leo-j said:
You mean 20 million |
I was only using the PS2 numbers.
Also, the Korean launch of the Wii is today, April 26, 2008. So that won't be reflected in the same data as the MK Wii/ GTAIV week, which begins tomorrow. Since "Others" and "American" data ends on Saturday, the Korean launch of the Wii will be in the data we get on monday (if Korea is even tracked) so that won't have an effect on MK Wii/GTA IV whose data will be in the numbers we get next monday and tuesaday (Others, and America).
PS2 userbase around the time San Andreas was released was what? 90 million or so?
PS360... About 30 million... At best both versions will sell what SA did.
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
| DMeisterJ said: Also, the Korean launch of the Wii is today, April 26, 2008. So that won't be reflected in the same data as the MK Wii/ GTAIV week, which begins tomorrow. Since "Others" and "American" data ends on Saturday, the Korean launch of the Wii will be in the data we get on monday (if Korea is even tracked) so that won't have an effect on MK Wii/GTA IV whose data will be in the numbers we get next monday and tuesaday (Others, and America). |
I thought it was the 24th? Oh, well I would assume they would buy Wiis on Day 2-8 if they do on day one.
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
@DMeisterJ: I dont ignore those facts, but the reality is that PS2 had an enormous userbase by then at least 3xPS360. Consider the game is not only for hardcores, so there might be a lot of people who wont buy GTA4 this time cause they dont own an HD console.
Still the game will sell very well, but I dont think HW numbers can match those of the Wii since Japan at least will give Wii an advantage of 70-80k over both consoles. America is releasing stock + MKWii and others are riding the wave of MKWii + Wii Fit, which by the way is sold out everywhere.
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tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."
Bets with Conegamer:
Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.
bigjon said:
I thought it was the 24th? Oh, well I would assume they would buy Wiis on Day 2-8 if they do on day one. |
But the biggest sales will be on the launch day.
Like every other console in history.
| trestres said: @DMeisterJ: I dont ignore those facts, but the reality is that PS2 had an enormous userbase by then at least 3xPS360. Consider the game is not only for hardcores, so there might be a lot of people who wont buy GTA4 this time cause they dont own an HD console. Still the game will sell very well, but I dont think HW numbers can match those of the Wii since Japan at least will give Wii an advantage of 70-80k over both consoles. America is releasing stock + MKWii and others are riding the wave of MKWii + Wii Fit, which by the way is sold out everywhere. |
More like a 35-45k average.
Golden week is here right now.
And will be reflected in Tuesday's data.
After that, back to normal.
Which is Wii at 45-50k
And PS3 at 8-10k
so, only a 35-45k advantage.
It's all up to Nintendo and supply really, if there is stock, it will sell, if there isn't it wont, but based off of the percentages gained in Others and Japan when it launched, I don't expect much.
| bigjon said: PS2 userbase around the time San Andreas was released was what? 90 million or so? PS360... About 30 million... At best both versions will sell what SA did. |
Im beting it will pass 20 million both versions combined.
GTA is bigger than it was when San ANdreas released, I never played it until the psp games, so there are people like me that are now GTA fans.
| DMeisterJ said: @ Zen Actually, I'm talking about PS360. They both have a chance of outselling Wii next week, WW. |
I very much doubt they can outsell the Wii worldwide - GTA is not releasing in Japan, and will have little impact on the sales there anyway.
The Wii should do 80k in Japan, to maybe 3-4k for 360 - so that is a nice head start.
PS3 should do 15k-20k, still giving the Wii a nice 60k head start.
If PS3 + 360 sales double next week - they are doing pretty well. Stock will be limited after all. Lets not forget there are almost 30m 360+PS3 units out there - many of which will be picking up their copy of GTA (which will also be limited in stock).
I sort of wish WiiFit launched after GTA (like 1-2 weeks), but I can understand why Ninty would do this - a lot of parents/people would be heading to games stories to pick up GTA - this will translate into a lot of promotion time for MK & WiiFit. It may also result in a lot of direct sales.
...
Going to be a huge week, that's for sure :)
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It sure will be a huge week.
That we can agree on.
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