MK, SSBB, or Wii Fit? Who will top 2008?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

@ Sulla

Yes, but it isn't any fun comming with predictions that you know will come true. Always take predictions with a grain of salt, as the predicter almost always mean a little less than what he says.

Okay, but to answer. Why is it that you expect Wii Fit to sell in the 10m range in just over 6 months, when Wii Play has taken 19 months to reach 12m, and at half the price?

Okay. I'll sum it up by region.

Japan: Wii Fit has sold 2000K over 24 weeks. That's an average of 83K/week. It has only dipped below 30K once. Let's say it maintains 25K/week for the next 25 weeks. That means 625K. Then, for the christmas weeks, it will sell 600K in total. A bit on the high side maybe, but I think 1M more is a safe bet. Total for Japan: 3M

Europe/Others: According to reports, sold out, and has sold 1.25M already. It is likely to remain around 100K for the next 5 weeks at least, making 500K more, and for the next 20 weeks, it should manage 50K/week. That makes 1.5M before chrismas. Christmas could sell 1M in Europe, but 600K is a safe bet. Total: 4M

America: Preorders already at 500K +. Sales for the first 5 weeks should be 1M (excluding pre-orders) and it should easily stable at 50K/week for the rest of the year. Totalling 2.5M before chrismas. Now, chrismas times should be 1M, but 600K is again a safe bet, totalling 3M.

Notes: "Christmas times" is about 5 weeks of time, so not just the direct christmas weeks.


Total: 10M. I might have been a bit optimistic when I said 12M, sorry.