I think this would depend on the expected life cycle of the Wii. More than likely it will follow the DS model, meaning, that as demand wanes at the price level Nintendo will make a significant price drop along with a new model with some attractive improvments. This would boost demand and interest. Also Nintendo will do it at the same time they did it with DS, around June as that would take advantage of the drought months and keep the back 6 months of the year moving fast.
I also think with the price drop will be significant, probably $149.99 with Wii Sports and $229.99 for a WiiFit pack in. And I would say this is in the year 2010 or 2011.
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