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Forums - Gaming - GTA is falling from the top 2 places in gamerankings

SilentWolf said:
Picko said:
SilentWolf said:
Picko said:
Firstly, in statistical terms OoT does not really have enough reviews for those reviews to be a reliable indicator of the games quality. Worth noting that basically no game does but the like ot OoT are particularly bad and no real meaning can be obtained by looking at the "average".

Secondly, even looking at the "raw" scores there is very little difference between any of the top ten. This is particularly so given the first point I made, there is no statistically significant difference between their raw scores and no conclusions can be made about which game is better. Sad I know.

I thought that in statistics you only needed 31(random..ish) samples to be able to safely say that you have enough to represent the whole.  If true that would put OoT at (barely) enough reviews to say that its current percentage is a good representation.

You can get by with that number but you'd rather not have too. Ideally you'd have at least 120 reviews (If I recall correctly, I don't have my books with me at the minute). The lower the number of reviews the wider the confidence intervals must be. My analysis was flawed because I applied an identical confidence interval to all games (95% confidence interval, represented by +- 1.96 standard deviations from the mean). Had I not done that the OoT result would've been a lot weaker (and so would the other games but not to the same extent).

I got the 31 sample requirement from my stats textbook, and that is the bare minimum to be able to fairly safely say that one should be close to the whole with an estimation.

By what you said then, no game(according to gamerankings) has enough reviews to have an ideal representation; The 360 version of GTA IV doesn't even have half of 120.  I know that you said 120 was just the ideal number, but having less than half of the ideal number, to me, would imply that there just isn't enough information(# of samples) to get a very reasonable and probable answer.

I do have to ask though to anyone who may know; about how many reviewers were there when OoT was released as compared to now?  I ask this because if there were simply not many reviewers then as compared to now, I don't really think it would be fair to count the small number of reviews against OoT as much since more reviewers just weren't there.  This doesn't completely excuse OoT for 32 reviews, but it would explain why.

 


I'm glad someone has their statistics book with them. I had a look at the t-distributions on Wikipedia. Here would be the adjusted analysis of the 95% confidence intervals, adjusting the numbers for the number of reviews.

GTA IV (PS3) 91.28

GTA IV (360) 90.33

OoT (N64) 91.00

SMG(Wii) 91.19

Now adjusting for statistical outliers, i.e. reviews that are too unusual to be counted we get the following:

GTA IV(PS3) 92.61

GTA IV (360) 92.44

OoT (N64) 91.00

SMG (Wii) 91.19

 So essentially the same results as I obtained before, although slightly more accurate now :)

EDIT: Probably should make it clear that these numbers are the reviews scores that we would expect 95% of all reviews to be higher than. So we expect 95% of all reviews for GTA IV (PS3) to be 92.61 or above.



 
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@Picko: Although i agree with you, but since the sample size is so small, counting the average works better. If we would have a large enough sample, single reviews that raise or lower the score wouldn't have a meaning. And one other thing is, that the reviewers are different in diffent games, when one guy rates games by his own standards and another guy with his own.

I think the various threads about where rating system fails shows us various reasons why it fails and the biggest reason where i see it failing is when we compare scores, when the score should be looked as just for the game in question. Not as "9,1 game is better than 8,9 game".



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

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bdbdbd said:
@Picko: Although i agree with you, but since the sample size is so small, counting the average works better. If we would have a large enough sample, single reviews that raise or lower the score wouldn't have a meaning. And one other thing is, that the reviewers are different in diffent games, when one guy rates games by his own standards and another guy with his own.

I think the various threads about where rating system fails shows us various reasons why it fails and the biggest reason where i see it failing is when we compare scores, when the score should be looked as just for the game in question. Not as "9,1 game is better than 8,9 game".

I agree for the most part. I hate that gamers are so obsessed with comparing games between consoles over time. A review score, at its core, is simply meant to say whether a game is good or not at the point of its release. It's practically impossible to properly compare titles over time so why bother trying? When I look at the scores for GTA IV and OoT all I really see is that they say that OoT was pretty awesome when it was released and GTA IV was pretty awesome when it was released. Nothing more and nothing less.

That said, if they are going to be obsessed with review scores they should at least look at things in a deeper way than simply averages. My brief analysis, I think, adds a little bit more to the discussion which is worthwhile to look at.



 
Debating with fanboys, its not
all that dissimilar to banging ones
head against a wall 

the x360 GTAIV just lost its spot to OOT now.



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
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lol ... pathetic thread ... hope that it will fail soon :P



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Picko said:
bdbdbd said:
@Picko: Although i agree with you, but since the sample size is so small, counting the average works better. If we would have a large enough sample, single reviews that raise or lower the score wouldn't have a meaning. And one other thing is, that the reviewers are different in diffent games, when one guy rates games by his own standards and another guy with his own.

I think the various threads about where rating system fails shows us various reasons why it fails and the biggest reason where i see it failing is when we compare scores, when the score should be looked as just for the game in question. Not as "9,1 game is better than 8,9 game".

I agree for the most part. I hate that gamers are so obsessed with comparing games between consoles over time. A review score, at its core, is simply meant to say whether a game is good or not at the point of its release. It's practically impossible to properly compare titles over time so why bother trying? When I look at the scores for GTA IV and OoT all I really see is that they say that OoT was pretty awesome when it was released and GTA IV was pretty awesome when it was released. Nothing more and nothing less.

That said, if they are going to be obsessed with review scores they should at least look at things in a deeper way than simply averages. My brief analysis, I think, adds a little bit more to the discussion which is worthwhile to look at.


Only if you care about objective numbers, not getting pwnage over the other guys. 



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

GameRankings, and Metacritic, are not 100% accurate. Why? Some games, have less reviews than others. Some reviewers, don't play the entire game. Some reviewers don't know exactly how much they like a certain game, so the score they output, my not be the exact score, sub-conscience to their mind. Like, how many times did you find it so hard to output a score on a certain game, and after you put the score, you still weren't exactly sure, if it was exactly how much you liked the game. The review sites are far, far, far from perfect. It's impossible for a game to have a perfect, numerical score, on how good it really is, unless some how, a super computer managed the output the exact numerical-score, but even it, would not be entirely perfect. However, these review sites are the best we have, and all the scores should stay where they are. None of this, "Ocarina of Time had a lower score than GTA 4, when they both had 22 reviews, so even if GTA 4 lowers, it is still better," bullshit, because that's not how it works. More people reviewed GTA 4, which means that there were more "fan-boys," and since "fan-boys" are usually the first to review the games, the concept of GTA 4 being better, when it was at 22 reviews, makes no sense. Plus, add all those other, faults, and imperfections, and you've got two big messes, so you might as well, just judge the game with a higher score, to be the superior one, if you want. I mean, the percentage of imperfection, of the total score, of all the games, may be the same anyways, so whatever. Anyways, once GTA 4's score lowers than Ocarina of Time, judging by the review sites, that's it. It's lower. No excuses. Yes, all the scores are not perfect, by they may be equally not perfect, so you might as well judge them as they are.

And I will always follow the review sites, because more opinions, are better than your opinion. If you think your opinion is so important, than become a professional reviewer, and output your score into the other scores, to alter the score, almost non-existent, closer to the score you gave. Yes, it is important for you to have an opinion, but you cannot override your opinion against many opinions. One, maybe, but not many. There is no such thing as a fact, but many opinions combined is the closest thing to a fact. Also, the only way I can have an opinion on a game, is if I pay like, $80, if it's brand new, and that is something I don't want to do, so that's another reason why I will follow the review sites, even if the scores are not practical. One more thing, the user score of Ocarina of Time ULTIMATELY CRUSHES the user score of GTA 4. Like, it's not even funny. But I go by the professional reviews, because the user scores are filled with far more fan boys.



Neos said:
the x360 GTAIV just lost its spot to OOT now.

 just noticed that too, i wonder if it'll continually fluctuate around the same score or continue on a general downwards trend from here on out



Neos said:
the x360 GTAIV just lost its spot to OOT now.

 Finally! There is justice in the world.



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UBISOFT BOYCOTT

Nintendo Zealot said:
Neos said:
the x360 GTAIV just lost its spot to OOT now.

Finally! There is justice in the world.


Okay...

 

 

Backing away...

 

 

Slowly. 



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs