Long life spans aren't a feature of Sony consoles, they're a feature of very succesful consoles. The PS1 and 2 were very succesful, but that's not really what's happening with the third. Total failure isn't the word I'd use either, but anyone can see the difference by now. Even Leo will hopefully shut up when he sees the release of GTA won't literally turn the charts upside-down. -_-

As for the Wii, it remains to be seen what will happen. A few months ago I made this estimate:

Scenario 1:
Nintendo releases a new console too early, third parties decide using the wiimote is too hard and keep making the same shooter over and over again, consumers suddenly start caring about HD graphics. Lifetime sales slightly under 100M.

This is the worst that can realistically happen at this point.

Scenario 2:
The Wii leads the next big leap in console generations (Atari->NES = SNES->PS1 = PS2->Wii). Third parties almost completely migrate over, cutting edge graphics lose most of their importance even in hype, and gaming becomes even more of a "normal" hobby. Wii sales around 150M.

Scenario 3:
Complete Nintendomination. Only a handful of practically second party developers are not completely Wii-exclusive, virtually every household has a Wii, even my dead grandmother gets ones, John Lucas elected President of the World. Wii sales 250M+

Back then I said the chances looked something like 20/60/20, but that was probably giving the high and low predictions too much credit. All that has really changed since then is that the low estimate is looking increasingly unlikely.

It'll be a lot easier to make long term predictions after we see the mid-term effect of GTA4 and MGS4 on PS3 sales, and hear what the development teams of those games are going to do next. So far truly excellent games on the PS3 have been few and far between, but far more common than announced new ones.

If the wii gets big in asia(which it very well could) it could sell 200 million. The Video game industry will increase by mind blowing numbers in the next ten years. More americans will buy them and so will europe but once China gets more advanced in technology they will become a huge market(possibly even India). Both countries are how Japan was 20 years ago but with 2 billion more poeple. In time the video game industry will become as big as the movie industry.

200m is a bit much,
150m seems to be a good spot where the wii might be headed in a few years, but you never know

@_A_C_E_

The N64 didn't sell as well as the PS NOT because the analog stick failed at sustaining the console. The PS had added analog sticks way before the N64 began to falter.

However, you suggest people are buying the Wii for motion control. This is technically incorrect. They are buying it for the games. The games utilize a new control input just as the N64 and DS did and both carried the control method on the strength of the games, not just the "novelty of the controller".

You're "novelty" angle would work if Wii only had one game. Then I could see how the novelty of that game would begin to lose appeal but because the Wii, like the N64 and DS, will continue to gain new games that utilize the input method, the novel affect can't wear off. How does a novelty wear off when it continually receives new product?

@Parokki

I would have to guess Scenario 2. Scenario 1 looks to have about a 10% chance of happening with Scenario 3 having about a 2% chance of happening. Not many third party devs are going to go exclusive for the Wii, especially when the 360 outsells the Wii easily in the software department, look at the attach rates, and then for Wii's attach rate look at how many games are made by Nintendo, I wouldn't want to jump into that 'exclusively' if I was a third party dev but I would most definitely make all my games that I could multi-platform.

i don't see how u think the gaming industry will grow by over 100 million from last gen

People are buying the Wii 'because' of motion controllers, not 'for' motion controllers. They don't just buy the Wii so they have a motion controller that's not what I'm saying, they buy it because that's it's central play style and it's new and it's a 'novelty'. If the Wii did not have motion controls then what else would it have going for it in comparison to the GC or N64 that would give it the sales it has now. The Wii is nothing but a more powered GC, so why is it selling? If you answer that we might be able to end this discussion.

And that last question? Bingo dude, that's what I'm saying, it continually recieves new product but again, that will wear down eventually.

It will wear down in the same fashion that any console wears down at the end of its life cycle but that's about a new console or a competitor gaining the market, not the novelty of motion controlling itself wearing down which is why I replied to you to begin with.

Wii's library of worthy games to attach (based on metacritic with a score of 75 or higher): 32

360's library: 151

So, there is 4.7 times as many games for the 360 as the wii that are worth counting toward the attach rate. Considering how close they are (sounds like you are looking at last years numbers pre holiday, not recently released numbers), then the wii is actually doing very well for attach rate. They have to make the games before people will buy them. If you multiply the wii's attach rate by 4.7, then it is killing the 360.

Another way to look at it... take the number of good games in the library and divide by attach rate and call it X. That is 1 in X games produced for the system sells. You will find the wii is doing much better for publishers when you consider the amount (or lack of) effort they put into making games for the wii.

You're forgetting a few things here.

First of all, the Wii is moving more software in absolute terms. Weekly sales on the worldwide page are almost twice as much as on the 360, and slightly greater even in the US. Attach rate doesn't really matter when the difference in user base is so big, and the 360 having been on the market for so much longer is screwing with the statistics.

Secondly, making a game on the Wii costs less than half of what it does on the HD consoles. The titles currently going neck-to-neck with the 360 and blazing past everything on the PS3 are comparatively low budget works by second rate dev teams. Imagine what the situation will look like when publishers start putting their best teams on the Wii, and giving them a serious budget. So far Tecmo is doing it with Fatal Frame 4, and Capcom with Monster Hunter 3, but that's only the beginning. 

Stuff explaining the supposed lack of quality third party games was supposed to go here, but I'm too tired to type it for the twentieth time this late at night, and getting kind of pissed off for nobody remembering it. I'm sure you'll be able to figure it out by yourself, though.   

I don't think it's unrealistic in the least to say most publishers will end up with the Wii as their primary, if not sole, platform. That's where the money, as well as the possibility to do something truly different is.