games so it is not that big a deal to me.

Easy.

Wii Fit
Mario Kart
SSBB

agree