@fishyjoe

please READ properly..

30K Japan......250K EU/others.....220K NA....

MGS4 - SW:

NA --- 450K

EU --- 700K

JAP --- 250K

TOTAL --- 1. 4 Million

___________-

PS3 HW:

NA --- 120K (GTA IV boost was 150K........Normal HW was 60 - 80K)

EU --- 150K (GTA IV boost was 198K..........Normal HW was 70 - 100K)

JAP --- 35K (Dynasty Warrior 6 boost was 50K BUT with a price drop.....Normal HW was 7 - 11K)

TOTAL --- 305K

Week 1 prediction:

Metal Gear Solid 4
Japan: 200,000 to 300,000
North America: 500,000 to 750,000
Others: 500,000 to 750,000
Total: 1.2 Million to 1.8 Million

PS3
Japan: 40,000 to 60,000
North America: 130,000 to 170,000
Others 130,000 to 170,000
Total: 300,000 to 400,000

I suspect for both Metal Gear Solid 4 and the PS3 there is a greater likelyhood that they will be below this range than above it.

I definitely think the PS3 numbers will be lower than that. With the GTA IV launch just a month ago and the overlapping fan bases in Western countries, I think PS3 hardware numbers will be quite a bit lower than what most people are predicting in this thread.

It's hard to draw two massive spikes like that in a little over a month with two games that appeal to many of the same people. 

So, there was a thread as I suspected... Well, anyway, heres copy-paste from my numbers.

Wait, those are Rock_no_2008's numbers? I've got to adjust my wildest numbers lower.

MGS4 must be at some 1.1M with pre-orders only when it's released (if previous numbers are correct of course). At to that sales of at least 300k, probably more, and we're at 1.4M. And that should be a safe guess (although it depends on pre-order sale numbers). We could probably add at least 600k instead of 300k and we'd have 1.7M instead of 1.4M. Still, I remain suspicious about pre-orders.

Nah, GTAIV got 2.4 (or 2.something) so MGS4 will definitely get 1.7 or more. 1.7M actually sounds pretty good.

Hardware... I don't know.... 300k total that week? Maybe 350k? Or in some miraculous case even 400k? 350k might be it because of the 80 GB bundle.

@Rocketpig

GTA & MGS DO NOT appeal to the same type of people..

I don't disagree, but I suspect that some PS3 fans are correct and the PS3 is seeing (somewhat) smaller sales at the moment because of the upcomming Metal Gear Solid 4 bundle; if you lose 10,000 sales per week for the four weeks leading up to the release of this bundle, you might see a 50,000 unit boost on the release of the bundle.

My thought process for the estimate assumed a healthy boost because of the game and a healthy boost because of the bundle; if one of those doesn't happen it will probably fall a little short of my estimate, and if neither happens the PS3 will see much lower sales than I expected.

Not to mention its the 80GB bundle which was supposedly 40% of Ps3 sales before it was discontinued

Yeah, they do. Not all of the same people, but there is a good amount of overlap there. Definitely enough to convince a fair amount of people to purchase a PS3 with GTA IV and just pick up MGS4 when it releases.

The bundles are a steal, specially in America. It's a known fact the 80GB is preferred by the American audience, exchanging a Sixaxis controller and Motorstorm for Dualshock 3 and Metal Gear Solid 4 keeping the same price, it's just insane. I don't have the data with me, but I think it's not difficult to assume this is the first time such a HIGH profile game is being bundled with a console for mass production (since Super Mario World for SNES in USA, I'd say) and it's definitely a first for a third party game.