360s always die! RRoD!
360s always die! RRoD!
Mifely said:
The "Cell myth"? You mean the fact that parallal multi-core architectures are the future is... a myth? Intel, AMD, Sun, IBM, and every other processor manufacturer in existance don't appear to agree with you. They seem to believe in "The Cell Myth", as you call it. They're all working on simplified, 16-core processors at this moment, to beat the heat problems super-sized processors (like the P4) can't overcome with sheer muscle. They aren't trying to beat the "heat problems", the core 2 processors are actually very good for heat production. They are conceding that in many cases parellel processors scale better than massively serial ones. GPUs suffer from the same heat troubles that CPUs do, and you can't ship a console with a set of huge fans, empty airspace in the case, and special cooling units. They go in the living room, not the special air-conditioned chamber of your home that you use as a server-room, and because you spent thousands on keeping it extra cool, you also use it for gaming. They aren't going to keep getting faster without going parallel. Whats your point? GPU's are already massively parrelel in everything they do. G80 - 120 ALUs vs the gt200 - 240 ALUs. The fastest PC Graphics cards on the market today... Multiple GPUs. Increasing the number of GPUs available isn't really as difficult an architectural change as changing the CPU is, so if your argument is that MS can merely add GPUs to their existing 3-core, overheated design, and just reduce the die on the CPU to reduce heat... then that'd be a good argument... except that most console apps are limited by CPU power, not GPU power. They don't have the memory required (zillions of textures for huge multitexturing, super complex geometry, etc. take a lot of memory.. much more than the PS3 or 360 are usually able to provide, and still have a decent game) to push their GPUs to their limits and still have a decent game, really. You *can* push the GPUs too hard... but as a general rule, game developers are constantly struggling to increase performance on both the CPU and GPU -- and I would say the CPU is usually the one they work harder to improve software performance on, not the GPU. The CPU has to feed the GPU -- even the fancy GPUs on the 360 and PS3 still need to have their animation blending and physics done on the CPU before the data is pushed up the the GPU, and that's a hella lota work. There's no reason for more complex geometry on characters if you can't, for example, animate the bones in the skeleton to make it look realistic, and the big part of the expense with that is on the CPU, not the GPU. I would say that consoles are very ram limited firstly. The console developers could implement their software in more efficient ways if they weren't so constricted by ram availability. But as a general rule, its easier to scale a GPU than a CPU for the greatest effect. Furthermore a current generation Nvidia chip can do physics on die and probably a lot of the SPE work anyway, as GPUs become more programable we will see them take on a wider variety of tasks. For example, if a current Nvidia chip was installed in the PS3 instead of the RSX it could do all the physics, it would not need vertex culling from the CPU, it could possibly even do the sound as well. If you doubt my claim, step back and think about it for a second. Why do you think ported games have, thusfar, tended to be so much faster on the 360 than the PS3? The 360s GPU is perhaps *slightly* faster than the PS3s, in certain circumstances (and the reverse may be true in other circumstances)... so why do you suppose the framerate is so drastically different? Its because the GPU output dependsupon the CPU that feeds it, and porting an app that is written to run on a 3-primary core CPU, to be an app that is meant to run on a 2-HW thread CPU and 6 SPUs is difficult, and publishers often push the ports out the door because they are tired of spending money on the framerate. Perhaps the Cell isn't as good in real world circumstances as they hyped it to be. The Cell is not a good processor, its a fast processor, but not a good one. If it takes 100 hours to get 80% of the performance potential from one CPU and 100 hours to get 30% of the performance out of a CPU thats theoretically twice as fast, then its not a very good architecture in comparison. In order to be signifigantly better, as a platform, the 360 would have to change in a big way. increasing the number of cores it has to, say 6 or 8, is just going to make the chip crazy expensive and smouldering hot, if its even possible. The PS3's Cell, on the other hand, can probably up the number of SPUs very easily with smaller die sizes. It *is* a forward thinking architecture, no matter how difficult it is, for the average game development studio, to squeeze performance out of it. The cell is a scalable architecture. But your judgement that the 360 CPU will turn into an 8 core space heater is completely false. Microsoft has a number of options available to them for a 2011 release date. They control the Direct 3d 11 development process so they will know which GPUs are appropriate for their consoles. They will also know before anyone else except for the designers of these GPUS exactly how programable they will be. They also have Intel, and with their huge X86 libraries they could easily make the switch from IBM. With Intel and Nvidia going head to head over the GPGPU market space, they could also get a cheap deal on Intels "Larrabee" Their rasterization many core x86 GPU. Every developer has at some point used X86, its an even easier transistion than a Cell1 to a Cell2. Lastly they could seek out AMD for both their CPU and GPU designs. As I said, this generation is built to last, as least as far as MS is concerned, for a pretty simple reason -- heat. I think 5-7 years per console generation is a dated concept, and if you did a little research, I think you might agree. If this issue was purely a business problem, Sony and MS might very well choose to release a new console by 2011 or 2012. At this time, however, the PS3 and 360 are powerful machines, and they won't be overshadowed by successors anywhere near that soon. If there's a new console by 2012, it'll be from Nintendo. The PS3 and 360 will just be cheaper and slimmer by then. It is a dated concept! I would say 5 years is about right for a console release, 4.5 years is possible too, early 2010 would do quite nicely. I wouldn't expect a new "high-end" console until at least 2013, and the ball is in Sony's court for making an easy upgrade on their existing hardware. MS is going to have to work for it, and its going to be painful... especially when they tell the customer "Sorry, backwards compatibility... totally impossible on the new platform" -- unless they're willing to include the entirety of the 360's triple core CPU on the new design. |
Tease.
Squilliam said:
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As a final statement, I'd like to mention that I just don't think MS is dumb, when it comes to money. Why on earth would they try to up the bar on Sony by 2011, when Nintendo is the one who owns the market? The current 360 is perfectly capable of using a gimmicky pointing device as a controller, as is the PS3. I think repackaging a smaller 360 with a new control device would be much more in line with typical MS strategy (IE, Silverlight, Zune, etc. anyone?). That doesn't really qualify as the "next generation", however.
Sony tends to be the company that pushes the envelope, as opposed to being the money-seeking missile that M$ represents. They appear to believe that the high-end will always have a market, and they're right... however given the Wii's success, its not the largest market... and MS usually isn't interested in niches, if they don't already have the masses covered.
I'll re-iterate and state that I'm standing by 2013, and Sony is still going to have an easier time of it, no matter what approach you take to the issue.
How many 360's you guys believe will be sold by the end of the 360's lifetime?
How many XBox Live subscribers will there be by the end of 2012? 30 million?
@Mifely: Viral marketing?
I didn't quite follow you all the way through, first you say that this console generation broke Moores law, then you say that it's bad that 360 has multiple processors, but good when PS3 has.
When you are making your precious Cell to have more performance, you basically have 3 options to do it:
1. Increase the number of processors.
2. Increase the number of transistors on the dice.
3. Have it running on higher clockcycles.
As great as you think the Cell is, it's just a processor just like every processor before it. Whether you call it Cell or PPC doesn't have anything to do with its heat production.
If you add the number of processors, it's going to generate extra heat, just because it needs extra space, which causes more resistance per conductor and adds more latency. And the same goes for adding extra transistors. So, what to do? We slow down the clockspeed to prevent the extra heat (there goes the BC), or make smaller dices, so that we can fit more transistors and/or more prosessors for the same space, so that the heat production decreases and latencies doesn't come an issue.
Just because someone decided to do a super-sized DSP, doesn't mean it's immune to laws of the physics. Same arguments that you had against 360 goes for PS3 too.
@Squiliam: Saying that the Cell in PS3 is bad, isn't actually correct, when you take into consideration, that it was supposed to handle multiple tasks simultanously, into which it's nearly perfect.
Ei Kiinasti.
Eikä Japanisti.
Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.
Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.
bdbdbd said: @Mifely: Viral marketing? I didn't quite follow you all the way through, first you say that this console generation broke Moores law, then you say that it's bad that 360 has multiple processors, but good when PS3 has. When you are making your precious Cell to have more performance, you basically have 3 options to do it: 1. Increase the number of processors. 2. Increase the number of transistors on the dice. 3. Have it running on higher clockcycles. As great as you think the Cell is, it's just a processor just like every processor before it. Whether you call it Cell or PPC doesn't have anything to do with its heat production. If you add the number of processors, it's going to generate extra heat, just because it needs extra space, which causes more resistance per conductor and adds more latency. And the same goes for adding extra transistors. So, what to do? We slow down the clockspeed to prevent the extra heat (there goes the BC), or make smaller dices, so that we can fit more transistors and/or more prosessors for the same space, so that the heat production decreases and latencies doesn't come an issue. Just because someone decided to do a super-sized DSP, doesn't mean it's immune to laws of the physics. Same arguments that you had against 360 goes for PS3 too. @Squiliam: Saying that the Cell in PS3 is bad, isn't actually correct, when you take into consideration, that it was supposed to handle multiple tasks simultanously, into which it's nearly perfect. |
In part I agree with you, but my argument about the PS3 being able to scale more readily boils down to the Cell and the 360 core being fundamentally different types of parallel machines. The 360 uses 3 relative transitor-heavy cores to due its work, and generates a lot of heat. The Cell uses *much* simpler SPUs to do most of the work (at the expense of a lot of programming details that the extra logic on the 360 can help with), and overall, despite being much more capable when running code that works well in a parallel scheme, runs cooler than the 360.
The Cell is in a much better position to upscale, because it can afford to get a little hotter, with some process shrinking and more SPUs, whereas the 360 can't upscale as easily (this isn't to say "at all"). The reason Sony won't have trouble "upgrading" to a PS4 Cell is that its wacky programming requirements will remain the same -- the concept of localstore memory can stay the same, small processors with all their instructions and data right there, etc. All that logic dedicated to making a mondo-sized CPU (or 3) just isn't there, and PS3 apps have to be written to use the SPUs as intended, or be forced to run on the single, dual HW thread PPU. The PS3 has already headed down an upgradable architecture path, from a *software* perspective. The 360's software is going to be much more dependant on having those 3 3.2 GHz fully functional cores -- no 360 app will get by without them, plain and simple. Having to include that triple core processor into a new architecture, by 2011, is asking MS to drop a *lot* of money on something that might be worthless by 2013, whereas the PS3 can merely be scaled up for the next gen, since it already runs cooler.
I never said it was a freebie to upscale the PS3, or whatnot. Of course its a challenge -- I just think its less of one for Sony than it is for MS, and thus, given all things considered (esp. the success of the Wii), a new console generation by 2011 just doesn't seem feasible. Basically all I'm saying is that, because both machines are multi HW-thread architectures, both must retain their previous architures to upscale. I think the Cell is in a better position to upgrade than the 360 is. If every SPU had 1M of localstore memory, and that was the *only* upgrade, writing a parallel app on the PS3 would be piece of cake. That alone could make for a PS4. If you could also double the number of tiny SPUs (they really are very small, relative to the PPU and 360 cores), you would see a serious performance upgrade, and all developers would have to do, to upgrade their engines, would be to increase the number of SPU jobs they issue at once, and move even more stuff over to them, with the new, bigger localstores. Putting 6-8 big cores on the 360 processor is no joke, however, and would be very expensive, as I understand it. You could physically squeeze them onto the chip by 2011, no problem... dealing with the awesome heat that the (mostly unused, but still heat generating) extra logic bleeds out... not so easy.
Call it "viral marketing" if you like. I'm just calling it how I see it. If it bugs you that you can't think of a way for MS to upscale as easily, or my arguments just rub you that wrong way... sorry. I'm not a fan of the PS3, the 360, or the Wii, really. I just have taken note that the Cell is the processor of this current gen, that appears to be the most easily upscaled to the "next gen" -- unless you consider that the Wii can be easily upscaled into a HD platform, which of course, it can. I don't feel sad about it... sorry. MS pushed the 360 out the door to beat Sony and Nintendo to the draw, and its worked great for them thusfar. I just think Sony's plan goes forward to the next gen easier than MS's does, and that Nintendo has its work cut out, and is in the best position overall to upgrade.
If MS upgrades the 360, it'll be with a BD drive, and a MS-version of the Wiimote, along with a smaller box, and built in HDD. Plays all 360 games, and tries to challenge the Wii (because the 360s processor will be really cheap by then, presumably).
Microsoft ThWii-Sixty, by 2011. That I can totally see. Heck Nintendo might come out with a 2+ GHz SuperWii-HD to compete. But they won't really be the "next gen". Does that count? Maybe it does.
Mifely said:
As a final statement, I'd like to mention that I just don't think MS is dumb, when it comes to money. Why on earth would they try to up the bar on Sony by 2011, when Nintendo is the one who owns the market? The current 360 is perfectly capable of using a gimmicky pointing device as a controller, as is the PS3. I think repackaging a smaller 360 with a new control device would be much more in line with typical MS strategy (IE, Silverlight, Zune, etc. anyone?). That doesn't really qualify as the "next generation", however. Sony tends to be the company that pushes the envelope, as opposed to being the money-seeking missile that M$ represents. They appear to believe that the high-end will always have a market, and they're right... however given the Wii's success, its not the largest market... and MS usually isn't interested in niches, if they don't already have the masses covered.
I'll re-iterate and state that I'm standing by 2013, and Sony is still going to have an easier time of it, no matter what approach you take to the issue. |
Tease.
Well I can see the Xbox360 having a lifespan that long... as long as Sony stick to their "10-year" life for PS3. Usually companies are more or less forced to bring out new machines because of the competition, to keep up or get ahead. However, if the competition doesn't release a new machine after the standard 4-5 years, why would you? It'd be far, far more profitable to just keep going a few more years if you can, and rake in some cash when your machine has finally become rather profitable. And who knows what Nintendo'll do. Anyway, I think all 3 companies would rather have a few extra years for their consoles, because I read somewhere once that the average cost of developing a new console is more or less 1 billion dollars. Plus, the first few years are usually not very profitable, if at all (at least in MS and Sony's cases).
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Shane Kim jokes that the 360 will outlive the ps3 by a day lol
Joking aside, the 360 hasn't got the kind of userbase that the ps brand has so Microsoft is trying to build it, especially in Europe and might i add they are making strides. So to continue with this, they are going to have to try and make the 360 survive as long as possible, and the only way is by being competitive with the PS3 and Wii.
They are competing mainly with the ps3, so if ps3 will last 10 years, then Microsoft will try and do that too.