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The primary audience for the PS3 and 360 are hardcore users that care about graphics. The same people most likely to upgrade to a new system when available.

It's the casual users that keep the system around for a long time. Look at all the current best sellers for the PS2 right now. They are mostly casual and sports games. These people who keep old systems alive don't care so much about graphics.

So unless the PS3 or 360 picks up a lot of the casual audience, it's marketable lifetime is probably shorter.