i am not brave enough to make such a prediction but i will state this. i think that this year is going to be the biggest year for the wii sales wise, possibly 2009 but i dont think so. feel free to bash as much as you want.
| obieslut said: i am not brave enough to make such a prediction but i will state this. i think that this year is going to be the biggest year for the wii sales wise, possibly 2009 but i dont think so. feel free to bash as much as you want. |
Why would you be bashed for that? Someone might debate you but I don't think you said anything against reason from what we know.
The rEVOLution is not being televised
@ Sqrl
"However I've debunked this idea that the PS3 & Wii VS PS2 aligned launch graphs are directly indicative of future"
You are 100% correct. They are not directly indicative. I was not arguing that, and my predictions do not rest soley on VGcharz charts. See my above reply to Viper1 for more on taking into account both staggered, aligned and region specific charts.
The PS3 price is going to be more indicative of future sales than is any of those colored lines on these charts. ;)
@Viper1
Yeah... that's not the chart I was looking for. I want to track them from a 0 base starting on those dats (on a chart)... I can do it in the tables... I just don't know how to graph it. But here it is:
Worldwide Console Sales for Period Dec. 1 2007 to Current
| Console | Wii | PS3 | X360 | PS2 |
Total | 9,808,476 | 5,612,156 | 4,711,942 | 4,758,751 |
The reason I'd like to see the chart (probably week by week) is because overall growth in the same gen would be expected to be similar by 3 active competing products (growth/progress, not raw numbers). And the PS2 (being last gen) should probably be tracking behind... Or, at least, you would think. Maybe we'd start seeing hints about what the effect of the 360 coming to market 1 year early meant... Is there just one player now? Is there two? Are all three still players? Remember... so many analysts felt that this gen would END UP being 33/33/33 (or thereabouts)... Obviously both you and I are predicting something different than that (in our own different ways).
But the charts would be good for seeing the growth trends... You could then compare that to the same period from 06-07... and even go back and look at the PS2 V GC V Xbox in similar periods.
i think a few wii fanboys or realists who go by current trends and console life spans will have alot to say about me saying the wii is going to have its best sales in its 2nd year on the market
Blykmik, you might enjoy this thread.
http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=25459
Stever89 has done a wonderful job putting various sales data between into easy to digest tables and presentations. Sales trends for the past 3 generations are included.
The rEVOLution is not being televised
| blykmik said: @ Sqrl
You are 100% correct. They are not directly indicative. I was not arguing that, and my predictions do not rest soley on VGcharz charts. See my above reply to Viper1 for more on taking into account both staggered, aligned and region specific charts. The PS3 price is going to be more indicative of future sales than is any of those colored lines on these charts. ;) |
First, note that I was writing my reply when yours was posted (3 minutes apart in posting).
Second, what was the point of bringing up the charts if you believed it to be a minor indicator of the future? Perhaps I missed it but I just don't see what point you were making.
As for the price issue, its a speculative point you're making not an assured thing, wording is important 
. With that said I do think the PS3 will get a larger boost due to this, but I doubt it will be enough to ever see it past 80M lifetime, with or without a 10 year lifespan...but now we're getting into the prediction debate which I'd prefer to avoid since it's somewhat pointless.
My purpose was to stop yet another Sony domination prediction predicated on the PS2 VS PS3 aligned launch graph, nothing more.
 |
| To Each Man, Responsibility |
Wii: 120 m
PS3: 50 mil
360: 40 mil
Sqrl said:
First, note that I was writing my reply when yours was posted (3 minutes apart in posting). Second, what was the point of bringing up the charts if you believed it to be a minor indicator of the future? Perhaps I missed it but I just don't see what point you were making. As for the price issue, its a speculative point you're making not an assured thing, wording is important My purpose was to stop yet another Sony domination prediction predicated on the PS2 VS PS3 aligned launch graph, nothing more. |
Well your devotion to that cause is commended... I guess. 
I know you couldn't have seen my reply (that's why I pointed it out)... I wasn't accusing you of not reading it.
I brought up that chart hyper-linked to the words "That's tough" ... I think looking at a chart like that where you see how early in the lifespan we are compared to an honest-to-god 120 million seller is instructive. I could have just as easily linked to the American chart... but I'm sure someone would take offense that I'm a close-minded American. Tough to win when people treat their consoles like sports teams.
And I never said that sales chart were only "minor"... A wise man once said "wording is important". 
I said my predictions do not rest solely on those charts and that I felt that future pricing speculative (and ... my word "guessing") as that may be, is more important to the prediction than charting PS2 history.
This whole thread is about predictions and that is inherently speculative. I tried to make that point a few times. I also cautioned that I'm really un-clear on my Wii prediction. I do, however, feel more confident about the 360/PS3 predictions I made only because I feel they're working off of issues that are more tangible and understood, as opposed to the apparent "phenomenon" that is the Wii.
But "domination" prediction? My 2011 prediction surely has the PS3 and Wii within (granted, my own) statistical margin of error. Your Wii is safe with me.
blykmik said:
Well your devotion to that cause is commended... I guess. Who said I was devoted to it? I simply point it out when I see someone make the mistake, the "purpose" of saying something was to stop yet another ill-conceived conclusion...we have many on these boards daily, I hardly think pointing out the ones I notice is worthy of note....but I appreciate your attempt to twist this into something awkward nonetheless, it was a good attempt and I;m sure you'll either ignore it or deny it...I really don't care tho, its not substantive its just ad hominem fluff. I know you couldn't have seen my reply (that's why I pointed it out)... I wasn't accusing you of not reading it. I wasn't trying to imply you were accusing me, I was pointing it out in case you failed to notice it(as you did for me). In other words we've both been quite thorough on this part...moving on... I brought up that chart hyper-linked to the words "That's tough" ... I think looking at a chart like that where you see how early in the lifespan we are compared to an honest-to-god 120 million seller is instructive. I could have just as easily linked to the American chart... but I'm sure someone would take offense that I'm a close-minded American. Tough to win when people treat their consoles like sports teams. I agree it does have value in showing just how early we are, but it does a somewhat poor job of showing how PS2 sales increased later on and that they were fairly low initially. Someone can easily take from it that we are early but the PS3 is on track to sell as good as the PS2. And I never said that sales chart were only "minor"... A wise man once said "wording is important". This is just nitpicking, look up the definition of minor, it doesn't mean insignificant it means lesser, by your own words you thought it was a lesser portion of your basis. But all of this isn't the point I was really getting at...I honestly don't know what you were trying to do with the graph, what exactly were you trying to say? Please actually answer this question this time. This whole thread is about predictions and that is inherently speculative. I tried to make that point a few times. I also cautioned that I'm really un-clear on my Wii prediction. I do, however, feel more confident about the 360/PS3 predictions I made only because I feel they're working off of issues that are more tangible and understood, as opposed to the apparent "phenomenon" that is the Wii. As I said initially and maintain now, I've got no issue with your prediction, much less a desire to debate it. My interest was initially on the singular topic of misuse of information and it has lead on this tangent that has me curious why you brought it up. Nothing more. But "domination" prediction? My 2011 prediction surely has the PS3 and Wii within (granted, my own) statistical margin of error. Your Wii is safe with me. Perhaps I chose my words poorly there, but I was in fact referring to past usages of the chart. I'm not sure why you felt that last little jab necessary unless you really took that to heart? Either way it speaks for itself so I won't respond to it anymore than to say I'm ignoring it. |
Perhaps I misread your post but it seems you've taken a defensive and condescending tone. I hope you can get over that if you choose to reply again.
|
|
| To Each Man, Responsibility |
@ Sqrl
OK then, I'll try to "get over that". Thank-you. This doesn't have to be about conversation tone. I'm happy to let our conversation stands as recorded above.
I'll meet you back here at the end of November 2011 when the PS3 has sold 72.46 million and we can argue about who was closer.
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