You seriously doubt the smaller userbase?  You seriously doubt that the PS3 will sell less than 120 million?

 I seriously doubt that I can take you seriously.

how about we stop this and act the right question. What is a lifespan exactly? I'm gonna guess it has nothing to do with games.

The primary audience for the PS3 and 360 are hardcore users that care about graphics. The same people most likely to upgrade to a new system when available.

It's the casual users that keep the system around for a long time. Look at all the current best sellers for the PS2 right now. They are mostly casual and sports games. These people who keep old systems alive don't care so much about graphics.

So unless the PS3 or 360 picks up a lot of the casual audience, it's marketable lifetime is probably shorter.

i think its possible that the ps3 was intended to skip a generation. Its at least semi upgradeable and sony likes the fact that they can make money late in the generation.

I for one appreciate the fact that sony supports their consoles for a long time because as a consumer it makes my purchase more valuable. MS just dumps console support and forces you to buy new stuff just like they do with operating systems.

I see ps4 coming out 2012 or so. Maybe it will be playstation beyond or something creative and not a number

Don't fear the 10 year plan. Embrace it. Love it. Become one with it.

Here is an article and a video interview with Hirai saying the same thing.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7387628.stm 

I've said it before, I'll say it again, the only way PS3 can have a REAL 10 year lifespan is if Microsoft drops out of the console wars. Otherwise the Xbox720 will be brought out and it'll be able to completely outclass everything the PS3 can do because it's had 5 years worth of advancements to choose from.

 The graphics are good enough until xbox 720 comes out and blows away the PS3.

I think we might be approaching the point where graphics must be deferred to good and creative games. I don't necessarily mean games like Wii Fit, just that imagination is a much more lucrative road to go down than graphics alone. Although there's nothing wrong with trying to up the pretty factor. This is the first time a Playstation has had trouble, I believe we will see a modified response as a result next gen. Just like Ninty had to adjust to avoid extending their 10-year beat down.

You are completely wrong on every level.

First off the XBOX720 would be as much as at least the 360 was on launch, so around 500 dollars while the PS3 will be far enough into its cycle to be easily at the 199-299 price point. (2-3 years from now) Lets be safe and say 300 dollars. So while MAYBE the 720 could do more then the PS3, it would cost almost twice as much, and the development costs would be astronomical for it again, while the same costs on the PS3 would be far, far lower.

Its library would be around 10 titles big, while the PS3 in 2-3 years will have hundreds of HD titles that would (as 3rd generation games at least) look better then anything on the new 720. (production values take a while to hit full potential).

Also while the 720 would not only be competeing with the PS3 at 300 dollars, it would be competeing with the 360 still, at a lower price point. Microsoft would effectively split their base with at least two technologically simular, far cheaper competitors on the market, one being themselves cannibalizing the new system.

Everything you just said would just lead to Sony destroying Microsoft and their new console. This is why I feel that Microsoft is actually in a damned if you do, damned if you dont situation. their console is not as powerful as the PS3, it doesnt have the disc storage it needs to continue to get Multiplat games (not for long at least) and it has the nasty habit of dying. So they are of course going to want to release the next console as soon as possible.

However the PS3 is holding all the cards, if Sony is serious that the PS3 will be support for at the min 10 years, the XBOX360 has to stay on the market for at least 8 to 9 years to avoid dropping a high priced, high risk console into the market to compete against the PS3 and the 360 and the Wii all at the same time and all at much lower cost points with better installed libraries But at that point the 360's hardware would have been maxed out years earlier showing little progress against what Im sure most reasonable people can agree is just a more powerful/future forward system.

See the catch? Caught between a rock and a hard place. This is why I feel the 360 might actually break Microsofts console divisions back. Maybe.