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Forums - Gaming - "Expert" Predictions They Wish You Would Forget

this is dumb. its easy to say they're bad predictions now.

back then nobody would have said the wii would be leading. you would have been an idiot to think that.

i bet most of the rabid ninty fanboys on this site didn't be on the wii to win this gen.



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Viper1 said:
Enjoy. IDC near the bottom is the only one to even come close to a decent prediction.

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=16280


Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Kagan Research (U.S. Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 56.5%
Xbox 360 - 28.5%
Nintendo Wii - 15%

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

Citigroup (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.8 million
Sony PS3 - 11.0 million

UBS [Jan-06] (U.S. Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 23 million (43%)
Xbox 360 - 20 million (38%)
Nintendo Wii - 10 million (19%)
Total - 53 million

Friedman Billings Ramsey (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 24.6 million (40.7%)
Sony PS3 - 23.3 million (38.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 12.5 million (20.7%)
Total - 60.4 million

In-Stat (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 50%
Xbox 360 - 28.6%
Nintendo Wii - 21.2%

Wedbush Morgan Securities (U.S. and Europe Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 45%
Xbox 360 - 35%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 47%
Sony PS3 - 33%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

P.J. McNealy (Worldwide Through 2007)
Xbox 360 - 21 to 23 million
Sony PS3 - 13 to 16 million
Nintendo Wii - 12 to 14 million

Yankee Group (North America Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 30 million (44%)
Xbox 360 - 27 million (40%)
Nintendo Wii - 11 million (16%)
Total - 68 million

Nomura Securities (Worldwide Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 71 million
Nintendo Wii - 40 million

Enterbrain / Famitsu (Worldwide Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 34 million (39.1%)
Xbox 360 - 28 million (32.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (28.7%)
Total - 87 million

IDG (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 23.9 million (39.2%)
Sony PS3 - 23.5 million (38.5%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.6 million (22.3%)
Total - 61 million

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through March 2011)
Xbox 360 - 39%
Sony PS3 - 34%
Nintendo Wii - 27%

Strategy Analytics [Nov-06] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)
Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)
Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)
Total - 204.8 million

SFG Research (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 29.4 million (43.8%)
Sony PS3 - 24.2 million (36.1%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.5 million (20.1%)
Total - 67.1 million

SFG Research (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 62 million (46.6%)
Xbox 360 - 46 million (34.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (18.8%)
Total - 133 million

Screen Digest (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 42%
Sony PS3 - 38%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Screen Digest (Japan Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 64%
Nintendo Wii - 25%
Xbox 360 - 11%

IDC (Worldwide Through 2008)
Nintendo Wii - 32.1 million (37%)
Xbox 360 - 30.4 million (35%)
Sony PS3 - 24.5 million (28%)
Total - 87 million

UBS [May-07] (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 22 million (35.5%)
Sony PS3 - 21 million (33.9%)
Nintendo Wii - 19 million (30.6%)
Tolal - 62 million

Thanks to this analyst any 3rd party had faith on Wii and Wii had a very weak third party library in this first 18 months.



coolestguyever said:
this is dumb. its easy to say they're bad predictions now.

back then nobody would have said the wii would be leading. you would have been an idiot to think that.

i bet most of the rabid ninty fanboys on this site didn't be on the wii to win this gen.

As soon as I saw the Wii, I invested in Nintendo stock. I've made over 350% on my initial investment.

I guess that makes me an idiot. 

 



Phil Harrison Sony SCEE president of worldwide studios says these things, in press interviews about the Nintendo DS, at the beginning of the war

 

 

"With the DS, it's fair to say that Nintendo stepped out of the technical race and went for a feature differentiation with the touch screen, but I fear that it won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick - so the long-lasting appeal of the platform is at peril as a direct result of that."

 

 

"Nintendo knows its target audience, because it has really narrowed that down; and it's pretty much defined by a boy or girl's ability to admire Pokemon."

 

 

"The idea of a handheld rivalry with Nintendo is an irrelevance, those formats don't appear in our planning. It's not a fair comparison; not fair on them, I should stress. That sounds arrogant, maybe, but it's the truth."

 

 

Do I win this topic, lol? 



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

ZenfoldorVGI said:

Phil Harrison Sony SCEE president of worldwide studios says these things, in press interviews about the Nintendo DS, at the beginning of the war

 

 

"With the DS, it's fair to say that Nintendo stepped out of the technical race and went for a feature differentiation with the touch screen, but I fear that it won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick - so the long-lasting appeal of the platform is at peril as a direct result of that."

 

 

"Nintendo knows its target audience, because it has really narrowed that down; and it's pretty much defined by a boy or girl's ability to admire Pokemon."

 

 

"The idea of a handheld rivalry with Nintendo is an irrelevance, those formats don't appear in our planning. It's not a fair comparison; not fair on them, I should stress. That sounds arrogant, maybe, but it's the truth."

 

 

Do I win this topic, lol?


Wow, Harrison really comes across as an asshole here, especially with those last two statements.

It's funny that he said Nintendo has a very narrow target audience, when Nintendo is the innovator currently expanding the audience.  Phil Harrison should get on his knees and thank Nintendo for that, because when Sony wakes up from their current nightmare Nintendo's recent work in increasing the overall audience of gamers will help them as well as Nintendo and will be good for gamers everywhere.



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lol @ Zen

nice post :)



Proud member of the Fierce Fox Force.

 

"I strike spurs onto my Wii controller. And against Sony and MS I fling myself,
unvanquished and unyielding. 'O Wii!!!"

-The Nintendian Philosophy

coolestguyever said:
this is dumb. its easy to say they're bad predictions now.

back then nobody would have said the wii would be leading. you would have been an idiot to think that.

i bet most of the rabid ninty fanboys on this site didn't be on the wii to win this gen.

 

Actually, I played about 5 minutes of Wii Sport as soon as I could get access to one and I was convinced that this was going to be the future of gaming We had to get rid of the old fashioned hand controllers; they were a kludge to begin with. Ergonomically they were a nightmare. The only possible good thing to say about them is that they were familiar.

THIS IS SO COOL
I found the entire GameSpot April Fools Joke (Possibly the most accurate thing they ever wrote (LO))

"We expect Nintendo's Revolution, based on its price and immense catalog of downloadable games, to be the market leader by 2010," Runte told GameSpot News. "Nintendo is going to be one heck of a competitor for the gaming pie, and from the looks of it, I think they are going to get a rather huge slice."

Runte says it's not only that Nintendo has "superior strategy" and is "totally awesome"; it's Nintendo's rivals' weaknesses that give the Revolution the advantage. He dismisses the competition as a non-factor and had particularly harsh words for Sony.

"Sony has yet to come out of the pit stop after the first lap. Folks, when this race started, naysayers said Nintendo would not have enough under the engine to compete with Microsoft and Sony. Trying to one-up Nintendo like they did with them wanting to make a Revolution-style controller after it was revealed and oohed and aahed over... Nintendo is back in a big way. I think Nintendo will own them all. I believe they are on the path to domination once again. I think they finally are giving people what they want and continuing to give them things they never thought of."

-Gamespot, April Fool's Joke 2005



dib8rman said:
I'm begining to wonder in Malstrom is Will Wright incognito.

I figured this thread was going to lead into a link to that site >.> Ok so anyone know when that all was written?

It is a series of articles that I do not know when they began but they are still being written now. I highly recommend them,

 Malstrom's Articles

CONTENT
Before the Revolution
Malstrom's Casual Article Division
Blue Ocean Articles
Disruption Chronicles
Ludology


Don't forget his earlier articles, several of which predate the launch of the Wii.

http://thewiikly.zogdog.com/author.php?author=8



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.