*Sigh* people, you can't look at nothing but first day sales and jump to the biggest in the franchise from there.  No GTA game in history has sold 11 million in 4 months.  Not even close.  I know it's easy to get caught in hype, but please sit back and examine some data first. 

You are saying it will outsell San Andreas.  You are saying a game released on a userbase of 30 million on consoles that cost nearly twice as much as the PS2 did when GTA:SA was released will outsell a game released on the PS2 with a userbase of nearly 100 million.  Please just take a few moments to consider that statement before continuing this discussion. 

Le0-j you have made so many BS prediction I do not know where to start... LOL able ones would be GTPro would push PS3 hardware over 200k... GTPro would sell 250k week 1 in Japan...

This game could sell 20 million lifetime on PS360 combined, but it is doubtful. 15 million is a lock imo however.

I think Naz is right, GTA4 will not be at 11 million WW heading into the holidays season. GTA 4 will be more frontloaded than the PS2 GTAs. The PS3 and 360 are both VERY hardcore.

The 55/45 split sounds reasonable because the PS3 has about 45% market share in the UK (not including the Wii, because GTAIV is not on the Wii).

What's so crazy about a prediction of 11m? In case you guys haven't been paying attention, the combined userbase of the 360 & PS3 is a little over 30m. I think 10-12m sounds pretty generous.

this game isn't going over 10 million units combined imo. the combined userbase is just waaaaay too small.

I know Naznatips, it's like people stop buying consoles after a big game is released...

Oh wait, it's the exact opposite. Grand Theft Auto III launched so early in the PS2's life and had it sold according to the PS2's numbers at its launch, its chances for 12 million would be slim. But the userbase expanded and more people bought the system, and along with it, Grand Theft Auto III.

And there's no one type of casual. You could be talking about the Mario Party lovin' kid. The Madden-lovin' frat boy. The Cooking Mama 'lovin housewife. There are a bajillion different types of casual gamers. While I'm sure the PS3 and 360 are lacking in the Singstar/Eyetoy type audience, I doubt there's a shortage of Grand Theft Auto fans.

I know plenty of people who are willing to pick up either of the two systems just because of Grand Theft Auto. Even if it does sell less than San Andreas, it's likely that the 1 or 2 Grand Theft Auto games coming after it this generation will easily outsell San Andreas.

You can say that it will sell less than San Andreas, but come on now, 11 million? That's just terrible. Don't make any bets off of it. You know that's a silly number.

If userbase were a problem, why did Devil May Cry 4 sell so well? It might not have sold that great on each individual platform, but when you put the sales together, it's the second best in the series, and it's still selling at a decent rate.

Besides, the Wii is approaching the PS2's records with a vastly smaller userbase. And a smaller userbase is a more devoted one most of the time. 360 owners like to buy games, the attach rate is humongous. As for the PS3 side, GTA4 is in a bundle.

Considering the popularity Grand Theft Auto has built at this point, userbase shouldn't limit it all too much.

if people want it to pass 10 million combined, i think it is a limit. the game needs a VERY high attach rate to achieve that target. that, and it being a multiplatform game just dampens the attach rate aswell. with other high profile games getting released soon after, i just don't see it hapenning.

Multiplatform games have lower attach rates? That doesn't even make any sense, at least not this generation...

What are the PS3's two best selling games? Motorstorm, and Call of Duty 4, with COD4 quickly reaching the target of best selling PS3 game. Consider that Motorstorm was bundled and it already is.

Look at the 360. Halo 3 and Call of Duty 3. Not only was the Xbox brand pretty much built on Halo, but it had a humongous launch coinciding with the holiday season. And don't think that Call of Duty 4 doesn't have a chance of outselling Halo 3, it has some amazing legs.

With games like Assassin's Creed and Guitar Hero doing so well, I don't see how you can say that. Do consider that Guitar Hero III for the PS2 is now the highest selling game in the series despite the fact that the game was on several different platforms. 

Oh come on you're being ridiculous. Of course the userbase of a console when a game launches directly effects its sales.  How is that a silly number?  I'm predicting GTAIV will sell about the same as GTAIII on much more expensive consoles who's combined lifetime userbase will be signifficantly less than the PS2's. 

Am I the only reasonable human being left in this discussion?