Since everyone and their mother is picking Wii Fit here, could someone possibly give a response to this question: Why is it that you expect Wii Fit to sell in the 10m range in just over 6 months, when Wii Play has taken 19 months to reach 12m, and at half the price?
I'm not trying to hate on the Wii Fit bandwagon (I'm planning on buying a copy myself soon), I just think it will take considerably longer to reach the same lifetime totals many are predicting by the end of 2008.
For some more numbers: to sell another 7.5m (for a total of 10m with to-date sales already) in the remaining 33 weeks this year, Wii Fit would have to average about 225k weekly sales, every week, for the rest of the year. (If you think it will do 12m this year, that rises to 288k per week. If you think 15m, it's 388k per week.) That's not impossible but... it's a very tall order indeed. I guess we'll see.
2007's top seller, Pokemon Diamond/Pearl, sold 8.73m units, for an average of 168k per week. Should be a good reference point.
End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)
