How much can it really sell at that price? North America's sales are always on par with shipments but when you think about it, US has a population of about 300 million, and Nintendo has already sold at least 10 million Wiis on the country (I assume the rest were sold in other countries of the Americas).

Right now there are 30 persons for every Wii in US! But of course households aren't composed by just one person (at least that's not common at all), so let's assume now that per every Wii sold there's at least 3 persons that have access to it (I think it's a bigger number than just 3).

Doing simple math we come to the conclusion that at lest 1 of every 10 households on the US has a Wii! That's a 10% of the population that has access to it!

So can the Wii sale a lot more than 10 million in the US?? sure it can, there are at least 45 million PS2s in the US and that means that at least 1 of every 2.3 househols in the US have access to a PS2 (almost 50% of US population). But the PS2 has done that through 7 years, several price cuts and a redesign!

So the Wii will keep selling out in the US for a while? My theory is that the Wii will hit a wall when it reaches 20 million units sold in the US, wich will happen in a year if not less if the production rate is raised to 2.4million units per month (this Christmas will be huge, Wii Fit will sell forever and there will be other good health concious games for the system soon).

At 20 million units sold in the US the Wii will have reached 20% of its population, and the console will just go down in sales not because people will stop wanting it, just because 250$ will be a little too much for them. Nintedo will be still shipping 2.4 million Wiis worldwide so they will have to make a price cut for the console, not just in the US but all over the world (if they only lower the price in the US europeans would be really ripped off), my theory is that the price cut will be of just 30$ because it will be an experiment that Nintendo makes just to see how the market moves, doing the cut with a big game release would be the most logical move, and then the Wii will start to sell out in the US for months until christmas 2009!

I know there must be something wrong with my theory, but please tell me what you think!

once the price goes down below $200 (which will happen next year)  LOL, sales will go through the roof.

minimum 50% of population and max 80%. ;) 150m-240m

my money is on 175 million lifetime sales.

this ain't the PS2 or PS1 or even the NES.

I just don't see Nintendo doing a 50$ price cut, a 30$ one is a much more likely, a 20$ wouldn't be enough to boost sales if the console stops selling very good IMO...

I think this would depend on the expected life cycle of the Wii. More than likely it will follow the DS model, meaning, that as demand wanes at the price level Nintendo will make a significant price drop along with a new model with some attractive improvments. This would boost demand and interest. Also Nintendo will do it at the same time they did it with DS, around June as that would take advantage of the drought months and keep the back 6 months of the year moving fast.

I also think with the price drop will be significant, probably $149.99 with Wii Sports and $229.99 for a WiiFit pack in. And I would say this is in the year 2010 or 2011.

I think the Wii will sell about 40-60 million in North America, anything above that is crazy talk.

With price cuts and great games the Wii could reach 40 million units sold in NA in about 3.5-4 years from now, 60 million seems almost impossible, I don't believe it will ever reach that number in NA unless its sold for 50$

How many people have a TV? Not only in the U.S. but in the whole world? How many people have radios? How many people have pcs? An ipod? DVD player? Reggie even said on E3 07, on this day we mark that video game systems will go along with other entertainment systems in the household. Its not the exact quote but its the same idea. YES! 45million in the US just like your analysis said isnt enough for Nintendo, even they out compete the Playstation 1 and Playstation 2. Their real vision was gaming systems to become a necessity than just a luxury just as like the TVs and radios.

Thats why they're not into high ends and theyre selling their console in a profit, thats why theyre selling their consoles for the casuals, thats why theres wii fit even they abandoning the hardcore. They want their systems not only for few people, thats why they want to sell Wiis as long as they want.

About the price, how much you pay for your HDTV? Your entertainment system? And yet people still and even you want to buy it even its just a TV in High Definition or TV with sorround sound speakers. Same applies to Wiis, it doesnt matter how much the price,as long as its a necessity they want to buy.

So in my conclusion, I think they want to sell the Wiis in 100 million people across america. Sounds weird right? But thats whats their vision anyway.

I wonder if waron's figures of Wii's end of life LTD total hardware figures of 200 million Wiis sold worldwide will be close to the mark? Check out waron's signature.

Might as well say Nintendo Wii will sell more than the combined sales of the Bible. Over one billion Bibles have been sold.

The Wii bubble is going to burst. Just accept it against all reasoning. Others have already done so.

 I've always suspected that it would drop to 50$ at some point.  When software sales mean more then console sales (profit wise).  So don't count it out.

My 60 million was really the absolute max.  I too doubt it will hit that number.  40 million seems more realistic.