Is this a fair prediction?

[blykmik]

Sqrl said:

blykmik said:

@ Sqrl

"However I've debunked this idea that the PS3 & Wii VS PS2 aligned launch graphs are directly indicative of future"

You are 100% correct. They are not directly indicative. I was not arguing that, and my predictions do not rest soley on VGcharz charts. See my above reply to Viper1 for more on taking into account both staggered, aligned and region specific charts.

The PS3 price is going to be more indicative of future sales than is any of those colored lines on these charts. ;)

First, note that I was writing my reply when yours was posted (3 minutes apart in posting).

Second, what was the point of bringing up the charts if you believed it to be a minor indicator of the future? Perhaps I missed it but I just don't see what point you were making.

As for the price issue, its a speculative point you're making not an assured thing, wording is important . With that said I do think the PS3 will get a larger boost due to this, but I doubt it will be enough to ever see it past 80M lifetime, with or without a 10 year lifespan...but now we're getting into the prediction debate which I'd prefer to avoid since it's somewhat pointless.

My purpose was to stop yet another Sony domination prediction predicated on the PS2 VS PS3 aligned launch graph, nothing more.

Well your devotion to that cause is commended... I guess. 

 I know you couldn't have seen my reply (that's why I pointed it out)... I wasn't accusing you of not reading it.

I brought up that chart hyper-linked to the words "That's tough" ... I think looking at a chart like that where you see how early in the lifespan we are compared to an honest-to-god 120 million seller is instructive.  I could have just as easily linked to the American chart... but I'm sure someone would take offense that I'm a close-minded American.  Tough to win when people treat their consoles like sports teams. 

And I never said that sales chart were only "minor"... A wise man once said "wording is important".    I said my predictions do not rest solely on those charts and that I felt that future pricing speculative (and ... my word "guessing") as that may be, is more important to the prediction than charting PS2 history.

This whole thread is about predictions and that is inherently speculative.  I tried to make that point a few times.  I also cautioned that I'm really un-clear on my Wii prediction.  I do, however, feel more confident about the 360/PS3 predictions I made only because I feel they're working off of issues that are more tangible and understood, as opposed to the apparent "phenomenon" that is the Wii.

But "domination" prediction?  My 2011 prediction surely has the PS3 and Wii within (granted, my own) statistical margin of error.  Your Wii is safe with me.