@Mike B: Now you did the same mistake as makinmusic, you took 4,5% of worlds population, which happens to be very peripheric techwise, to show how the rest 95,5%, with better infrastructure, works.

Internet definately is mostly used for browsing, but what other content is available online? Very little in comparision. So, it's not about what they want to do, but what they can do with it. Even the internet penetration is higher that could be believed fifteen years ago.

MikeB:

I think only the dumbest DVD retailers and rental services will push for Blu-Ray wihtout doing a similar push for digital, going again to the former example for Netflix, where you can rent DVDs, Blu-Ray discs and stream the film or download it to a DVR. I hadn't originally thought of it this way, but digital media can be thought of as a disruptive technology. A lot of people will end up holding the bag (DVD stores being paramount among them) as a new technology that doesn't fit in their model takes over.

Technical issues: DVD/Blu-ray player won't read disks? Disks scratched? Player won't eject? Granted internet service is can be pretty spotty, but the above things are just as likely to happen as HDD dying. As for the 360 dying--this was never meant to be a "XBox live movie downloads will work better than Blu-Ray" argument. Everything MS does turns to buggy-ness. More just a look at Blu-Ray vs. digital media in the abstract.

As for issues of ease of download and size worries, you can look to the old canard of technological advancement increasing exponentially every 18 months (I forget who said it first). This time 10 years ago a 800MB harddrive was more than enough. This time 5 years ago 15GB for anyone not editing digital video was absurdly huge for a HDD. Right now you can buy a 1.5TB HDD for $500, or a 60GB iPod for $400. In three or four years time that'll most likely increase to a 50TB HDD for a similar price. Storage for downloaded movies, which even at Blu-Ray quality is most likely below 25GB (since room needs to be taken up by special features) will not be an issue. I could do the same type of comparison with bandwidth (I remember being so excited when we bought our 28.8Kbps modem. Now Prodigy and AOL will be super fast!).

And the switch from standard def to high def is not one driven by secondary markets like video games or movies (if anything, the switch is driving those markets to change, not the other way around). It's one driven by the primary use of television sets--the viewing of television. Many shows are broadcast in HD, eventually all will be, hence the switch. But the switch from standard broadcast quality to HD broadcast quality is an enormously bigger quality jump than the switch from DVD to Blu-Ray or even digital media to Blu-Ray. That's why HDTVs exist--so people can watch football games and Lost in the highest quality possible. Blu-Ray is an ancillary matter. (The swtich is really to unify broadcast formats globally, but that's another matter entirely).

@ bdbdbd

The Wii is more of a toy like nature, toys are usually designed to be cheap. The Wii is a non-factor with regard to this thread and neither is the Nintendo DS, it's not really a multi-media device.

The PS3 is a very different device, it was designed to be a long term high spec gaming device as well as a multi-media entertainment device in a much broader sense. In short, a great choice for high definition entertaiment content.

The device was not designed to be cheap for the short term, if Sony would have sold more launch units they would have made a far bigger loss than the 2 billion USD the company lost for the PS3's launch. IMO for the long run, the short term disadvantage will pale in comparison to the long term gains.

@ thread

Microsoft seems to be the main advocate of digital distribution of high definition content. But note the bulk of 360s sold only have a 20 GB harddrive, enough space left for maybe 1 movie stored on it in Blu-Ray quality...

The Elite sold far less units than the 20 GB variant (~90%) and even less than the core units which lack a harddrive. 120 GB is enough to store about 5 movies, so you will be deleting movies very soon. The 360 doesn't even have the option to install larger PC world harddisks like the PS3 does, so 120 GB is the max any current 360 owner will own.

MikeB said: @ bdbdbd Technical superiority definately is the reason for Wii to beat PS3 in sales. Well, this would be the case in order to make your claim true. The Wii is more of a toy like nature, toys are usually designed to be cheap. The Wii is a non-factor with regard to this thread and neither is the Nintendo DS, it's not really a multi-media device. The PS3 is a very different device, it was designed to be a long term high spec gaming device as well as a multi-media entertainmet device is a much broader sense. In short, a great choice for high definition entertaiment content. The device was not designed to be cheap for the short term, if Sony would have sold more launch units they would have made a far bigger loss than the 2 billion USD the company lost for the PS3's launch. IMO for the long run, the short term disadvantage will pale in comparison to the long term gains. @ thread Microsoft seems to be the main advocate of digital distribution of high definition content. But note the bulk of 360s sold only have a 20 GB harddrive, enough space left for maybe 1 movie stored on it in Blu-Ray quality... The Elite sold far less units than the 20 GB variant (~90%) and even less than the core units which lack a harddrive. 120 GB is enough to store about 5 movies, so you will be deleting movies very soon. The 360 doesn't even have the option to install larger PC world harddisks like the PS3 does, so 120 GB is the max any current 360 owner will own.

PS3 is the future of gaming. Wii and 360 are holding the game industry back due to storage capacity restrictions.

MikeB: Again, I'm looking outside the gaming world. Forget the XBox and it's absurdities. Much more than MS, the biggest proponents of digital media are Apple, Google, Viacom, GE, Disney, etc. It's much bigger than Sony vs. MS, or even Apple vs. MS.

Bdbdbdbd brings up a good point, which is cell phones. Digital media isn't exclusive to high end digital media--as I said before, a massive portion of the world's populace is just fine with lower quality and on small screens. Downloading to phones is a huge thing and does indeed effect the overall post-theater market (which inclused DVD, Blu-Ray and high end downloads/streams). There are literally billions of cell phones in the world. Even in the poorest places in the world, places where the rest of this argument has no meaning--where none of Blu-Ray, high end digital downloads, HD, PS3, whatever Mozambique a couple of years ago, which is one of the five poorest nations in the world, and most of the people there, if they lived in an area with electricity, had cell phones. It's penetration like that that shows the way digital media can and is revolutionizing the world. It's growing in a way that nothing like Blu-Ray can. Beyond that, in the city of Maputo in Mozambique, while no video game system is sold there and no one has better than a dinky little TV, there are internet cafes with broadband access.

@ jalsomni

Very uncommon problems. There are industry standards with regard to hardware reliability and nearly all DVD (excluding 360) and or Blu-Ray players have failure rates well within industry standards.

Blu-Ray discs don't scratch, unless you abuse it with a knife or something.

I know nobody with a broken DVD player, I know many people who's harddrive crashed. It happened to me at least 4 times, most recently a couple of months ago I had to buy a new harddrive for my PC. The dead drive was a nice 160 GB IBM drive, very good reviews and all.

The reason why DVD drives fail or have issues so much on the 360 is because they are cheap versions of PC world drives, which are not designed to spin discs continuously at high speed like is required for 360 games. So there are more severe wearing issues which will worsen in course of time, which is also one of the reasons why many people report scratched discs.

It's worth noting that the PS3's Blu-Ray drive is better at reading old scratched DVDs, there's a good chance that old PS2 games and DVDs which fail to read on the PS2 will play just fine on the PS3.

@ jalsomni

All companies including Sony are pushing for (cheaper) digital distribution. However as an additional option, just like all the other companies you mentioned above.

I bought many PSN games and I would love to download some high quality music videos to my PS3. But for instance Gran Turismo 5: Prologue sold much better on Blu-Ray disc than on the PSN and I am sure for bigger games like the full version nearly all Gran Turismo fans will want to have it on Blu-Ray disc.

MikeB said: @ jalsomni DVD/Blu-ray player won't read disks? Disks scratched? Player won't eject? Very uncommon problems. There are industry standards with regard to hardware reliability and nearly all DVD (excluding 360) and or Blu-Ray players have failure rates well within industry standards. Blu-Ray disc don't scratch, unless you abuse it with a knife or something. I know nobody with a broken DVD player, I know many people who's harddrive crashed. It happened to me at 4 times, most recently a couple of months ago I had to buy a new harddrive for my PC. The dead drive was a nice 160 GB IBM drive, very good reviews and all. The reason why DVD drives fail or have issues so much on the 360 is because they are cheap versions of PC world drives, which are not designed to spin discs continuously at high speed like is required for 360 games. So there are more severe wearing issues which will worsen in course of time, which is also one of the reasons why many people report scratched discs. It's worth noting that the PS3's Blu-Ray drive is better at reading old scratched DVDs, there's a good chance that old PS2 games and DVDs which fail to read on the PS2 will play just fine on the PS3.

I think brand might be your problem. IBM is OK, but not great. I do a lot of video editing, first on a Powerbook, now a Mac Book Pro, and have used Western Digital and LaCie drvies. I've never had one of those external hard drives die on me (my Powerbook's HDD died once, three years ago). Back when I had a PC (five years ago), my Dell's hard drive died a couple of times.

Meanwhile I've had several DVD players stop working for one reason or another. It's simple really--moving parts are much more susceptible to wear and failure than non-moving part based technology. A hardrive has many fewer moving parts than a DVD or Blu-Ray player--really, HDDs have none other than a fan.

I saw some analyst projections, that showed that the stand alone BR player will not take over PS3 markedhare untill 2016 ... And the PS3 isn't exactly flying off the shelves. But 2016? By that time, there will be better media and Digital Distribution will have taken off in a big way. Now, I'd like to see some projections on when it'll take over DvD markedshare. 2020 maybe? It's ridiculous.

Everyone in their right mind should shy away from yet another one of Sony own "special" storage devices, because while it might not go as bad as the BETAMAX, the BR will not be a viable storage device for any lenght of time.

jalsonmi said: This is an opinion post, but it's based on a good deal of knowledge so bear with me. First off, let me say this has nothing to do with Blu-Ray's advantages in the video game market. In the immediate future the ability to store so much information on a disc is a huge boon for a game, and in my opinion is the main thing the PS3 has going for it (but I'm not a huge graphics guy. So the ability to have a massive immersive world with hours and hours of game play and tons of details throughout the game in terms of story and said gameplay is much more important for me). However, when it comes to the supposed advantage the PS3 will have as a movie player and the way it will boost the console going forward, well... I'm a grad student at USC Film School. Among the many things such an education gives you, one thing you have a lot of access to is guest speakers in classes who are deeply involved in the industry. I've heard guests ranging from the former head of Paramount to the current head of the Sci Fi Chanel to the director Jason Reitman to countless experts on new media. Many of them have talked about the sea change that is going on now--the way distribution is being completely revolutionized and the imminent death of DVDs as the primary non-theater method of distribution. This last issue is borne out through the fact that after years of an explosion in DVD sales via it's packaging as a prestige item--full of special features and booklets with articles--and via it's use as an ideal manner to package television shows old and new for the consumer, DVDs sales have stagnated for the past couple of years, and are actually starting to decline. DVD is dying. However, Blu-Ray never enters the discussion. In the eyes of many in the film industry and many who watch that industry, the DVD is going the way of the CD (an industry even more in freefall than DVD is). It's killer is the exact same one as CDs, as well: the internet. According to many in the industry (again, I'm speaking of live interviews with these people, so I can't provide a link. In addition, some of the speakers have a lot riding on DVD--this is not the type of information they would give out publicly, hence my unwillingness to name some of their names) Very shortly, the primary way people will buy and consume movies is via download. The explosion of this as method of distribution can already be seen taking effect. Youtube, for one. iTunes for another. Hell, not just iTunes, but the iPhone and cell phones as a whole. In addition, networks make a good deal of money by now allowing you watch episodes of TV online (in a proprietary viewing system where you can't fast forward past commercials). Netflix, staying on the cutting edge, recently added a download feature where you can watch movies immediately, or download them to your DVR. So where does this leave Blu-Ray? For all the hubbub around the format wars, a dirty little secret of Blu-Ray is that despite winning it's growing at a much, much smaller rate than digital distribution is. Some might say there's image quality to take into account, but again we can look to CDs. The public has more than proven that they much prefer the ease of use, price and low storage requirements of MP3s over the superior audio quality as CD afford. Audio DVDs certainly failed to change this tide. Ironically, audio DVDs first popped up at the start of the MP3 revolution, just as Blu-Ray is popping up just as digital distribution of films is ramping into high gear. In addition, the obvious fact is that there's a cognitive dissonence involved. The video can only get so much better before you run into the barrior that you're still watching the film on a much smaller screen than you're supposed to be and with many fewer speakers. For those that want the true top quality film watching experience, the answer is, of course, the movie theater. Blu-Ray is most likely going to suffer the same fate as audio DVDs--it's going to be the last, dying vestige of the old system model of post-theater distribution that will not be able to fight off the entirely new, revolutionary model exploding right next to it. It is my opinion that Blu-Ray as a medium to watch movies will not be a major factor for the PS3. It's only a small factor right now, as Blu-Ray is just begnning to creep into the market as a replacement for DVD. By the time it should be poised to fully take over for DVD (which it certainly hasn't yet--most people still own a DVD player and buy DVDs, not Blu-Ray discs), giving the PS3 the biggest push via it's use as a Blu-Ray player, digital formats and dstribution will have taken over as the true replacement for the DVD. Blu-Ray will remain then, as it is now, a butique item, doing relativietly little for PS3's overall sales performance. Other than, of course, the reason some awesome ass huge ass games can be made. Thoughts?

 I think your article will be more true as time passes. For now, retail stores are going to push the new technology and try to shove it down the consumers throats. So many corporations have invested literally billions of dollars in the new format therefore, it's going to be hard for digital distribution to assert itself. I think in ten years it will dominate the market but there are certain things holding it back.

First of all, internet speeds aren't at the point where you can stream HD movies without a hitch or two. Apple and other companies that distribute digital media recognize this and as a result, do not offer HD downloads. At this point in the game, that's fine because you don't need a high resolution to enjoy a movie on an ipod, but when we are thinking about watching these movies on a 50" plasma, things will look horrible.

Another challenge that will be overcome with time is the size of the average hard-drive. Right now most will not be able to store more that 4 or 5 HD movies. Things need to get to a point where you can fit your entire library with space to spare for other applications. People are also going to need to figure out how to stream those vast amounts of data from their computer to their TV. Unless they can sync wirelessly it will be a huge problem.

I'm sure you know what's going on in the music industry with piracy and illegal downloads. I'm sure the same thing will happen to the movie industry if studios are not extremely careful. For instance, I just bought Ratatoulle off of itunes and at any point I can put the movie on a disc, give it to a friend, or upload it to limewire. If people desire they can steal any form of media they please.

You bring up many valid points but the bottom line is, digital distribution today will not meet the standards set by blu-ray movies because some areas of our technology are lagging. Many problems will solve themselves with time but that may take a up to a decade. Until then I think blu-ray discs are going to be the last movies we can physically hold.

P.S. As for it not helping the PS3, sales have been up 50% weekly since blu-ray won the format war.